Russia “a threat to France and Europe”
Many Western capitals inform of the anticipation of a war in Europe by the end of this decade. French president Emmanuel Macron gave a speech on Wednesday 5 March on television, in which he spoke about the geopolitical situation, from the US stopping military assistance to Ukraine to the European summit on the defence of the continent.
"In this situation, who can believe that Russia present will halt in Ukraine? Russia has become a threat to France and Europe," said Macron. Prior to the speech of the French President, respective European states issued both authoritative and unofficial warnings: after the war in Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin may have plans against the West.
A confidential German military note, revealed by the "Bild" paper and transmitted by "Les Echos", provides for a Russian offensive on the east front of NATO, with the possible of planet War III, possible in the summertime of 2025.
"The direct armed conflict with NATO has become an option for Russia"
Several intelligence services confirm the explanation of a possible Moscow attack on Western countries. According to a February 2024 study by the Estonian peculiar Services, "The Kremlin is likely to anticipate a NATO conflict in the next decade". Bruno Kahl, head of German intelligence, stated in October that "direct armed conflict with NATO has become an option for Russia".
Mid-February The Danish intelligence service besides talked about a possible “large-scale war” led by Vladimir Putin's troops by 2030: "Russia will most likely be more inclined to usage military force in a regional war against 1 or more European NATO associate States if it sees NATO as weak militarily or politically divided," stated the report, which was cited by ‘L’Express’ in mid-February.
Russia has utilized the fresh moves of U.S. president Donald Trump to strengthen concerns among European leaders about large-scale conflict. They came after Moscow approved the draft budget for the period 2025-2027 in November, which foresees a 30-percent increase in military spending. Defence spending can scope 13.5 trillion rubles (about 140 billion EUR, or 584 billion PLN) by 2025, which represents over 6 percent of the country's GDP.
BRITTA PEDERSEN / PAPBruno Kahl, president of the national Intelligence Service, Berlin, Germany, 19 July 2024.
Potential targets of Moscow
Aurelien Duchene, author of the book “Russia Putin v. West”, explains that the expansionist goal of the Kremlin leader is the thought of “Russian Miru” or “Russian world”. This concept is aimed at territories with Russian-speaking minorities specified as Estonia, Transnistria and Georgia.
Seventeen years ago, Russia took action in this direction, attacking Georgia to occupy the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In addition, she was accused of interfering in the October 2024 parliamentary elections there. Simultaneously in the separatist Transnistrian region, Moscow uses gas supplyto control this territory.
Estonia, with a crucial Russian minority, fears that it could become the mark of Moscow. Together with its neighbours, the country has developed a plan to build respective twelve bunkers along the border with Russia. Norway, Sweden and Finland They besides feel threatened.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said in Januarythat “Sweden is not at war, but is not at peace.” Finland, which has a 1300-km border with Russia, announced that the NATO base would be created 200 km from Russia.
On the list Romania and Poland
In Romania, Russia was accused of interfering with the presidential election on 24 November 2024. According to France Info's analysis, this country is among the targets of Vladimir Putin after the end of the war in Ukraine.
Sowietologist Jean Radwanij, author of the book "Russie, un vertige de poissance", told La Croix that the Russians are more “attached to Ukraine than to Moldova or Romania”.
Due to concerns about possible Russian aggression Polandannounced plans to invest EUR 155 billion (597 billion) in defence this year. Aurelien Duchene warned that Russia could attack the sloping pass to separate the Baltic countries. “There is more and more talk about this node, with a script in which the Russians could attack this area to isolate us from the Baltic countries,” Duchene said.
While Russia has not yet moved to a fresh conflict, European states stay cautious. “The thought of a “Russian world” will last Vladimir Putin,” concluded Duchene, stressing that Russia’s imperial dream will not vanish until it loses in Ukraine.
