Kaczyński wants to save Nawrocki by hitting the Union

Addressing the resolution PE and Parliament to strengthen defence Europe, PiS officially adopted the "Krasnodębski Doctrine", saying that even after the Russian attack on Ukraine ‘Brussels is simply a greater threat to Polish sovereignty than Putin.” If most Poles believe this doctrine, Putin will besides win in Warsaw, as last November he won in Washington.

PiS tries to defend itself against this charge, claiming that “both resolutions hit NATO and America, and we NATO and America defend". This is simply a fiction due to the fact that the military reinforcement of Europe is supported by both the fresh NATO chief Mark Rutteas well as the NATO's absolute patriot prime minister ItalyGiorgia Meloni (Her organization supported the EP resolution while the same PiS faction together with the Confederation and the AfD against the resolution voted).

Not a "hail", but an average Polish policy

Coming from the coalition and the Prime Minister himself Donald Tusk However, the cries of “hail!” and “humble!” are typical of today's Polish policy. They have the same value as earlier ‘für Deutschland’ as Kaczyński, Moravian and Ziobrob directed at Tusk. They increase the emotional strength of our policy, destroying its substantive resources.

Kaczyński is not directed by a “treason”. He inactive believes that his return to power (or at least saving himself and the Law and Justice as the most crucial representation of the Polish right) is what is most beneficial for Poland's sovereignty. Therefore, with respect to falling quotations Karol Nawrocki and prospects of his passing from Sławomir Mentzen Jarosław Kaczyński chose to make his own organization even more akin to Confederations.

Kaczyński is convinced that on the day of voting the right-wing pensioners (more frequently utilizing the Internet, more frequently utilizing tv Republic and media Tadeusz Rydzyk) will stay faithful to him and his candidate, and a tiny part of right-wing youth, seduced by this anti-EU charge on the last straight, will return to the PiS candidate, who will be in the second round.

In the second circular Kaczyński will play the Confederate card even harder and even more without restrictions. It will let Nawrock to do anything, and Nawrocks will usage all anti-European, anti-Western, anti-Ukrainian leads with full authenticity. due to the fact that he's not actually a PiS candidate.

He is simply a candidate of prof. Andrzej Nowak and editor Paweł Lisicki, who have long made a choice against the “western civilization of death”, even if it means getting under the care of Putin’s “civilization of life”, possibly with any engagement of Trump’s “civilization of conventional values”.

Kaczyński knows that Nawrocki is not his candidate (as they would actually be his candidates Bochensky, Bogucki, Produkt and respective another more reasonable politicians of the mediate and younger generation of the PiS). On the threshold of the presidential campaign, however, Kaczyński acknowledged – possibly rationally – that in this run his candidate would no longer fight against Tusk candidate for the presidency, but the PiS in this run would fight the Confederate for which of the 2 parties would represent the full Polish right in the future.

How to save Nawrocki's campaign

Mentzen, however, is growing, through a gap in the side of the ship with the inscription "Nawrocki's presidential campaign" water is pouring in faster and Kaczyński – as usual radically and decisively – tries to patch this hole.

The tools of Kaczyński patching have two. The first one, which would be closer to him, is an effort to make Barbara Violins of the second “little Smolensk”.

However, while the first "big Smolensk" was a real collective trauma and deprived Kaczyński of all competitors to power over the Polish right (he only lost his brother in Smolensk, they had no specified argument either Kowal or Kamiński from ephemeral PJN, nor Kurski or Ziobro who besides tried to overthrow Kaczyński at the time), the tragic death of Barbara Skrzypek specified a political possible does not exist.

It only works on PiS-Polish pensioners, whom Kaczyński already has, and does not act at all on right-wing youth, which Kaczyński must collect from the Confederation.

So all he has left is to tighten his speech in anti-EU, anti-European, anti-Western and anti-Ukrainian policies. Especially in view of the fact that Donald Trump (another image advantage of the Polish right) with Ukraine says goodbye, and in an highly nasty way, trying to take it distant Ukraine its atomic power plants and natural materials resources.

Kaczyński hopes that specified a tightening of the anti-EU speech by the PiS (and thus his candidate) will make a confusion in the minds of Confederate supporters, which will be in the interest of the fresh weeks of the campaign, when, in addition, the strength and size of the organization apparatus, which the PiS has more extended than the Confederate, will count.

Partial helpless camera in net times

However, Kaczyński was besides wrong. The strength of a candidate, party, logo and meme on social media present is more decisive than the strength of dense organization cameras (for example, let's look at Romania).

The PiS organization Camera, which has been expanded and fed for 8 years from the state budget, is dead, as the Nawrocki run shows more and more clearly. Meanwhile, Confederate and Mentzen's activity in social media present is greater than both active Trzaskowski and KO, as well as in an even greater proportion of Nawrocki and PiS activities.

This makes the fresh Confederate Line of Law and Justice alternatively of helping Nawrock aid Mentzen, and Jarosław Kaczyński has no place to retreat from his fresh radicalization.

His usefulness in this situation tries to show average (especially against the background of Andrzej Nowak and Paweł Lisicki) Mateusz Morawiecki. He got Nawrock a handshake with Giorgia Meloni, which is not a motion towards Nawrocki, but a show for Kaczyński and the PiS camera.

But again, theoretically, a very successful play in reality strikes a political void. The PiS apparatus, raised more and more in the spirit of the Confederate, like the Confederate or Ziobro, considers Morawiecki to be “the worst softest against Brussels, Berlin, Paris”. Morawiecki says everything to cover this impression, but everyone sees how it truly is with him.

On the another hand, Meloni wholeheartedly supported the resolution of the European Parliament, which is being attacked by Kaczyński, Morawiecki, Nawrocki and PiS. This causes chaos about the real intentions of the Kaczyński party, on which he loses Nawrocks again, and gains Mentzen.

Cezary Michalski