— I think there will be many, many casualties on our side," says erstwhile president of Panama Ernesto Perez Balladares in a conversation with POLITICO, commenting on a possible military confrontation with the United States. He added that specified a script would lead to "an global condemnation of the USA".
Panama against the wall
Marco Rubio's weekend visit to Panama is expected to supply answers to the burning question: whether the next 4 years of American politics will match imperial conquest or hard negotiations.
According to 1 of the participants in the discussion, president Donald Trump's future envoy to Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone, suggested to the Panamans that they begin their concessions by free passage through the canal of U.S. Navy ships and coastguards. POLITICO, who spoke about these negotiations, wanted to stay anonymous.
Prior to their visit, Rubio Politico journalists interviewed 10 present and erstwhile officials in Panama and Washington. These talks show that the U.S. Secretary of State's efforts are moving towards an agreement that confirms American dominance in the Panama Canal and will reduce China's presence there without questioning Panama's control of the channel.
However, POLITICO speakers point to the advanced hazard of misunderstandings and escalation, as Trump's aggression encounters the offended pride of the Panamanian elite.
Panama's erstwhile president Ernesto Perez Balladares, drinking frozen coffee, argued that the planet is becoming increasingly multipolar and Trump exaggerates.
Fresh after consulting the presidential palace with his current successor, Jose Raulem Mulino, Balladares said Panama's only concrete consequence to the U.S. activities they were talking about was an appeal to the United Nations, which had already been issued.
Balladares stated that Panama can take reprisal action, passing through their borders South American migrants heading north to the United States.
— 1 of the things we can do if the situation gets worse is simply to open borders," Balladares said.
“Do you think we care?”
Rubio's visit is to see if direct high-level diplomacy can halt a crisis that began with Trump's threats on social media at the end of last year. At the time, he complained about advanced fees for crossing the channel. He besides spoke of Chinese soldiers serving the channel.
The Panamans protested, raising the deficiency of actual basis for Trump's claims of Chinese military presence. They pointed out that transit charges were uniform and governed by the law and appealed to the authority of multilateral institutions.
The people who worked for Trump say the Mulino administration is taking Trump's militant attacks literally. In their opinion, however, the Panamanian elite should not forget that it was the United States that built and defend the channel, suggesting that this was the main message of Donald Trump's fresh administration.
The Panama-US interviewer said in a conversation with POLITICO that the first negotiations had not brought any solution.
MARTIN BERNETTI/AFP/East News / East NewsDemonstrators in Panama City protest before visiting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, holding a banner with the inscription: “Trump, the channel is ours”, 30 January 2025.
Conversations between president Donald Trump's future envoy to Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone and Panaman officials — including Cabinet Ministers and Ambassador to the United States Jose Healy — began in the last days of the Biden administration.
At the time, in December 2024, Panamanian officials were expected to quote Luis Almagro, Secretary-General of the Organization of American States (OPA), a UN-type body for the Western Hemisphere. Almagro wrote on platform X in December: “We anticipate the fullest and unlimited observance Agreements signed, approved and applicable between 2 countries‘.
— I don't care what the OPA secretary-general says, I don't care what any columnist says. Do you think we care? — he was going to say Claver-Carone in consequence according to 1 of the participants.
“It’s not about ruling another nations”
Panama embassy spokesperson in Washington, D.C., Siria Miranda, said she was incapable to confirm this relationship. The State Department press office has not responded to the request for comment.
However, Panama has already made 1 compromise. On the day of the inauguration of Trump, Panamanian government auditors arrived at 2 ports, located at both ends of the channel, operated by a subsidiary of the CK Hutchison Holdings conglomerate based in Hong Kong. However, sending auditors to analyse the compatibility of the company's activities with the concession agreements did not halt the crisis in relations with the US.
In his inaugural speech on the same day, Trump promised to “recover” the channel that The United States transferred Panama in 1999. Panamanian president Mulino responded with a complaint to the UN safety Council in which he referred to Panama's rights under global law. This week, president Panama reiterated his position that control of the channel is not negotiable.
Before Rubio arrived, however, there was a signal that the Trump administration was ready to soften its approach.
"I think it's clear that this is simply a substance of developing relationships," said the U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday January 28.
"It is not about managing another nations, but about explaining that partnership with the United States is something that they can trust, something that benefits, like any good relationship," she said.
