The Allianz investigation firm, owned by Allianz-Trade, a global leader in commercial transaction hazard insurance, presented the Allianz Trade Global survey 2024 Protectionism Mithridatism report. It contains the results of an opinion survey of over 3,000 companies from China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom and the USA on their global trade forecasts next year.
In last year's edition of the survey 70% of companies stated that they were expecting an increase in export turnover. This year 82% of respondents anticipate this increase next year. According to the vast majority of companies surveyed, the current year is expected to bring an end to the recession. But is it a belief based on an analysis of the data collected, or is it the hope of these companies that the close future will yet bring them the chance to catch a deeper breath?
As we deal with China mainly, we want to draw your attention to the results of investigation by Chinese companies. And like this:
- 81% of Chinese exporters listed the usage of AI solutions as having the top impact on their global improvement (approximately 60% in another countries);
- 45% of Chinese exporters anticipate a crucial increase in their turnover, with more than 1 in 10 expecting an increase of more than 10%. They seem convinced that the volume will compensate for the impact of deflation in China, where maker prices (PPI) in the first 4th of this year fell by 2.7% y/y and export prices by 6.3% y/y. At the same time, almost a 4th of Chinese exporters anticipate a deficiency of growth or a decrease in turnover this year;
- No signs of disconnection (decoubling) from China. More than 30% of abroad companies plan to increase their presence in China while only 11% plan to reduce this commitment;
- 39% of German and Spanish companies and 33% of French companies anticipate to increase their presence in China. Of the US companies, only 27% intend to engage more in the PRC;
- Whereas surveys show that diversification alternatively than decoupling is simply a more visible trend;
- around a 4th of German, French and American companies anticipate their suppliers and Chinese co-operators to have a lower share in their global supply chains in the future;
- 35% of German companies believe that they will double their deliveries from China, and the share of Chinese suppliers in their supply chains will besides double in relation to another markets. This mainly concerns the automotive, chemical, construction, metallurgical and textile sectors. German companies in sectors specified as electricity and retail are planning to increase their presence in another than Chinese markets;
- Chinese companies considering relocation or switching of suppliers mostly like to stay in the South East Asia region (37%). Europe is in the plans of 17% of companies;
The Allianz investigation survey shows that China remains the most crucial supplier in the world, from which full separation seems hard if not impossible. They frequently account for over 50% of imports of a given product, frequently the share of Chinese companies in the production of a given product exceeds 50% worldwide.
The degree of dependence of individual countries on Chinese imports varies widely. The United States is among the most addicts: China is simply a key origin of goods for about 45% of all goods imported by this country. For another countries, this situation is as follows:
- United Kingdom 29%,
- Spain 28%,
- France 27%,
- Germany 22%,
- Poland 13%,
- Italy 11%.
Analysts point out in the study that more than 72% of respondents stated that the risks associated with protectionist policies are their biggest concern. Among the top factors of uncertainty are the Russian-Ukrainian War, the Israeli-Palestinian War, the unpredictable form of China-US trade relations, China-EU and China-Russia.
Despite increasing geopolitical concerns and a large number of companies declaring their intention to decision from China, or to reduce their commitment to China, there are many indications that this phenomenon will actually have a marginal character.
Allianz investigation besides points out in its conclusions that the EU, like the United States, aims to reduce dependence on China. EU-China relations have a stalemate, due to the elections to the Europarliament, the hard economical and geopolitical situation of the mediate States and trade tensions. The scenery of planet trade is increasingly shaping political relations and it is already openly said that the planet is starting to decision towards protectionism. The simplification of dependence on China has a mainly political objective.
Source: https://www.allianz.com
Author: 梁安基 Andrzej Z. Liang, 上海 Shanghai, 中国 China
Email: [email protected]
Editorial: Leszek B.
Email: [email protected]
