Different prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China

Washington: Success and hard Position

U.S. president Donald Trump announced on the fact Social platform that the agreement with China is "ready" and is only waiting for the final acceptance of the leaders.

“OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH president XI AND ME.

FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY essential uncommon EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL supply TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINES STUDENTS utilizing OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (Whoch HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!).’

In his distinctive style, he stressed that China had agreed to the immediate supply of uncommon minerals and magnets, key to the American advanced technology and defence industry. In return, the U.S. is meant to keep the ability to survey Chinese students at American universities – as Trump described as “always affirmative for me”.

Washington maintains advanced tariffs on Chinese goods – a full of up to 55%, justifying this, among others, China's alleged commitment to the fentanyl crisis in the US and "unfair commercial practices". Trump called the relation with Beijing "EXCELLENT", which suggests that he considers the fresh agreement a crucial victory.

Beijing: Caution and diplomatic understatements

The Chinese statement, published by Xinhua, sounds much more restrained. Deputy Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang spoke of "professional, factual and honest talks", stressing only that both sides agreed on "framework for the implementation of consensus" previously achieved in Geneva. There were no circumstantial numbers of duties or details on the supply of uncommon earth metals.

Experts, like Bert Hofman of the National University of Singapore, point to this discrepancy: while Trump announces circumstantial findings, Beijing avoids precise declarations, treating the agreement as a phase in the negotiation process. Chinese representatives were besides clearly annoyed by conflicting signals from Washington – for example, threats to visa restrictions for students, despite erstwhile promises of cooperation.

Deeper ground: a strategy game about uncommon earth metals

For the U.S., dependence on Chinese supplies of uncommon metals is simply a "critical point of sensitivity," notes Lizzi Lee of the Asia Society Policy Institute. For China, control of this sector is simply a powerful political lever. The differences in the explanation of "tempo" resumptions of supplies show how fragile trust and channels of communication between powers are.

While Trump presents the agreement as the success of his tough policy, Beijing sees them alternatively as a temporary ceasefire in a trade war that could erupt again – especially if Washington reunite a conciliation speech with restrictions (e.g. towards students). As Wu Xinbo of Fudan University concluded, “politicians like Marco Rubio may effort to smuggle their own anti-Chinese agenda.”

Conclusions: 2 narratives, 1 uncertain future

American narration: "We won, China stepped down".
Chinese narrative: "Dialogue continues, but trust takes time".
One thing is certain – the economical war is not over, and uncommon minerals will stay a weapon in this game.

Leszek B. Glass

Email: [email protected]

© www.chiny24.com