Parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic, scheduled for 3–4 October 2025, will be held in an atmosphere of expanding economical pressure, geopolitical tensions and deep political polarisation. The main political parties compete for power in conditions of social discontent due to advanced inflation, life costs, controversy around Green Deal and differences in approach to the war in Ukraine. Although the polls point to the clear conduct of the opposition ANO movement under the leadership of erstwhile Prime Minister Andrei Babiš, the political scene remains fragmented and a large part of the electorate declares openness to fresh groups.
The Czech political strategy is based on proportional electoral ordination to the 200-member Chamber of Members, at the 5% threshold for the organization and 8-11% for the coalition. The 2021 improvement improved the proportionality of the allocation of mandates but did not remove structural risks for smaller groups. On the eve of the electoral run marked crucial shifts in organization dynamics: the exit of the Pirate organization from the government, the successes of fresh protest formations (Stačilo!, Motoristé sobě), and the consolidation of the extremist right around the SPD.
Among the main political forces:
- ANO 2011 runs an economical and national transfer campaign, with a distance from the current EU course, but remaining below the threshold of radicalism of the SPD.
- SPOLU coalition (ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP 09) emphasizes responsibility, government experience and pro-European identity, but faces communication difficulties and subsequent scandals.
- Stan and the Pirates are characterized by the search for a fresh identity after the dissolution of the Pirstan coalition and mediocre results in 2024.
- SPD and Stačilo! effort to manage the protest electorate on both sides of the ideological spectrum, with a strong presence of sovereign, anti-immigrant and pro-Russian themes.
- Přísah and Motoristé satě test the possible of single-dimensional narratives (anti-corruption and anti-climate).
The elections in 2025 will de facto be a referendum on the balance of the centre-right rule, but besides a test of the resilience of Czech democracy to populism, misinformation and external pressure. possible government configurations include both ANO's return to power with SPD tolerance and cooperation with SOCD, as well as little likely extension of SPOLU-STAN governments with support from the Pirates and Greens. The final consequence will depend on the mobilisation of the fluctuating electorate, the effectiveness of run strategies and the party's ability to make coherent and unchangeable coalitions.
In a broader sense, elections in the Czech Republic can have an impact on the agreement of forces in Central Europe, relations within the Visegrad Group and the Czech Republic's position on key challenges for the European Union, including the energy transition, regional safety and the future of political integration.
