Although it is good to see that, in fact, in Ukraine, we are dealing with a clash (perhaps the first of many) of the planet dominated by the Anglo-Saxons, with a planet emancipating from these influences, there is no way out of considering Russia itself, which simply deserves honest criticism.
War as a Failure
The fact that the Russian Federation is forced to usage military force to accomplish political goals in Ukraine is simply a failure of the Russian World. For we are talking about nations that lived in 1 country 30 years ago. And they were not against it. In the referendum in Ukraine, only its western part voted against the maintenance of the USSR. So how much did the Russians gotta neglect this relation to let the Ukrainians to believe that it was better to be killed for Western interests than to deal with Moscow?
At the same time, we are not talking about typical global relations. There are no shortages of household ties on the Ukraine-Russia line. People from Kiev have families in Moscow and vice versa. In the vast majority, there is besides a linguistic community. Ukrainians simply talk Russian. Not by coercion, not by calculating, but by own homes. We are besides talking about the cultural community, about cinematography, about art at a higher and lower level. Sam Volodymyr Zelenski After all, he built his position in Russian media.
So how is it that for 9 years people so close to each another shoot each other? Russia was incapable to offer Ukraine a better dream than what the Ukrainians were able to tell the West. Free trade in the European Union? American dream? It worked. Yes, to a large degree it was no "free competition", as the closing of opposition tv in Ukraine was done with silent support of the alleged free world, but the fact is: Russia lost only the fight for souls for 30 years. Despite a much better starting position.
Special Military Operation as a Mirror
I'm not going to fool around here like all the Wolskies, the Pupils and the Violins and pretend I know something about Russian staff plans. I share the view of many Western commentators that Russia will win this war sooner or later. It has more resources and does not gotta trust on deceptive external support. But it does not change the fact that fewer would have assumed specified a script before February 24, 2022. War lasts over a year. Russian diplomacy, believing in the success of the negotiations, led to a "gift of goodwill" to retreat its own troops from Kiev. The effect? Only the dare of the enemy.
And then there were Ukrainian attacks. Almost the full Kharkiv region and northern part of the Kherson region returned to control of Kiev. The nationalist revenge began on the population, which mostly believed that the Russian army would defend it from the minute of occupying these territories. He won't believe it again. And anyway, it's definitely less.
Sure, the Russians have captured Soliedar, they'll shortly have Bachmut. possibly they'll decision on. most likely all over Donbas, who knows if it's Dniepr. but it's all happening at the expense of thousands of lives. The russian Union exposed problems with the interior organisation of the Russian Federation. I've been asked many times if Vladimir Putin He's actually fighting oligarchy. And I always said yes, but besides slow. due to the fact that it was only a bucket of cold water in the form of defeats on the front that made the elites in the Kremlin aware that it was time to decision distant from solutions suggested by Western “advisers”. Better late than never, but it inactive costs.
Where are we on the plan?
Returning to Polish-speaking wisemen who know what the Kremlin is planning, the fact is that most likely the Russians do not know what they want from Ukraine. Not in military terms, but in political and identity terms. It is simply a sea of so many contradictions that even from the Russophile position it would be hard to dig out any logical structure.
On the 1 hand, we have a model attitude towards Ukrainian refugees who enter Russia without a problem. No persecution of Ukrainian language. Highlighting the brotherhood between both nations at all turn, and even the heroism of Ukrainian soldiers. It would seem that this is simply a strategy of bringing the Ukrainians to their side. But at the same time we have the bordering of Ukraine's territory from the regions. Joining them as “the eternal Russian”. I'm so sorry, but you can't take distant your neighbor's land and then make a relationship pact.
No projects
But there are no another projects either. There is no promotion of fresh Russian or insignificant Russian identity. Rusins, skeptical of neo-banderism, are omitted. Nothing comes out of Moscow that could be an alternate to Ukrainianism (which would make sense if this statehood had decided to negate). Procremlovian “whites” who publically betrayed their belief that the Kievians would hang white-blue-red flags in view of Russian troops turned out to be completely detached from reality. Contrary to Western propaganda, of course there are no shortages of Ukrainians supporting the Russians, but in the vast majority they mention to the russian identity, not any deluded Tsar empire. Moreover, even Russian soldiers wear a red flag alternatively than a tricolour. I don't know if this means that the russian task was someway sociotechnical, but it surely negatively verifies the attractiveness of the Russian Federation outside the state.
Yes, the multipolar planet is born. Yes, Russia is fighting for its position in it now. But peculiar Military Operations has besides exposed a number of problems that Russia has to deal with on its own. It is not that the Russian nation lacks intelligent people who perceive and realize the issues described, but they are surely underrepresented in the circles of state authorities.
Tomasz Jankowski
