"The planet under tension" is an first series of talks created by an apprentice of the Institute of fresh Europe. Its goal is to describe the most crucial challenges of the modern planet – from wars and crises to information safety and geopolitical change. The publications are created on the basis of discussions with people active in global affairs – analysts, diplomats, researchers and practitioners – in order to combine reliability with accessibility.
September protests in Nepal, driven by the Z generation, shook South Asia and led to the collapse of the government. What is behind this digital revolution and how will it affect the conflict of the powers – China and India – over influence in the region?
This is the subject of the 4th conversation in the "World under tension" cycle. Our guest is Ambassador Tomasz Łukaszuk – a political scientist, diplomat and specialist in South Asia. As a erstwhile Ambassador of Poland to India, accredited besides in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, he combines unique applicable cognition gained in the field with the technological position of the prof. of the University of Warsaw.
Veronica Barankevych: To begin with, I would like to ask the Ambassador to outline the background: what was the socio-political situation in Nepal over the last decade and what tensions led to the detonation of social anger that we witnessed a fewer weeks ago?
Amb. Tomasz Łukaszuk: Thank you for inviting me. I am glad that we can talk about a country that many of our people associate mainly with the Himalayas, climbing and trekking. However, Nepal, like Thailand or Maldives, is 1 of those places that, from our perspective, seem an attractive tourist oasis of peace, but whose political life unfortunately does not look as shown in the folders of travel agencies.
Looking at the last 3 decades, Nepal went through a civilian war erstwhile it was inactive as a kingdom that fought the Maoist guerrilla. Later, in June 2001, an unimaginable massacre occurred at the Royal Palace, in which King Birendra and most of the royal household members were killed at the hands of his son, Dipendra. In global media, it was a message of a day that rapidly disappeared, and fewer people were aware of the long-term consequences of the event. The monarchy seemed to last due to the fact that the brother of the murdered king, Gyanendra, took over. However, he shortly introduced a state of emergency and assumed absolute power, suspending civilian rights. This was another shock for Nepal's political and social life. Then the rebellion broke out and the fight for the abolition of the monarchy, resulting in the country becoming a republic.
It seemed that after all the shocks, after the first elections in 2008 and the announcement on 28 May by the National Assembly of the national Democratic Republic, the situation would stabilise. It shortly turned out, however, that the people behind this transformation had no thought of any further functioning of the state. The last twelve years, dominated by alternate governments of 3 of the same politicians, showed that Nepal had all the diseases of young political systems and countries of the Global South. I mean corruption, no thought of economical development, poorness and mass migration. 4 million Nepalis, or about 15% of the population, went abroad – mainly to Gulf countries, but besides to Europe, including Poland.
It was hoped that 25% of the GDP of migrants and the incoming fresh ideas would aid build a modern, democratic state. Unfortunately, in the meantime, in 2015, the country visited the largest earthquake in 80 years. The distribution of abroad aid revealed corruption and bad management. They have caused the effects of the disaster, acting as a powerful social shock, to plunge Nepal into an even deeper crisis and to exacerbate all the negative phenomena to date.
VB: Let's decision on to what happened a fewer weeks ago. This revolution is frequently called “the revolution of the generation of Z”. Did you think that the blockade of the net was its main fuel, and what function did nepotism and the lifestyle of the elite, referred to as “Nepokids” play in it?
Background: It is crucial to remember that, as in Europe, and in South Asia, these phenomena have their roots in a young generation that grew up in the age of a global village, net connections and the unprecedented flow of information. The effort to cut off the net was only a trigger due to the fact that social discontent had already been very large. The Z generation had already organized, had its associations and contacts not only in Nepal, but besides outside its borders. Let us remember that Nepal borders India, where society and civilian movements are very developed.
Of course, Nepalis of this generation besides observed what their generation in Sri Lanka or earlier in Bangladesh did. I think that this awareness of the possibilities of change and the sense of perpetuity decided that after the net block they decided to take this step, imitating their peers.
In terms of “Nepokids”, on platforms specified as Reddit, Instagram, TikTok and X children of well-known politicians were carrying wealth. I am talking about people like Sivana Shrestha, the daughter-in-law of the erstwhile Nepalese Prime Minister, or Shrinkhala Khatiwada, the erstwhile Miss Nepal and the celebrity. Thus nepotism and corruption became visible to all. It must be remembered that although Nepal is 1 of the poorest countries in the world, net access is almost common there and, according to various estimates, exceeds 90%. This is an unprecedented percent in many major countries.
It is simply a small, 30-million-dollar country with an area of 1 3rd of Poland, which is occupied by the highest mountains in the world. Population is concentrated mainly in respective major cities, where population density is akin to Polish. Therefore, not only the Internet, but besides everyday, direct contacts make information and social awareness spread very quickly. It is known how this nepotism and corruption must have affected people in a country where GDP per capita is at African state level. Especially since they are looking at the dynamic improvement of their neighbours – China and India.
Figure 1.Read More: Generation Z vs. "Nepo Kids" – Miss Nepal history
Source: https://www.indiatimes.com/trending/meet-nepals-nepo-kids-how-their-luxury-lifestyle-sparked-gen-z-protest-in-the-country/articleshow/124042638.html [accessed: 25.09.2025]
VB: Protests rapidly became bloody – according to available data 72 people died. How do you measure the consequence of the authorities and whether the usage of sharp ammunition can be considered a turning point that yet compromised the rulers?
Background: The usage of sharp ammunition always compromises power. However, we must remember that the police fired, and the government itself was already compromised. Shooting people, regardless of geographical latitude, always has the same effect. Of course, there is simply a question of later consequences for the rulers. There are countries that fall into even deeper authoritarianism after specified events in the improvement process, but there are countries where awareness of work for the future – for what will be tomorrow, next year or next 10 years – is much greater.
I think the military has played a key function in responding to these events. It was the origin that tried to calm the situation – the police, not the army, fired. It should be remembered that the Nepali military is considered 1 of the best in the planet – well trained and educated. His soldiers are valued not only in the region, but throughout the global community, and their contribution to peacekeeping operations and stabilising the situation in the country is invaluable. The education they received, mostly from the British, is simply a priceless experience.
If we look at the neighbouring region, South-East Asia, we will see that there the military plays a completely different role. In Nepal, the army sought to calm the mood, standing in the position that the government of the country is liable for the civilian political elite, while its task is only to uphold stableness and defence. It is different for Burma, Thailand or Indonesia. There the army is much more active in politics. Even with good intentions, this leads to a situation in which civilian elites are alienated from power, allowed only periodically, or the military is trying to steer political life so as to keep a constant influence on state management.
So it can be said that the Nepali military behaved like the army in Bangladesh last year. erstwhile removed from power after the riots of Sheikh Hasina issued an order to shoot people, the military refused to execute it and enabled her to flee the country – she is inactive in India today. It was akin in Sri Lanka. It should so be noted that the division of the civilian and military sphere in South Asia is of a different character than in Southeast Asia. In South Asia, it seems that the military is consistently trying to stay apolitical.
Figure 2. Learn more: Gurkhas – legendary Nepali warriors
Source:https://www.army.mod.uk/learn-and-explore/about-the-army/corps-regiments-and-units/brigade-of-gurkhas/gurkha-history/ [accessed: 25.09.2025]
VB: As a consequence of protests, Sushila Karki was elected as interim prime minister. These elections were different due to the fact that they were held online on the Discord platform. delight comment on what this process looked like from Nepal's perspective.
Background: To realize why elections have taken place this way, we request to look at the function of the net and social media. According to research, most generations It shapes its political views on the basis of the content it has online access to. This is simply a global phenomenon that intensified during the pandemic, erstwhile the net became a decisive origin in shaping the social and political attitudes of people born after 1990. Nepal is simply the emanation of this trend.
That's why the Discord election was natural. The old political elites were aware that this is not another arabian Spring, and the Nepalese generation Z is well organized and ready to take work for the country.
But the question remains: why Sushila Karki? Why was a typical of a generation who had fought for a democratic strategy 30 years earlier? She and her husband were then political prisoners and any of the leading figures of the movement that led to the transformation of Nepal from the kingdom into a republic. It seems to me that a certain tradition and respect for the hierarchy played a function here. Take a look at the akin situation in Bangladesh, where an aged person, Muhammad Yunus, was besides elected as a temporary government advisor. Although 1 of the candidates in Nepal was a 35-year-old movement leader, protesters felt that social reception would be better if they chose an aged person, with experience and a different position in the social hierarchy.
The choice of Discord platform was so obvious. In a country where 99% of the population has access to the network, voting online is simply the easiest way to make elections. The main part of the population is concentrated in respective of the largest cities, but to scope the others, you gotta set off in mountains, roads without asphalt, which become impassable during the rain and are exposed to mudslides and rockslides. This is another origin that makes the net an excellent tool for Nepalis to overcome the geographical barriers they face on a regular basis.
VB: Can we call this revolution a fresh digital model, driven by a young society that can no longer be controlled in a conventional way?
Background: As for the first digital revolution, it was the arabian Spring. but in the case of the arabian Spring, the generation that caused it was not well communicated then, was not well organized, had no thought of itself or of its countries. Also, civilian political elites were not so prepared at the time. Now, after all these years and especially after the pandemic, the situation has changed.
So it can be said by moving your thesis to the technological level that it is simply a fresh beginning – a fresh form of what started during the arabian Spring. The current generation is better organised, prepared and communicated, so that it can respond more rapidly and efficiently to the situations we are dealing with. I am talking about abrupt upheavals – let us not call them revolutions – but about the abrupt collapses of political systems in these countries.
VB: The fresh interim prime minister will regulation the country until the 2026 election. What do you think are the main challenges facing her, and is there a hazard that the old elite will effort to regain power?
Background: erstwhile it comes to whether the old elite will effort to regain power – we know it will. In Nepal, however, as I mentioned, the fresh political scene is better organised than in Bangladesh. That's one. I besides believe that this will be an chance for the young generation to scope for human resources abroad. I mean, they can scope for individual who lives in Europe and already has experience of functioning in a democratic state. I think it will be a chance for these changes to have a more permanent character.
The situation is somewhat different from Bangladesh, where the elections are delayed due to the fact that the political scene is dominated by 2 parties, headed by 2 women: Sheikh Hasina and Khaled Zia. Mohamed Yunus and others fear that Khaledy Zii's organization will win the election, which could lead to another coup. I'm talking about Khaled Zia trying, colloquially speaking, to get revenge, but besides to lead to persecution of Sheikh Hasina's followers. There, forces decompose about equally.
W Nepal has no specified situation. The Oligarchy has been building for the last respective years of the functioning of the republic and there is no specified bipolarity as Bangladesh. That's why I would presume that there could be a generation change in this election. Of course, it is besides a substance of a social agreement – allowing fresh forces to power, provided that it does not turn into retaliation for those who have ruled Nepal so far. Given the social model that works there, I don't think that's gonna happen. I'm talking about retaliation on oligarchs. We request to remember what I mentioned: these are people who deserve this country, who deserve the process of transforming Nepal from an absolute monarchy into a republic.
VB: How do you think this interior revolution will affect Nepal's relations with its powerful neighbours China and India? Will these countries not effort to take advantage of this situation and how large their influence in Nepal is today?
Background: Nepal, functioning between China and India, is in a situation in which the erstwhile Prime Minister was considered to be proquin, and the current interim Prime Minister, Sushila Karki, is simply a postgraduate of the Indian university in Benares. Nepal will always effort to find a balance between India and China's influence.
This balance is alternatively fragile, but we must remember that both India and China have referred to events in Nepal – I mean riots and coup – very restrained, distant and with any delay. It is known that they do not want Nepal to become a field of direct competition, and 1 of the countries – China or India – would be accused of controlling events in the country. So this is an crucial element. I believe that, despite the fact that these countries are competing for influence in Nepal, they are trying to keep this competition at a level that guarantees that it will not turn into a civilian war or a substitute war. This is besides indicated by the current actions of China and India in their relations.
It is crucial to remember Sikkim's experience from over 50 years ago. It was a kingdom akin to Nepal, where the escalation of rivalry and conflict between China and India led to Sikkim being forced to join India. In a akin geopolitical situation is Bhutan, another tiny kingdom between China and India. There the situation is akin – the Bhutanese effort not to lead to a situation where Sikki could repeat the scenario.
VB: What is the importance of changing power in Nepal for Poland and the European Union? Does it open the way for closer cooperation, specified as economical cooperation, in the future?
Background: As far as cooperation is concerned, given Nepal's socio-economic status, improvement cooperation and supporting democratic change can be the main topic. I am talking about state management and democratic institutions. specified actions have already taken place in relations with the countries of the Global South and will be akin in this case. There is an embassy of the European Union in Kathmandu – a facility that will surely engage straight in strengthening democratic institutions in Nepal.
From an economical point of view, this is of small importance. economical cooperation is secondary here. The only issue that is truly crucial for the European Union and Poland are, of course, tens of thousands of tourists who go to Nepal. The issue of ensuring their safety and supporting the construction of infrastructure, which would improve security, will surely be crucial here. For example, the airports there are considered to be 1 of the most dangerous in the world, so the European Union's efforts will surely go that way so that the infrastructure serving tourists from the EU is better than before.
Figure 3. Read more: The runway between the sky and the abyss
Source: https://simpleflying.com/lukla-airport-challenging-reasons-list/ [accessed: 25.09.2025]
Events in Nepal are only 1 of many points of inflammation on the geopolitical map. To better realize the processes that form our reality, follow the fresh Europe Institute. 'Cause the planet doesn't halt being tense.
Dr. Tomasz Łukaszuk, PhD in Political and Administration Sciences (2024), PhD in Political and Political Studies and global Studies of the University of Warsaw since 2017, formerly a associate of the abroad Service of the Republic of Poland in the rank of the Tytular Ambassador, including Ambassador to the Republic of India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka (2014-2017), manager of the Infrastructure Office of the MFA (2012-2014), manager of the Department of Asia and the Pacific Department (2010-2012), Ambassador to the Republic of Indonesia and East Timor (2005-2010), Deputy manager of the Department of Asia and the Pacific Ministry of abroad Affairs (2002-2005), Deputy Head of Mission at the Embassy in Jakarta (1998-2002). Since 2017, a associate of the planet Association of global Studies, a associate in investigation projects under the European Commission's Global India grants (2017-2021) and Eurasian Insights: Strength Indo-Pacific Studies in Europe (2018-2022). He gave lectures and lectures at conferences and seminars, among others, at ISA congresses (2019, 2023, 2024) and PTSM (2018, 2022, 2023), at universities in Heidelberg, Oxford, Leuven, fresh Delhi (JNU), Mumbai (MU), Benares (BHU), Pondicherry (PU), Dhace (DU), Jakarta (Binusa, UI). Specializes in investigation on maritime management in maritime safety, law of the sea, maritime management and environmental protection. It actively supports the improvement of cooperation with universities in Asia. He is active in many conferences devoted to Polish abroad policy and global relations in the Asia-Pacific region, including the Polish Presidency of the Council of the European Union. He is the technological guardian of the Student ellipse of the Pacific States at the Faculty of Political Sciences and global Studies. It supports the activities of the Student Forum of Young Diplomats.
