This state of affairs has not changed since the beginning of this run and It is highly likely that this run will end this way. But just due to the fact that it's possible doesn't mean it'll happen..
Is it going to happen again in 2015?
President Bronisław Komorowski found this painfully in 2015, who conducted rather clearly in the polls throughout the campaign. At that time no survey in fresh days before the first circular caught the trend favorable to Andrzej Duda. No poll showed that Duda would be the first before Komorowski in the first round. And that's what happened.
Duda beat the President-in-Office by 2 percent points. This created a full fresh dynamic and yet Andrzej Duda won with Bronisław Komorowski in the second circular by respective 100 1000 votes. Can this happen now? Of course he can. Everything depends on the mobilisation of Nawrocki and Trzaskowski electorates.
Moreover, most Trzaskowski polls keep a lower advantage over Nawrock than Komorowski maintained over Duda in 2015. This advantage was 7-8 percent points, and it ended that Duda had already overtaken Komorowski in the first round.
Turnout will besides be important. To date, analysts have argued that attendance in the first circular will be lower than 5 years ago.
But we have the first signal that might indicate that it doesn't gotta be. About half a million people registered to vote abroad. And what about Studies by Michał Rogalski for Onetu, the number of those who registered to vote abroad has always been powerfully correlated with later overall attendance. So we might have a surprise here. In fresh elections it was that abroad voters alternatively supported candidates of the current power camp. We'll see what happens this year.
Important 4th place
In my opinion, the most interesting thing is what will happen in this further part of the stake. I mean, but for the first two, due to the fact that I don't think there's any uncertainty that it's Trzaskowski and Nawrocki in the second round.
First of all, what will be the consequence of Sławomir Mentzen, who, if given the polling average, has been down in fresh days and weeks. present his score is approaching 10% alternatively than 17, 18, sometimes 20, as it has been in various polls in fresh months.
Even more interesting is who will be the fourth. Simon Holovnia will fight for 4th place, but he has grown powerful competitors.
After all, there is simply a candidate from the Left Magdalena Biejat, who made a good run and seems to be free from the 2% syndrome, which has been getting candidates from the left over the last 10 years (i.e. Magdalena Ogórek and Robert Biedroń achieved about 2% of the support in the First circular in 2015 and 2020 and were completely uncounted in the final game).
But there is besides another left-wing candidate, Adrian Zandberg, who in any polls precedes Magdalena Biejat and gains 6% support, sometimes 7%. In fresh days, there has been a wave of benefit for Zandberg, and at rallies in large cities it has indeed been gathering crowds.
This will substance due to the fact that before the second circular Magdalena Biejat will most likely support Rafał Trzaskowski. It is said that the president of Warsaw is already on an appointment with Vladimir Czarzalist on Monday to discuss what will happen before the 2nd round..
In this context, who will be the 4th will be of large importance. If Holownia has a weak result, the question is whether he will openly support Rafał Trzaskowski. We know he declared 5 years ago that he would vote for him, but he didn't call his constituents.
Also Among left-wing politicians there is simply a belief that Adrian Zandberg will not officially support Rafał Trzaskowski. Besides, Zandberg late almost explicitly said that voters are not a sack of potatoes.
In the second round, it will besides substance what groups that voted in the first circular will not go to elections, and what groups will choose to vote in the second round. It is always the case that any do not want to vote in the second round, but a fresh group goes to the polls. The question is who will manage it, how many in this group will be undecided and who will yet convince them to vote for a peculiar candidate.
