After Ukrainian negotiators agreed to the US's proposed temporary ceasefire, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the ball was on Vladimir Putin's side. Her play for the Russian president, however, was easier than many thought. He wasn't aggressive, he wasn't risky. Instead, he agilely made his move, presenting his own terms for the ceasefire. This is Putin's classical play.
The Russian leader has already seen respective changes in the position of president of the United States and has frequently utilized them to accomplish what he wants. Now he wants to do the same. The most crucial question is, how will Donald Trump react? He is the 1 who yet cares about ending the war in Ukraine as shortly as possible and proving his negotiating skills.
However, on Thursday Putin showed that he understood Trump's psyche. And that he knows how to deal with him. This can be summarized in 1 conviction — praise a man, while at the same time moving him away. The erstwhile was definitely forgotten by Volodymyr Zelenski during a gathering with the Republican in the Oval Office, and was expelled from the White House. Vladimir Putin decided to play it differently.
Putin's tactics
He did not respond categorically "no" to Trump's proposals not to provoke his anger. On the contrary, he commended his diplomatic work. The proposal for a temporary ceasefire called it ‘correct’, declared that Russia ‘supports it’, but it contains besides many issues.
He mentioned, among others, that Ukrainian units were almost surrounded in the Kursk Oblast and that the Russians can force them to “give themselves or die.” “ Why should we just let them go? If we halt the war for 30 days, what does that mean? That everyone who is there will leave without a fight?
He besides stated that during a break in wartime activities Ukraine will receive weapons from the West and will be able to mobilize fresh troops. — How will organized supervision be? These are all serious questions. I think we request to talk to our American colleagues... possibly you request to have a telephone conversation with president Trump and discuss this issue with him," he said.
All of this was taken from a textbook that Putin and his abroad minister Sergey Lavrow had already utilized many times. To obscure, delay, confuse, to be patheticly dishonest, but to make your opponent wave not with a stick, but with a carrot, so you can summarize their course of action.
According to Russian plan
On 12 March, Lavrow gave an hr and a half lecture on Putin-style diplomacy, Which should be a informing to the White House. He then interviewed 3 American journalists — Mario Nawfal, Larry Johnson and Andrew Napolitano. They behaved as the Russian politician expected.
They giggling and nodding while complaining that he was erstwhile forced to usage the unisex bathroom in Scandinavia. They expressed their approval erstwhile he lamented all the injustices the West had done to his “loving country” — he mentioned, among another things, false accusations of poisoning Alexey Navalny, an effort to kill Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter, or shooting down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 aircraft.
— All of this comes down to broken promises and malicious behaviour of Europe and NATO, concluded Lavrow.
In addition to the degree of absurdity, Lavrow's argument showed that Russia plans to play with Trump as it did with erstwhile US president Barack Obama in relation to Syria. utilizing hold tactics, it prevented the US from hitting her for utilizing chemical weapons.
Of course, Trump approached the problem differently than Obama did — during his first word he ordered an air raid on a Syrian government aviation base. Putin so undoubtedly considered the fact that irritated Trump was capable of attacking. Hence, he weighs his words and responds cautiously to the proposal for a ceasefire.
So far everything seems to be going according to the Kremlin's plan. Trump stated that Putin's consequence was “very promising”. “I would like to meet him or talk to him. But we gotta make this quick," he told reporters on Thursday.
Those words are honey for Putin's ears. This besides proves that his method works and that he is able to slow Trump's enthusiasm for an agreement.
Putin's advantage
According to erstwhile Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev Putin may besides conclude that it is easy for the president of the United States to throw threats, harder — to put them into practice.
— He saw Trump endanger Canada, but erstwhile Ottawa responded with retaliatory duties, He started to retreat. and negotiate,” stated Bondarev in a conversation with POLITICO.
Ukrainian legislature Jehor Chernev was besides not amazed by Putin's reaction to Trump's proposal. - That was predictable. Putin refused to say yes, but could not say no due to Trump's possible reaction. I think he's just trying to take his time and that's why proposed additional conditions for a 30-day ceasefire said the politician.
MAXIM SHEMETOV / Pool / AFPVladimir Putin during a press conference after gathering with Alexander Lukashenko, Moscow, 13 March 2025.
He added, however, that he hoped Trump would force Putin to make a decision. “We will see what happens in the coming days. Yesterday I heard Trump already talked about additional sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sector. This is Putin's standard practice — it gives you hope that he will say yes, but then it waits to usage time to accomplish his goals. I hope Trump’s reaction will be fast enough,” added Chernev.
If not, we have a long trial ahead of us. Trump doesn't have quite a few tools to force Putin to act. Early this week, he threatened that if the Kremlin did not agree to a ceasefire, Washington would increase economical force on Russia. “I can financially do things that would be very bad for Russia. I don't want to do this due to the fact that I want to get a room. In financial terms... we could do things very bad for Russia. That would be devastating, said the Republican.
However, Moscow has already been sanctioned in virtually all possible way. Another could be applied to a fleet of shadows that helped Moscow avoid sanctions on oil exports. However, the imposition of sanctions would exacerbate the pain of American consumers who are already struggling with advanced retail prices and would lead to a global emergence in oil prices.
Washington could besides effort to extend the ban on Russian financial institutions utilizing SWIFT’s financial transaction processing strategy — so far only a fewer Russian banks. But it would be an inconvenience, not a knockout blow.
"Trump is much more afraid about this deal than Ukraine," Bondarew said. — That gives Putin the advantage.
