Strategic investment in infrastructure and natural materials
Chinese investment in the railway line connecting Kunming, the capital of Junnan Province, to Wientian, the capital of Laos, has become a key component of food safety strategy. According to a survey published on October 10, 2025 by the Chinese Geological Service, a 1,000-kilometre-long railway line allowed China direct access to the vast potassium resources in Laos, the natural material essential for the production of fertilizers.
Laos, despite being 1 of the poorest countries in the world, has 21% of the world's documented potassium resources – almost as much as Canada (23%). However, so far, the deficiency of infrastructure has prevented the usage of these resources. The Kunming–Vientian railway line, launched 4 years ago, changed the situation, allowing massive exports of potassium to China.
Change in potassium supply structure
In the past, China has been mostly dependent on imports of potassium from North America, especially from Canada. However, in 2024 the situation changed dramatically: Russia became China's largest supplier of potassium, delivering 4.24 million tonnes – 41% more than a year ago. This increase was partially the consequence of the war in Ukraine, which limited Russian potassium exports to Europe.
In parallel, Laos rapidly enters the Chinese import market: in 2023 potassium exports from this country to China amounted to 1.71 million tonnes, and in 2024 increased to 2.07 million tonnes. According to forecasts, this figure will proceed to increase with the launch of fresh mines financed by Chinese companies.
As a result, China importantly reduced dependence on western suppliers. According to USGS data, China has only 3.8% of planet potassium resources, while the United States – 4.6%. Meanwhile, 78.5% of the world's reserves are concentrated in Canada, Russia, Belarus and Laos – 3 of which keep close relations with China.
Increasing request for potassium in China
Earlier forecasts predicted China's request for potassium would highest in 2025 to then decline. fresh investigation will refute this thesis. The squad under Liu Jiufen of the Chinese Geological Service forecasts that potassium consumption in China will increase from the current 16 million tonnes per year to 19–22 million tonnes in 2030.
This increase is not only due to agriculture – especially crops for the mediocre in potassium soils of confederate China – but besides to the increasing request for specialized fertilisers specified as potassium nitrate or magnesium potassium sulphate, utilized in fruit, vegetables or tobacco crops.
In addition, potassium is utilized outside agriculture – including food processing, pharmaceutical manufacture and renewable energy technologies, including solar retention systems based on molten salts.
Geopolitical and commercial implications
Reducing dependence on US and Canadian potassium supplies gives China greater freedom in trade negotiations. In fresh months China has completely stopped importing soya from the US while maintaining unchangeable prices and food supply in the interior market.
According to researchers, safety of potassium supply has become 1 of the pillars of a wider resilience strategy for food supply chains. another activities include expanding cereal reserves, diversifying import sources and developing agricultural technologies.
In a study entitled Research on the situation of request and supply and the degree of safety of potassium resources in China The authors urge further action: to accelerate technological innovation in the extraction of potassium from hard brine deposits (e.g. in the Qaidam Basin, where potassium occurs together with lithium and borem), as well as to grow abroad investment – especially in Central Asia, Africa and Southeast Asia.
Source:
- South China Morning Post – The ‘potassium railway’: how North America lost a Trump card in trade war with China, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3329355/potassium-railway-how-north-america-lost-trump-card-trade-war-china
- U.S. Geological survey – Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025: Potash, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-potash.pdf
- China Geology (China Geological Survey) – investigation on the Supply and request Situation and safety warrant Degree of Potash Resources in China, October 10, 2025
- International Fertilizer Association – Global Potash marketplace Outlook 2025, https://www.fertilizers.org/ifa/publications/global-potash-market-outlook-2025
Leszek B. Glass
Email: [email protected]
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