Analysis briefly:
- On 1 October 2024, the office of current NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who has held this post since 2014, which can be considered to be the end of a certain era.
- Stoltenberg's very likely successor is the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who has the support of the 4 leading States of the Alliance, i.e. the USA, Britain, Germany and France.
- Despite any flaws, Rutte seems to be the perfect candidate for the West to meet always fresh challenges.
- Nevertheless, the voices of politicians from Central and east Europe are increasingly heard, who believe that the time has come for them to take over the North Atlantic Alliance, due to the fact that in the face of the constant danger from Russia they realize them best.
- The West, however, fears representatives from the east flank, due to the fact that they think they are besides predatory in their approach to Russia, which could further deepen the European-Russian tensions, and so no 1 another than the 4th Dutchman as the leader of the Alliance should be expected.
The fundamental question is why the West fears the Secretary-General of NATO from the countries of Central and east Europe, not whether he is afraid of it, due to the fact that the fact of specified fear is undeniable. For this reason, he is so powerfully promoted to the highest position in the Alliance by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, and his triumph is almost certain, despite the fact that until late there have been 2 representatives of Central and east Europe: the Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas, who has already resigned from this competition, and the inactive fighting president of Romania Klaus Iohannis.
The End of an Age
On 1 October 2024, the word of office of current NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who has held this highest position for 10 years, is coming to an end due to the fact that he was first appointed on 28 March 2014[1], which is little than a period after the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation. Stoltenberg was not already in easy times at the time, but in his opinion, based on statements from 2015, there was no real threat to the North Atlantic Alliance states. He said: “I believe we do not see a direct threat to any NATO country from the east. Our goal is to proceed working with Russia... It serves NATO and serves Russia”[2]. There is no point in accounting him for these words now from today's perspective, due to the fact that it's simply misleading presentationism, which brings nothing fresh to the discussion. However, the situation did not improve at all each year, culminating in Russia's full-scale aggression to Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Stoltenberg's word of office was extended 4 times: in 2017[3], 2019[4], 2022[5] and 2023. The decision on the last extension was taken at the NATO summit in Vilnius on 4 July last year[6]. All indications are that with the beginning of October, we will not witness the 5th extension.
Stoltenberg's departure from NATO's "chief" cannot be seen another than the end of an era, since 10 years of the regulation of 1 individual – let alone the individual who perfectly fulfilled his duties – marked by Russia's aggressive policy in the region has struck a mark that affects the perception of the future of the full alliance as well as the future secretary general. A fresh individual in this position will not have easy moments at work – Europe stands at the brink of a war with Russia, which is exacerbated by the deteriorating situation of Ukrainian troops on the front[7].
European politicians are increasingly talking about the dark anticipation of starting specified a conflict: French president Emmanuel Macron spoke straight about the anticipation of sending troops to Ukraine[8The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said: “I don’t want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept of the past”[9].
The deepening awareness that the war of Europe, or, more precisely, of the West, with Russia is not just an abstract vision, makes the fresh NATO leader required an appropriate approach and action. The adjective “adequate” here is crucial and decisive to think “old members”, i.e. those who were joined before 1999 and at the same time do not have an “eastern” pedigree due to the fact that the states on the western side of the erstwhile iron curtain perceive the danger coming from Russia in a different way than their “younger” partners in the Alliance. This situation not so much creates a difference in the perception of the Russian Federation as a threat, due to the fact that here is the consensus, but this difference concerns the issue of the strength of this danger.
Mark Rutte and support for “old”
For this reason, the countries that operate much longer within the Alliance accept Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as the successor of Stoltenberg. As early as February this year, he had 2/3 support among associate States[10], including the approval of the alleged NATO core, i.e. the United States, large Britain, France and Germany, which de facto He already prejudges his triumph in the race for the Alliance's highest position. The administration of Joe Bidan commented on Rutte as follows: “Prime Minister Rutte profoundly understands the importance of the alliance, is simply a natural leader and a krasomist, and his leadership would service the Alliance well at this critical moment”[11]. Moreover, the president himself powerfully supports Dutch candidacy as Secretary-General. According to Politico authors, Biden’s clear stand on Rutte’s side “will most likely convince more allies to accept Rutte’s nomination after months of conflict for this position between him and respective another European leaders”[12For example, the erstwhile British defence minister Ben Wallace, Latvian abroad Minister Krišjānis Kari
Reading Timo S. Koster's text[13], a erstwhile Dutch diplomat with an internship besides in NATO structures, for the Atlantic Council, could be given the impression that he had written a kind of laurels for Rutte, while besides pointing to possible arguments against his candidacy. Koster described Dutch as follows:
"Although it is not necessarily a visionary leader, it knows everyone, is seen on the planet phase as an experienced politician, capable of having pragmatic agreements and would be able to keep together an alliance of thirty-two nations of different priorities".
He so explicitly described it as a "front-runner". Thus, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands has been presented as an efficient politician, diplomat and negotiator, who can frequently save the situation or usage more narration or transmission in his words, saying at least on February 17, 2024 (as part of this year's Munich safety Conference), so that European defence leaders "stop moaning, grumbling and lamenting Trump", only focused on improving and expanding European military capacity and supporting Ukraine[14), which was in effect a consequence to Donald Trump's disturbing announcements about Putin's “encouraging” to attack the Alliance states that do not meet the request to transfer 2% of GDP to arms[15].
And it is this issue that Ruttem has been raised due to the fact that it may have an impact on his position. The mediocre performance of the Netherlands in gathering the work to transfer 2% of GDP to defence from NATO associate States was a fact with which it was not easy to discuss, according to the data collected, according to which the Netherlands did not exceed the required threshold erstwhile in the period 2014-2020, reaching 1.7% of GDP in 2023[16]. The only advantage of this situation is that the Netherlands has successively tried to increase its spending since 2014, and the main driver of this operation was the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022. The mediocre results of the Netherlands were raised by any American legislators. For example, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan firmly stated that Rutte should “be disqualified”[17]. However, the Dutch announcements and forecasts point out that from 2024 the Netherlands will comply with this condition: 2.15% of GDP is to be transferred to defence for the current year, and the trend is to stay in line with Natovian standards[18].
Koster's second argument against Rutte is his origin, which sounds alternatively curiosistic, but the issue is that he would already be the 4th Dutch secretary-general of NATO. And to tell you the truth, there's nothing incorrect with that. The issue here is that Rutte would be another Western European who would lead the Alliance, in a simpler way. This "criminal" was mainly from candidates from Central and east Europe who, in the face of a direct threat from Russia, want to draw attention to the fact that NATO is not just the US and Western European countries. To this end, they are increasingly speaking on the issue of "equal treatment" in the Natovian forum, and this equality would concern not only geography but besides gender[19].
The “new” predators from the East
In December 2023 Robert Pszczel of the Kazimierz Pulaski Foundation committed the text[20In which he gave 5 arguments why it was time for a NATO leader from Central and east Europe. Namely, he stated that, firstly, "this is simply a question of global integrity and justice", secondly, "this would solve the painful problem of underrepresentation", thirdly, "Central and east European countries deserve peculiar attention due to the fact that they sometimes hold commendable loyalty to the organization", fourthly, "many politicians ... from the EWW countries have repeatedly demonstrated that they are right", and fifthly, "this is simply a good sign that any possible candidates from the EW region have courageously made their public interest in this work". In a akin speech she spoke in February this year in her article for Carnegie Europe Judy Dempsey, an Irish writer and researcher. She besides made a reasonably unequal fight for the rights of the mediate East Europeans to her NATO “chief”, writing that the past of the east flank states "contrasts sharply with the past of Western Europeans. Thanks to the fact that they were occupied, that their sovereignty was suppressed, and their past was subjected to russian narrative, they instinctively realize why NATO must proceed to adapt in the post-cold war era"[citation needed]21].
The words both Bee and Dempsey are very accurate and crucial due to the fact that they outline a problem to which tolerance begins to end more quickly. This was peculiarly evident erstwhile Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas sent her interest in becoming General Secretary of the Alliance last November[22]. On 12 March, Romania’s president Klaus Iohannis officially joined the competition[23He became the only competitor for Rutte for the moment, as Kallas decided to resign and yet support Dutchman[24].
In addition, the mediate East Europeans have more experience and a different view of Russia-related issues, especially the Baltic States, erstwhile an integral part of the erstwhile russian Union. It must besides be remembered that another countries specified as Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic – mostly the countries that are part of the east bloc in the past – besides see Russia – any more, any little – as an existential threat and a rival, as their own past shaped them so. This is why it is usually hard for the mediate East Europeans to see Russia as a partner, as was the case any time ago by the countries behind Oder. In doing so, however, the relentless mistrust or hostility, especially of the Baltics, caused an impression of exaggeration and over-interpretation among Western countries. As it turned out, in 2022, Stuart Lau wrote a text entitled “We told you so!” How the West didn’t list to the countries that know Russia best”, or “ “We told you! “How the West did not perceive to the countries that know Russia best” in which it explained how the West ignored the threat identified by the Central east NATO States by the Russian Federation[25].
And despite the fact that east Europe has a much deeper knowing of Russia and its motives, the West is afraid of entrusting the general secretary of NATO to individual in the region. Why? due to the fact that their inherent aversion to the Russian Federation may close possible paths to agreements or agreements.
This is not about the West wanting to deal with Russia, but about the fact that there is besides much emotional charge on the east flank in relation to the Kremlin and to any degree the Western partners are afraid that the predatory approach, specified as Kaji Kallas, was said to be "eating Russians for breakfast"[26), which could have undesirable consequences and only deepen tensions on the Europa-Russia line.
This is the main fear of the West against the Natov leader from Central and east Europe. Simplifyingly, it is besides possible to attach to it the president of Romania, who may be as predatory as Kallas is not, but besides has a Middle-Eastern pedigree through which he is shoved into 1 drawer. Aside from this argument, Frans Timmermans, a erstwhile associate of the European Commission, said that “he is simply a very interesting individual who leads Estonia in an inspiring way. But he is besides Prime Minister of the country bordering Russia"[27To any degree this proximity disqualifies it. Following this lead, it equally excludes Iohannis, whose country is besides close to the Russian Federation. And going even further – all the countries from the east flank...
Apparently not yet.
The triumph of Mark Rutte, despite the presence of Klaus Iohannis as a second option and the deficiency of support from Hungary[28It is almost certain and doubtful that something could turn the scales of triumph to the July summit in Washington. The Western fear of individual from Central and east Europe in the highest position in the Alliance will not let the president of Romania or anyone else in the region to win. Although everything indicated that this was the best time to give a fresh opportunity, it turns out that it is not the time that the Natish East has yet to wait. But you could say it's not lost. Central-Eastern politicians should strive to improve their situation by narrating properly, which, however, will be heavy dependent on the situation in Ukraine. They should besides apply for a position of lower rank but inactive important, specified as the Deputy Secretary General of NATO, who has been a Romanian politician Mircea Geoană since 2019[29]. Another example may be the current Czech president Petr Pavel, who was head of the NATO Military Committee from 2015 to 2018.[30] – it is worth adding that he was the first head of this Alliance body to come from the erstwhile east bloc.
The upcoming word of office of NATO's fresh secretary-general will not only be hard due to the tension of the global atmosphere, but will besides be a circumstantial indicator of whether Western leaders will be able to find themselves in the prevailing reality. If not, then the time will come for members of the Alliance from east Europe, which should yet end the division into “old” and “new”.
[1] Appointment of Secretary General design, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 28.03.2014, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natal/news_1083990.htm [accessed 14.04.2024].
[2] Russia not an immediate 3 to NATO states, Stoltenberg says, Reuters, 4.06.2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0OK0OH/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[3] R. Emmott, NATO Chief Stoltenberg wins extended word to summertime 2020, Reuters, 12.12.2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-stoltenberg-idUSKBN1E62EV/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[4] D. M. Herszenhorn, NATO allies utmost Stoltenberg’s word as secretary-general, ‘Politico’, 28.03.2019, https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-allies-extend-stoltenbergs-term-as-secretary-general/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[5] D. M. Herszenhorn, NATO Chief Stoltenberg is staying for 1 more year, “Politico”, 24.03.2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-chief-stoltenberg-stay-one-year/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[6] North Atlantic Council extensions mandate of the NATO Secretary General, North Atlantic Council, 4.07.2023, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_216761.htm [accessed 14.04.2024].
[7] I. Khurshudyan, With no way out of a sleeping war, Zelensky’s options look bad or bage, “The Washington Post”, 6.44.2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/06/ukraine-war-zelensky-options/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[8] S. Corbet, Putting Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not ‘ruled out’ in the future, French leader says, Associated Press News, 27.02.2024, https://apnews.com/article/paris-conference-support-Ukraine-zelenskyy-c458a1df3f9a7626128cdeb84050469 [accessed 14.04.2024].
[9] C. Chiappa, War Looms for Europe, warns Poland’s Donald Tusk, “Politico”, 29.03.2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-prime-minister-donald-tusk-warns-europe-pre-war-era/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[10] S. Lau, Mark Rutte in pole position to be next NATO boss, “Politico”, 21.02.2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/mark-rutte-pole-position-next-nato-boss/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[11] A. Gray, W. James, Dutch p.m. Rutte in strong position to lead NATO with US, UK, French and German backing, Reuters, 22.02.2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/uk-backs-dutch-pm-rutte-become-next-nato-chief-2024-02-22 [accessed 14.04.2024].
[12] A. Ward, P. McLeary, S. Lau, Biden paves way for Mark Rutte to lead NATO — and face Putin, 21.02.2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/21/biden-backs-dutch-pm-mark-rutte-for-top-nato-job-00142554 [accessed 14.04.2024].
[13] T. S. Koster, What kind of leader is required for the future of the NATO Alliance?, Atlantic Council, 7.03.2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-kind-of-leader-is-required-for-the-future-of-the-nato-alliance/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[14] A. Brzozowski, Let’s head our own defense, not who sits in the White House, Dutch p.m. Rutte tells Europe, Euractiv, 18.02.2024, https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/interview/lets-mind-our-own-defence-not-who-sits-in-the-white-house-dutch-pm-rutte-tells-europe/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[15] E. Helmore, Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack Nato allies who pay besides little, “The Guardian”, 11.02.2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/11/donald-trump-says-he-would-encourtage-russia-to-attack-nato-country-who-dont-pay-bills [accessed 14.04.2024].
[16] Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2023), North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 7.07.2023, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2023/7/pdf/230707-def-exp-2023-en.pdf [accessed 14.04.2024].
[17] S. Lau, J. Gould, A. Ward, NATO front-runner Mark Rutte faces flank over low Dutch defence spending, “Politico”, 22.11.2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-mark-rutte-low-dutch-defense-spending/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[18] Netherlands pushing billions into NATO defence spending standard, Ukraine support, “NL Times”, 12.04.2024, https://nltimes.nl/2024/04/12/netherlands-pushing-billions-nato-defense-spending-standard-ukraine-support [accessed 14.04.2024].
[19] S. Lau, B. Moens, In race for top EU, NATO jobs, east Europe ask: ‘Are we equals or not?’“Politico”, https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-eastern-european-union-rutte-secretary-general-commission-russia-Ukraine-war-defense/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[20] R. Bees, The Search For NATO’s fresh Secretary General – Time For A Candidate From Central east Europe?, Kazimierz Pulaski Foundation, 13.12.2023, https://pulaski.pl/the-search-for-natos-new-secretary-general-time-for-a-candidate-from-central-eastern-europe/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[21] J. Dempsey, NATO’s fresh Boss Should Come From the east Flank, Carnegie Europe, 22.02.2024, https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/91730 [accessed 14.04.2024].
[22] E. Bazail-Eimil, Estonian p.m. Kaja Kallas open to being next NATO chief, “Politico”, 14.11.2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/14/estonian-pm-kaja-kallas-open-nato-chief-00127094 [accessed 14.04.2024].
[23] S. McGrath, A. Alexandru, Romania’s president announces his bid to become the NATO military alliance’s next leader, Associated Press News, 12.03.2024, https://apnews.com/article/nato-romania-president-secretary-general-5df8307092d57ac988d440360fb68d9f [accessed 14.04.2024].
[24] The president Estonia’s Kaja Kallas backs Mark Rutte for NATO top job“Politico”, 2.04.2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-prime-minister-kaja-kallas-backs-mark-rutte-nato-top-job/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[25] S. Lau, ‘We told you so!’ How the West didn’t list to the countries that know Russia best, “Politico”, 9.03.2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/western-europe-listen-to-the-baltic-country-that-know-russia-best-Ukraine-poland/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[26] C. Chiappa, Kaja Kallas: I don’t eat Russians for breakfast ... alternatively muesli, yogurt and blueberrys, “Politico”, 5.03.2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-kaja-kallas-i-dont-eat-russians-for-breakfast-rather-muesli-yogurt-blueberries/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[27] Estse Prime Minister Kaja Kallas concurrent voor Mark Rutte bij opvolging NAVO-topman Stoltenberg, WNL.tv, 15.11.2023, https://wnl.tv/2023/11/15/estse-premier-kaja-kallas-concurrent-voor-mark-rutte-bij-opvolging-navo-topman-stoltenberg/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[28] Hungry cannot support Mark Rutte for NATO Chief, Minister Says, Reuters, 5.03.2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-cannot-support-mark-rutte-nato-chief-minister-says-2024-03-05/ [accessed 14.04.2024].
[29] NATO Secretary General appoints Mircea Geoana as next Department Secretary General, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 17.07.2019, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_167938.htm [accessed 14.04.2024].
[30] General Petr Pavel ends his tenure as president of the NATO Military Committee, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 29.06.2018, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_156414.htm?selectedLocale=en [accessed 14.04.2024].
Photo: Canva
