Substantive support: Sandra Krawczyszyn-Trash, Patryk Brush
Historical and political context
One of the key periods associated with China's direct political heritage is the period of Chinese civilian War (1927-1949) between members of the Chinese Communist organization and nationalists from the Kuomintang organization (KMT). In the meantime, the conflict was theoretically suspended for almost a decade to let both sides to fight the Japanese, who occupied Manchuria in 1931, and in fact the interior tensions and rivalry between the communists and Kuomintang were present throughout the period of suspension of the conflict, taking sometimes very violent forms. For example, the communists deliberately refrained from supporting their allies with the KMT in any clashes with the nipponese troops, which aimed at weakening the KMT's position in the future power conflict in China. Six years later, the Communist organization of China, launched an attack on Central China. After the end of planet War II and Japan's surrender in the summertime of 1945, the conflict entered a decisive phase. Communists began gradually to get territories, displacing nationalists from mainland China, and on October 1, 1949 Mao Zedong announced in Beijing the creation of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Following the defeat, the government of the Republic of China, with Chang Kai-shek leading, went to Taiwan, where they evacuated from 1.5 million to 5 million people. As a result, the population of the island increased to around 11 million[1]. After escaping to Taiwan, Chang Kaj-szek introduced a martial law on the island that lasted for 38 years. civilian and political rights were importantly reduced at the time, and the full functioning of the country was subject to global situations.
An crucial event is besides the 26th session of the UN General Assembly (25 October 1971), during which Resolution 2758 was enacted, restoring full membership rights to the United Nations[2]. The decision considered the GOC to be the sole legal typical of China to the UN, at the same time ordering the expulsion of Taiwanese representatives. The resolution yet resolved the issues of China's representation. It was clearly stated that there could be only 1 place in the UN representing China, attributed only to the PRC, which excluded the anticipation of recognising the concept of ‘two China’ or ‘one China and 1 Taiwan’[3]. The hard situation deepened the break-up of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Chinese Republic in 1979 in order to establish specified a situation from the PRC, while acknowledging its claims of sovereignty over Taiwan.
Since then, Beijing has maintained that there is only 1 Chinese country, part of which is Taiwan, considered a rebellious province. In addition, it considers the People's Republic of China to be the only legitimate government of China, which it defines as the ‘one China’ principle, and seeks to yet merge Taiwan with mainland China. Meanwhile, Taiwan, a state with a democratically elected government and a population of 23 million people, is simply a place where political leaders present different views on island position and relations with the PRC[4].
At least the 2000 elections attest to this. It was during the first time during the democratic elections that the opposition came to power, and Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), 1 of the leading opposition activists of the Democratic Progressive organization (DPP), became president of the Republic of China. These elections are considered to be a decisive turning point in the island's political life, as they were part of the vigilance of Kuomintang, the democratic transition to Taiwan[5]. His word of office was marked by opposition to the policies of 1 China. Since taking office, he has stopped the construction of a atomic power plant, refused to establish closer economical relations with China, converted to independent rhetoric, and besides agreed to redesign his national passport, adding the word "Taiwan" (中華民國) on the cover, which Kuomintang did not like[6]. Despite the assassination of his life and Vice president Annette Lu of 2004, Chen Shui-bian was re-elected president in the same year. During his second term, Chen struggled with many corruption scandals that active both himself and members of his household and close associates. Despite expanding demands for resignation, he chose to stay in office, but limiting his power to the Prime Minister. Due to constitutional restrictions, he could not apply for a 3rd term. In the March 2008 presidential election, his party, DPP, suffered a severe defeat, and the fresh president became Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) with KMT[7].
Another specified breakthrough was made only in 2016, as it was then the first female president, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) from the DPP party. The oath took place in May 2016. In December 2016, relations between Taiwan and China deteriorated as Tsai Ing-wen had a telephone conversation with US president Donald Trump. This was a breach of multi-annual diplomatic standards, as Trump became the first American leader to talk to Taiwan's president since breaking authoritative relations in 1979. In the run-up to the 2020 election, Tsai Ing-wen powerfully emphasized the independency and sovereignty of Taiwan. Her position gained a peculiar resonance among Taiwanese voters who closely followed the massive pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, where residents for many months opposed the increasing influence of Beijing's authoritarian policy. This led to another immense victory, as Tsai Ing-wen won 57% of the voter support in 2020[8].
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan has successfully utilized both as a maker of individual protective equipment (protection masks, gloves, suits, helmets) and as a maker of electronic products specified as laptops or smartphones. In addition, it is worth mentioning the increased global request for semiconductors for the production of automotive electronics, network equipment, all kinds of displays and medical equipment (respirators, thermometers, patient wellness monitoring devices) which Taiwan is simply a large manufacturer. It was these aspects that contributed to the growth of island GDP in 2020 by 3.11%[9]. At the time, China was intensively developing its armed forces, exacerbating concerns about the anticipation of invading Taiwan. In response, Taiwan increased its defence budget, spending about $16 billion on the military in 2022 and planning an additional US $8.6 billion for the next 5 years[10]. This represents a crucial increase compared to earlier years, since between 2012 and 2021, Taiwan averaged US$ 10.7 billion a year for defence funding[11].
Due to constitutional provisions, Tsai Ing-wen could not prosecute the position of president in 2024. This year's election was won by erstwhile Vice president Lai Ching-te (賴清德) of the DPP party, winning 40% of the vote.
Chinese military force in the framework of a hybrid strategy for Taiwan in 2016-2023
Chinese hybrid activities towards Taiwan have been characterised by fast evolution and multifacetedness over the last 7 years. Namely, since his election as president of Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan has struggled with both misinformation and information war, cyber attacks, military pressure, diplomatic isolation, or campaigns of influence on society.
According to an analysis of available authoritative sources, China has since 2016 repeatedly increased its arms spending. The average increase in defence backing from 2016 to 2024 is $14 billion a year. The largest increase in backing occurred between 2020 and 2021, amounting to US$28 billion.
Military expenditure of the People's Republic of China (PRC) (source: Taiwan Military Expenditure, Trading Economics, https://tradingeconomics.com/china/military-expenditure, accessed: 17.11.2024).
Successfully raising the cost of defence systems, China effectively leads to a deficiency of safety and stableness in the region, while contributing to an increase in arms spending, including Taiwan.
Taiwan military expenditure (source: Taiwan Military Expenditure, Trading Economics, https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/military-expenditure, accessed: 17.11.2024).
For Taiwan, there is an average yearly increase in militarisation backing of $1.16 billion. A crucial increase in defence spending in 2016-2023, which amounts to as much as $6.94 billion, is noticeable. This means that Taiwan's primary defence spending was on average 1.82% of GDP in 2016, while in 2023 it increased to 2.17% of GDP, showing a consistent increase in national safety spending[12].
It is besides worth mentioning the concept of the Isle Chains. Chains are natural barriers that let effective control of sea and air space. These are key locations for possible military bases, radar systems or anti-aircraft defenses. Controlling them increases both the safety of crucial maritime routes and gains strategical facilities, which strengthens defence capabilities and the possible usage of force in a peculiar region.
The area of the First Island Chain covers the area from confederate Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines to Borneo. There is besides an area called the Second Chain of Islands, i.e. the area extending from Japan, to Mariana, to fresh Guinea[13], as well as the 3rd Chain of Islands, extending further east, covering the archipelagos of Hawaii and another islands in the Pacific.
First and Second Chain of Islands (source: Lukas Kobierski, X, https://x.com/LukasKobierski/status/1553398963457634304, accessed: 30.11.2024).
Since the election as president of Tsai Ing-wen, a common mechanics of military force is the systematic conduct of military operations around the island. At the turn of 2016 and 2017, the People's Liberation Army of China conducted a series of aerial and naval maneuvers that included a violation of the site covering the First Island Chain. As part of these exercises, China's Liaoning aircraft carrier, which is considered the foundation of modern force projection at sea, took part in regular operations in the South China Sea. The ship sailed through, among others, part of the Luzon Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines. These maneuvers were recognized by strategical and military experts as a key phase in the efforts of the Chinese People's Liberation Army to make their forces. However, it is worth noting that maneuvering within the First Island Chain did not represent any strategical improvement, but alternatively simply an action of intellectual significance[14].
One of the larger maneuvers is those that were organized immediately after the visit of U.S. home talker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022. It was at this time that Chinese armed forces initiated maneuvers utilizing sharp ammunition in water areas and in airspace around the island. According to an authoritative statement, Beijing conducted long-range ammunition shooting tests during this period and ordered abroad ships and aircraft to avoid the area covered by the exercise, i.e. a 12-mile sea belt of territorial waters adjacent to busy seaways. This active a direct blockade of both sea and air[15].
The number of Chinese air region violations in Taiwan between 2020 and 2023 (source: Chinese PLA Intrusions into Taiwan’s ADIZ (2), NIDS, https://www.nids.mod.go.jp/english/publication/commentary/pdf/commentary275e.pdf, accessed: 17.11.2024).
According to the illustration above, the largest number of violations of Taiwan's airspace have been recorded by "thinkers and bombers" (pink) aircraft, while " patrol aircraft and another aircraft" (blue) have remained at about 25 units per period since August 2022, suggesting that they are regular patrol flights. There is besides a crucial increase in the presence of helicopters, transport aircraft and UAV (green) aeroplanes. As of September 2022, a steady number of UAVs began to appear, which became the main origin of violations of this class of aircraft[16].
A crucial increase in the number of Chinese airspace violations close Taiwan is linked to geopolitical events that occurred in the region. China's increased military activity in this area frequently correlates with activities in a wider regional context, specified as military exercises or crucial diplomatic steps. It is worth noting that the biggest change in the activity of “genders and bombers” aircraft occurred in August 2022, so after the aforementioned visit of the talker of the home of Representatives Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan[17]. In the case of events of April 2023, the increase in tensions associated with the intensifying of American safety alliances in Asia most likely affected China's increased military activity close Taiwan[18]. In turn, behind the increase in the number of Chinese fighters in October 2021, the United States was conducting military exercises Citadel Pacific 2021 Exercise in the area of Guam Island, which triggered China's reaction in the form of a demonstration of force in that region.
Countermeasures of Taiwan
Taiwan's defence doctrine full focuses on countering the threat from mainland China, and 1 of the key Taiwanese counter-measures against China is strengthening the defence sector through both additional backing but besides increased mobilisation. Already in 2021, government media reported that the Taiwanese authorities were planning to increase the frequency of reserve appointments in order to increase the readiness of the armed forces in the event of a possible invasion. The cyclical period (every 2 years) of appointment was besides extended from about a week to 2 weeks[19], and in 2022 the compulsory military service was extended from 4 months to a year.
The Taiwanese armed forces are now assumed to have about 169,000 active personnel and 1,660,000 reservists. Taiwan's land troops are equipped with a wide scope of combat capabilities, including about 200 multi-guided rocket systems, over 1,000 towed and self-propelled artillery units, and nearly 1,000 primary tanks. The Air Force has about 500 aircraft capable of fighting, and the Navy has a fleet of 90 submarines and submarines ready for combat. The war fleet besides includes an integrated Marine Corps. Taiwan besides has Military Gendarmery, which is simply a separate part of the armed forces and is liable for protecting key infrastructure, protecting government leaders from attacks and countering hostile activities specified as espionage and sabotage[20].
For China, the Chinese armed forces are estimated to have about 2,035 000 active personnel and 510 000 reservists. China's land troops are equipped with about 3,200 multi-guided rocket systems, over 5,000 units of self-propelled artillery and 5,000 primary tanks. The Air Force has about 2,500 aircraft capable of combat operations and the Navy has a fleet of 740 submarines and submarines[21].
An crucial aspect is besides the improvement of its own weapons industry, while emphasising the modernisation of the Navy and aviation. This is mainly due to Taiwan's location in a key Pacific region, close to crucial trade routes, including the Taiwan Straits, whose blockade may lead to the paralysis of global trade. In addition, the fact that the island's economy is heavy dependent on global trade strengthens its willingness to keep control of maritime and air space. In 2020, Taiwan launched a task to build its own submarines, besides called the IDS (Indigenous defence Submarine). The first specified ship with a Hai Kun-class diesel engine was launched in 2023, with a plan for full entry into service in 2025[22].
Another effort to modernise and strengthen Taiwan's combat capabilities was to acquisition 66 copies of recently produced F-16V from the US's Lockheed Martin group, at the price of $7.5 billion. Due to the hard geopolitical situation, this order has been importantly delayed, but it is assumed that the first fighters of this kind will arrive in Taiwan by the end of 2026. erstwhile the contract has been completed, the island will have 206 copies of F-16V. At the same time, by the end of 2023, the Taiwanese Air Force had enriched its fleet with 141 upgraded F-16 fighters, besides produced by Lockheed Martin[23]. It is besides worth mentioning the acquisition of 400 U.S. Harpoon maneuvering missiles designed to combat water targets. In addition, the United States confirmed the island's order on, among others, the HIMARS M142, 64 tactical ATACMS rocket systems, M57 Unitary missiles, or 17 artillery data management systems (IFATDS). The acquisition of 100 HCDS systems[24] was besides approved a fewer days later.
The analysis forms part of a cycle of 3 publications on Chinese hybrid activities towards Taiwan. Further articles, focusing on disinformation, propaganda and economical pressure, will shortly be published.
BIBLE
[1] The Chinese civilian War from 1927 to 1949, Integrated Educational Platform of the Ministry of National Education, https://zpe.gov.pl/a/introduction/D1G0bNB4z, accessed: 03.11.2024.
[2] U.N. Resolution 2758 (U.N. voted to Admit Communist China, expel Nationalist delegates.), American Institute in Taiwan, https://web-archive-2017.ait.org.tw/en/un-res-2758-voted-to-admit-communist-china.html, accessed: 25.11.2024.
[3] The One-China Principles is simply a Universally Recognized Basic Norm Government global Relations, Embassy of The People’s Republic Of China in the Republic of the Philippines, http://ph.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgdt/202403/t20240319_11262567.htm, accessed: 03.11.2024.
[4] Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense, Council on abroad Relations, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden, accessed: 04.11.2024.
[5] K. Gawlikowski, Presidential election in Taiwan in 2000. The problem of the unity of China and the Asian way of pursuing democracy, ‘Asia-Pacific 2000’ No 3/2000.
[6] Taiwanese passport decision denounced, ChinaDaily, https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-06/13/content_238954.htm, accessed: 28.11.2024.
[7] Chen Shui-bian, Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/biography/Chen-Shui-bian, accessed: 10.11.2024.
[8] GDP: Preliminary estimation for 2020Q4 and Outlook for 2021, Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. Taiwan, https://eng.dgbas.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=4438&s=212331, accessed: 09.11.2024.
[9] Tsai Ing-wen, Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tsai-Ing-wen, accessed: 09.11.2024.
[10] Taiwan Military Expenditure, Trading Economics, https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/military-expenditure, accessed: 12.11.2024.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Parsing Taiwanese Public Opinion and Political Debates over the defence Budget, Global Taiwan Institute, https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/08/parsing-taiwanese-public-opinion-defense-budget/, accessed: 11.12.2024.
[13] 27 billion dollars in 5 years to defend the Pacific from China, Conflicts.pl, https://www.conflikty.pl/updates/news/27-mold-defense-pacify-before-chinami/, accessed: 10.11.2024.
[14] PLA Air and Maritime Maneuvers Across the First Island Chain, CIMSEC, https://cimsec.org/pla-air-maritime-maneuvers-across-first-island-chain/, accessed: 14.11.2024.
[15] China began military exercises around Taiwan, EurActiv, https://www.euractiv.pl/section/security-i-defence/news/usa-pelosi-biden-chiny-taiwan-teaching-military-asia-xi-jinping/, accessed: 05.11.2024.
[16] Chinese PLA Intrusions into Taiwan’s ADIZ (2), NIDS, https://www.nids.mod.go.jp/english/publication/commentary/pdf/commentary275e.pdf, accessed: 17.11.2024.
[17] The Sky’s the Limit: Comparing China’s ADIZ Intrusion, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, https://amti.csis.org/the-skys-the-limit-comparing-chinas-adiz-intrusions/, accessed: 20.11.2024.
[18] Taiwan Strait Tensions Are Strength US safety Allies in Asia—and Fueling Beijing’s Fears of “Environment”, Global Taiwan Institute, https://globaltaiwan.org/2023/05/taiwan-strait-tensions-are-strengthening-us-security-alliances-in-asia-and-fueling-beijings-fears-of-environment/, accessed: 01.12.2024.
[19] Taiwan's armed. Own manufacture and buying in the USA [ANALYZA], Defence24, https://defence24.pl/geopolitics/taiwan-sie-zbroi-own-industrial-and-purchase-in-us-analysis, accessed: 11.11.2024.
[20] #KYR: Taiwan – Military, The Cove, https://cove.army.gov.au/article/kyr-taiwan-military, accessed: 17.11.2024.
[21] 2024 China Military Strength, Global Firepower 2024, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=china, 30.11.2024.
[22] Taiwan's fresh submarine. A reason for pride or a specified “terror”?, Focus, https://www.focus.pl/article/taiwan-new-submarine-hai-kun, accessed: 15.11.2024.
[23] Taiwan will receive the latest F-16, Defence24, https://defence24.pl/power-arms/taiwan-will receive-newst-f-16, accessed: 16.11.2024.
[24] Taiwan will buy 400 Harpoon missiles, Defence24, https://defence24.pl/power-arms/taiwan-kupi-400-missile-harpoon, accessed: 16.11.2024.
