When in December 2024, after thirteen years of civilian war in Syria, the rebels overthrown the pro-Russian government of president Bashar al-Assad, it seemed that the country would fall out of orbit long after the Kremlin's influence. However, not even a year passed, and the fresh Syrian president Ahmad asz-Shara arrived in Moscow, where he met Vladimir Putin. Whether through these talks the Kremlin achieves its goals, this visit clearly shows that the rivalry of the West and Russia for a protectorate over Syria – or an alliance with it – was not yet settled.
Ahmad asz-Shara – the boy of a exile from Golan Hill, who settled in Syria – made an awesome career in 20 years. In 2003, he left for Iraq as a 20-year-old, where he enlisted in Al-Qaeda. He rapidly followed the hierarchy: in 2011, he took command of Mosul activities, and a year later he returned to Syria with the task of forming a subsidiary of a parent organization in that country. In 2016, his group gained independence, and in 2017 entered into an alliance with respective others and formed the Hajat Tahrir Ash-Sham coalition (HTS), which became 1 of the largest factions fighting in the Syrian civilian War. At the head of HTS fighters, Asz-Shara led a fast offensive against government forces at the turn of November and December last year, and in little than 2 weeks he crashed them completely at the inactivity or helplessness of the Russian troops stationed in the country. president Asad fled to Moscow, where he remains until today, and Ahmad asz-Shara took over.
For a year, he became known as a leader not only ruthless but besides pragmatic. It does not let individual animosities to stand in the way of achieving political goals. Shortly after taking power with a grin on his lips, he shook hands with Western leaders who had just called him a terrorist and offered millions of prizes for his head, specified as president Emmanuel Macron or Donald Trump.
Similarly, he had no opposition to gathering president Putin, even though for almost a decade Russian forces, including the notorious Wagner Group, helped keep president Asad in power and fought the rebels with peculiar brutality. erstwhile the 2 leaders met in Moscow on 15 October, Asz-Shara spoke about the request to "redefinition" of common relations, and the president of Russia repeated and talked about "special ties" between the 2 countries. Apart from these diplomatic formulas, there were besides specifics: the fresh ruler of Syria assured that he would honour all the arrangements and agreements concluded with Russia.
What are the deals? Mainly for approval to lease by Russia 2 bases – sea in Tartus and air in Hmejmi. Both are highly crucial in Kremlin's abroad policy. The first, which had already functioned during russian times, allows the Russian fleet to operate in the Mediterranean Sea, the second, which Russia received without a time limit from the Assad government in 2015 in exchange for intervention, not only allows for the projection of forces into the mediate East area, but above all it is logistical a base for the operation of Russian quotas in Africa. Following last year's change of power in Syria, both bases stopped operations and any equipment was evacuated to Libya. But now, according to the Syrian President, there is an option on the negotiating table to resume their operation.
Does this mean that Syria under fresh regulation is returning to the Kremlin's wing? most likely not, and surely not in the way the erstwhile government operated, which is only thanks to Russian support. president Asz-Shara cannot number on Moscow, who is active in Ukraine, to support him with crucial arms supplies, although representatives of the defence ministries of both states are having discussions on this issue. It is besides improbable that the Kremlin will release Assad to the fresh Syrian authorities as they seek.
Ash-Sarah understands that his regulation cannot be based solely on good relations with the West. Syria, despite a change of power, is inactive torn apart by civilian war, and the Ash-Shar forces are far from controlling the full territory. In the country there are various armed factions, from Kurdish to loyalists Assad, to cells of the muslim State. The fresh president, taught by his predecessor's fate, tries to diversify alliances and not close any doors. He understands well that Western leaders, as rapidly as they received him into the salons, can get him – as shortly as his leg slips – to send him back from these salons back to the mountains of northern Syria and list wanted terrorists. Just as Putin abandoned Assad as shortly as it became clear that he would not be able to stay in power. He only offered him shelter and political retirement in Moscow.
Therefore, Ash-Shara leads a diplomatic game on many fronts, not closing any doors to himself and staking out both Russia and the West as a threat of closer relations with each side's rival. The words of the Syrian abroad Minister, who, 3 days after the gathering in Moscow, stated that no arrangements were made to unlock the activities of Russian bases in Syria, but the signing of specified agreements is not excluded, either, are part of the game. Syria is not part of any camp or alliance, emphasized the minister, and its global policy is balanced. In another words, we'll see what each side has to offer. The rivalry of the West and Russia for a protectorate over Syria – or an alliance with it – is not yet yet settled.
