There are regions in the planet where tensions increase, although in Poland there is small talk about them. We focus mainly on national issues and the immediate surroundings. 1 specified inflammatory point remains the mediate East – an area that can have a crucial impact on global security, including ours.
Today, peculiar attention should be paid to the risks associated with the situation in the mediate East. Currently, we are heavy absorbed in the past elections and the ongoing war in Ukraine, which, although inactive threatening to escalate into a wider conflict, seems, at least in the close term, to stabilise somewhat. Of course, I would not be besides optimistic; in my opinion, the war will proceed at least until the end of this year. But hopefully it will end earlier – that is what we would all want for.
Meanwhile, there are also regions of the world, where tensions increase, although in Poland there is small talk about them. We focus mainly on national issues and the immediate surroundings. 1 specified inflammatory point remains the mediate East – an area that can have a crucial impact on global security, including ours.
Iran and atomic threat
Negotiations are presently underway between Iran and the United States on Iran's atomic programme. This country has been working intensively on atomic technology since the late 1990s. Although in 2003, the spiritual leader of Iran found atomic weapons to be contrary to Islam's teachings and the program officially halted, method infrastructure and weapon production facilities were further developed.
Now Iran has accumulated over 400 kg of enriched uranium – according to Israeli intelligence, whose interest stems from the fact that Iran has consistently seen Israel as the main enemy since the muslim Revolution. Iranian officials straight declared their willingness to wipe Israel from the planet map.
Today Iran has the method ability to rapidly enrich uranium to 90 percent, essential for the production of atomic weapons. It is estimated that the amount of natural material collected would be adequate to produce at least 10 atomic warheads. The statements of erstwhile Iranian leaders, specified as president Ahmadinejad, only exacerbate concerns, saying that Israel is “a country for 1 bomb”.
Israel's consequence and regional cooperation
In fresh months Iran has carried out a massive missile-dron attack on Israel in consequence to Israeli actions in Syria. Most of the missiles were captured by Israeli forces and supported by the United States, large Britain, France, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, respective ballistic missiles hit Israel. If any of them had a atomic charge, the effects would be catastrophic.
Israel prepared for a possible attack on Iran's underground uranium retention facilities, producing specialised penetration bombs (the alleged "Papays") capable of destroying targets deep underground.
Prognosis and interests
The 5th circular of negotiations in Oman is underway. Iran signals readiness to suspend uranium enrichment programme for 1 year and to transfer any of the natural material to a deposit abroad. In return, he hopes to mitigate the sanctions that harm his economy – despite Iran's vast resources of natural gas and oil, Iran does not have the technology to effectively extract and export them. This is why it must work with Russia and China, although it is asymmetric and inefficient partnerships.
Iran besides wants to defrost financial assets, which are located, among others, in Qatar. Without the abolition of sanctions, the country is incapable to attract modern technologies or make manufacture to the degree of its potential.
Regional relations and interior tensions
Iran has a hard relation with Turkey – a historical rival whose society has seen Iran as 1 of the main threats for years. In addition, there are any 30 million Azerbaijani in Iran, a Turkish national whose rights are systematically restricted. specified cultural tensions are the origin of interior and external threats.
U.S. impact, natural materials policy and arms race
America will not abandon Israel – it is 1 of the fewer countries in the US that enjoys cross-party support. Israel receives about $10 billion of support each year, and the another is provided by the diaspora. This shows the strategical importance of this country to Washington.
The Americans are actively talking to Gulf states about expanding oil extraction. This is part of the strategy of emphasising Russia – the lower the prices of natural materials, the little Kremlin's income. This is simply a akin maneuver that contributed to the collapse of the USSR in the 1980s.
In addition, the West invests tremendous resources in the arms race – the improvement of military technologies, artificial intelligence and automation, which over the years declassifies Russia's military capabilities.
Iran and the Resistance
Iran is losing influence in the region. Hezbollah in Lebanon is weakened – its management has been liquidated and sources of backing limited. Israel supports the Lebanese army in the hope that it will strengthen control of the country and reduce the threat from the north.
Syria is no longer full influenced by Iran. Turkey, although not saying much about it in Poland, has achieved its goals there and has opened this country to the West.
Yemen crisis
The situation in Yemen destabilizes sea traffic in the Red Sea and via the Suez Canal, which has serious economical consequences – e.g. the transport of equipment from Korea to Poland lasts 20 days longer today. Huti, supported by Iran, does not have the technology to produce advanced weapons on their own – drones and rockets go to them from Tehran.
Addressing the conflict in Yemen requires ground action. Infrastructure bombings don't work. The problem is that neither side wants to endure losses. Meanwhile, the legal government in the confederate part of the country is inactive fighting and can be supported.
