Following discussions with 16,000 people in 12 European countries, our organisation, the European Council for abroad Relations (ECFR), concluded that Trump's triumph changed the nature of Europe's interior policy, as well as its geopolitical position.
Almost overnight far right in the EU passed from a fierce defence of national sovereignty against a federalist threat to avant-garde transnational movement that advocates a certain kind of civilizational nationalism. Conversely, many mainstream parties — or alternatively the erstwhile globalists — have evolved into fresh sovereigns defending national dignity from what they see as the ideological interference of Washington.
The European political scene is changing influenced by Trump
Supporters of European populist parties are no longer protest voters either. According to our data, most of the people who support each of the 10 far-right parties we have surveyed believe Trump's reelection will be good for the US and sees his actions with sympathy and excitement. Like far right EU leaders who copy its policies in everything, from immigration to blowing up national bureaucracy.
The consequence of all this seems to be the existence of an ideological transatlantic relation that It no longer divides the continent into pro- and anti-American countries, but alternatively into pro- and anti-trumpian political parties. Unlike the 2003 Iraq war split, east Europe is no more US friendly than Western Europe due to a strong pro-American social consensus, but due to the fact that its far-right parties are stronger.
However, it is unclear whether the European utmost right will be the main beneficiary or the victim of the Trump Revolution. On the 1 hand — as was the case with brexit — his re-election shows that they are inactive possible to gain power. However, if people turn against Trump and his politics, these parties will be the biggest losers. Their support depends on the American leader in the same way that the support for Western European Communist parties depended on how people perceived the russian Union and its policies during the Cold War.
At the another end of the spectrum we now see any of the most traditionally Atlantic parties in Europe, specified as German Christian-Democratic Union (CDU)which They become defending national sovereignty against Trump America again. This is simply a change that coincides with the results of our polls, which clearly show that the countries that seem the most skeptical to America present seemed the most Atlantic yesterday, specified as the United Kingdom, Germany and Denmark.
In particular, Denmark — where 86% of respondents believe that the US political strategy is broken — best illustrates that people radically turn against the United States Not erstwhile Trump attacks Europe, but erstwhile threatens the sovereignty of their country.
The naive or the realistic?
The ongoing transformation of Europe's geopolitical identity is equally dramatic. Trump's reelection forces Europe to a serious approach to your own safety. More specifically, while the fear of Russian aggression remains mainly limited to countries straight bordering it, according to our polls, presently exists a clear pan-European fear of atomic conflict and a fresh planet war.
Alex Wroblewski / AFPMake Europe large Again T-shirt. Illustration image
Looking at the results, we see that the majority are now in favour of expanding defence spending, further support for Ukraine in the event of the withdrawal of US support, and even in many countries for the introduction of mandatory military service. In many countries, but Italy and Hungary, the majority in excess of 60% even advocates development of European atomic deterrenceWhile any besides request national atomic deterrence.
As the EU changes, Europeans inactive have doubts whether they can arm themselves fast adequate to defend yourself In Washington's absence — especially in the short term.
The main paradox that comes from our investigation is that, although Europeans are aware of the risks posed by the fresh US administration policy, they proceed to express their conviction that Trump will not retreat American troops from Europe and that transatlantic relations can be easy repaired after his departure from office. The question is, are they naive about the nature of Trump's revolution, or are they simply realistic about what the EU can accomplish in the short term?
While European NATO leaders gather in the Hagueto agree on the historical mark of 5% defence expenditure, The answer to this question may be surprising. French revolutionary Louis Antoine de Saint-Just was going to say that “the present order is the disorder of the future”. present the essence of this maxim fits Europe as well.
