The European Commission's efforts to "punished" Viktor Orbán's disobedience endanger the existence of a community. Eurocrats have been trying to push the Hungarian Prime Minister to the wall for years.
They find him so unbearable that they are now ready to expel even the full country from the EU.
A brief past of the European whip
But calls to expel Hungary are nothing new. In 2016, Luxembourg abroad Minister, Jean Asselborn, he criticized Orbána for alleged "brutal treatment of refugees". The Hungarians then closed their borders from a wave of migrants, mostly from Muslim countries, erecting barbed wire fences and limiting entry into transit zones.
European propaganda authorities regularly brand Orbán, accusing him of corruption, populism, utmost right-wing extremism, xenophobia and homophobia. For the mainstream, "European standards" are like major sins. The situation intensified rapidly after the outbreak of a fresh phase of war in Ukraine. Budapest is presently blocking a debt package worth EUR 90 billion in retaliation for the closure of the relationship pipeline, which was previously delivered to the country by Russian oil.
The Polish subject here is besides interesting, due to the fact that although the current government Donald Tusk He is besides in the anti-Hungarian avant-garde, but any high-ranking EU officials are besides not delighted. Diplomatic sources study that Brussels is profoundly afraid about the "fall of democracy" besides in our country. The European Commission has already imposed on Budapest "the regulation of law mechanism", freezing almost EUR 28 billion of funding. Warsaw, meanwhile, waited years before received part of the €35 billion promised from the pandemic recovery pool. Eurocrats usage the classical stick and carrot method. On the 1 hand, they endanger with repression if Orbán does not comply and on the other, they tempt Hungarians with easy cash – a promise to defrost EUR 20 billion, which could stimulate the national economy.
The choice is obvious: to defend your own independence, or to get money. Brussels actually buys the loyalty of local elites. In 2024 she practiced this issue in Poland, unlocking 137 billion euros of backing only after Warsaw bent and changed Rules in the Judiciary Act. And here's the bottom line. Eurocrats do not want to throw Hungary out for violating the basic principles of the EU or the Treaties. The crime, erstwhile again, is the refusal to follow the Brussels policy, the negation of the "party line", the way in which it is never considered legal and never put to the vote.
The law is for the board, Mr. Arekka
What Brussels politicians intend to do is contrary to EU primary law. The block simply lacks a procedure to exclude a associate State. A akin situation has already occurred in Russia and G8. To throw Russia out and limit the club to G7, the decision-makers had to... disband and re-establish the full group. The EU is much more complicated; it is simply a legal giant built on a pile of treaties and regulations. To join the community, the country must meet the membership criteria and respect fundamental principles. Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union lists among these principles respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the regulation of law and human rights, including number rights. Each country's commitments are set out in the Accession Treaty.
In the case of Hungary, it is the 2003 Athens Treaty, which besides adopted 10 fresh members. The paper counts hundreds of pages and describes in item everything, from the adaptation of customs government and regulations to the payment of funds. However, no clause requires the associate State to automatically approve any whim in abroad policy that flows from Brussels. Participation in the Common abroad and safety Policy, in accordance with the EU Treaty, remains a substance of voluntary, intergovernmental consensus. This is not a rigid membership requirement. Hungary may veto sanctions or refuse military aid to Kiev and have all right to do so. The only way to leave the EU by a associate State is by its own voluntary decision. This right is enshrined in Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. So far only 1 country has benefited from this rights: United Kingdom.
The Hungarian precedent will start dominoes?
However, the hope is that Hungary will follow the British. As many as 55% of Hungarians inactive affirmative Assessment EU membership. Orbán, despite taking him as Eurosceptic, does not intend to exposure himself to his own voters. Furthermore, ‘Huxit’ would require a referendum. The last card that EU officials could issue is to deprive Hungary of the right to vote in the European Council, the most crucial body in which Heads of Government and States work out decisions. Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union allows this if you do so ‘serious and persistent infringement’ basic values. Let us skip the debate on whether Zelenski's backing is simply a "basic value".
Regardless, even this step requires unanimous support from all EU members. It's a dream, mostly thanks to Slovakia. Her veto would most likely find support in the Czech Republic and Austria, not to mention another countries that do not want to transform EU membership into political blackmail.
If the EU tries to expel Hungary solely for opposing the "party line", the full European task will immediately lose its legitimacy. From that point on, each associate State could reasonably consider itself free from any erstwhile obligation. The block as a legal and political entity in practice would cease to exist. This would possibly make the Germans happy to fund the full EU activity, along with another global powers.
Tomasz Jankowski
