A fresh chapter in Japan's politics: What direction will Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru take?

ine.org.pl 8 months ago

Zdjęcie: Chińska polityka energetyczna (65)

Analysis briefly:

On September 27, Japan held elections for the fresh leader of the ruling organization (the Liberal-Democratic Party) and thus the fresh Prime Minister of Japan. With 215 to 194 votes in II round, Ishiba Shigeru – an experienced politician with a passion for defence – won.
In an exposé held on 1 October, the fresh Prime Minister outlined directions in national and abroad politics. Among another things, we can anticipate global alliances to be strengthened, as well as greater military autonomy. In interior matters, Ishiba Shigeru wants to focus on, for example, the problem of low fertility rates, or improving the surviving conditions of the poorest regions.
The current Prime Minister besides wrote out premature general elections to parliament (27 October). Not rather popular in the party, he may want to gain social legitimacy for his power.

On Tuesday, October 1, the nipponese parliament approved the election of Shigeru Ishiby as the fresh Prime Minister. erstwhile Minister of Defence defeated in the second circular by 215 to 194 votes Takaichi Sanae – inactive then Minister of economical safety and close associate Shinzo Abe [1]. What do we know about Fumio Kishida's successor and what directions will he take in national and abroad politics?

Ishiby Shigeru's political career began in 1986 erstwhile he was first elected a associate of the home of Lower Parliament. At the time, he was 29 years old and was the youngest in the position. His father was Ishiba Jiro, serving in the past as politician of 1 of the nipponese prefectures and Minister of Interior. He graduated from Keio University and then started working at the bank. The planet of politics stood before him erstwhile after his father's death he was recommended by his friend – erstwhile Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei [2].

In 1992, he was elected Minister of Agriculture, but his interests focused on defence and military. Sam admitted that this was related to the outbreak of the First Gulf War, as well as a visit to North Korea. A year later, he left the Liberal-Democratic organization and joined the Renew organization of Japan, but returned after a fewer years [3]. Since then, he has held positions specified as the Minister of Defence and again Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Before he succeeded in the election for Liberal-Democratic organization president and thus Prime Minister of Japan, he lost 4 times to rivals specified as Taro Aso, Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga [4].

The election as organization leader may have been surprising, considering that among the members of the group it is not peculiarly popular. This may consequence in the memory of leaving PLD at a critical minute in 1993, as well as the unfavorable statements of the current Prime Minister about high-ranking organization members [5]. However, this critical approach makes the public feel rather affirmative about him. Early parliamentary elections (27 October) are approaching, and public assurance in the ruling organization has almost continuously since 1955 (except for 2 periods between 1993 and 1994 and 2009 and 2012) has decreased after corruption scandals involving members [6 ]. Thus, the choice of Ishida Shigeru as a leader, who is besides more average in right-wing views, could be considered in terms of the future of the group.

So what can we anticipate in the abroad policy of the fresh Prime Minister?

In his exposé, he pointed out that an alliance with the US is crucial to Japan's safety and stableness in the Indo-Pacific region, which will proceed to strengthen, peculiarly in terms of atomic deterrence and consequence capacity.

At the same time, he noted the request for a change in the position of American soldiers stationed in Japan to reduce their influence in the region and to increase the importance of the nipponese Self-defense Forces. In his relation with China, the Prime Minister expressed his desire to build unchangeable and constructive relations, but stressed that he would argue attempts to change the position quo in the region. Ishiba Shigeru is aware of this threat and expressed his willingness to dialog in the event of expanding tension in the region [7]. In this context, even before winning the election, the future Prime Minister put forward the thought of creating an Asian NATO-like alliance to prevent China from being aggressive in Taiwan. However, in his exposé he omitted this issue, most likely after criticising this proposal, as it was considered unrealistic, for example, for reasons of different approaches to safety issues in the countries of the region. [8]. Ishiba clearly realizes that raising this subject before the elections can origin further criticism. Instead, he announced the promotion of neighbourhood stableness and general actions to keep a law-based order. He besides wants to work with the G7, Australia and South Korea associate States. The second paid peculiar attention in his speech, stressing the importance of cooperation in the current situation, despite not full stabilised bilateral relations. Japan and South Korea are burdened with a common colonial past that both governments and societies cannot forget. This makes advancement in their relation easy obscured by various controversy, e.g. territorial or reparations. Faced with a safety threat in that part of the world, Prime Minister Ishida, despite many challenges, aims to celebrate the 60th anniversary of normalization of relations with South Korea and keep the assurance that Yoon Suk Yeol and erstwhile nipponese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida managed to rebuild. With respect to North Korea, in addition to highlighting the threat posed by this country, the fresh Prime Minister will search to implement the provisions of the Pyongyan Declaration. [9]. In 2002, the DPRK declared that it would let the return to the homeland kidnapped in the 1970s and 1980s to the nipponese people, but Ishida stressed that all victims had inactive not been released [10].

Other abroad policy issues raised by the fresh Prime Minister include further imposing sanctions on Russia and supporting Ukraine, stepping up cooperation with ASEAN and the Global South, or climate action. All these priorities reflect a realistic and pragmatic approach to abroad policy, which focuses on strengthening alliances, developing cooperation with the countries of the region and seeking stableness in the Indo-Pacific area, while tackling threats from countries specified as China, Russia and North Korea. Ishiba Shigeru called the current situation on the global phase “the strictest and most complex” since planet War II, and the violations of Japan's airspace by these countries a serious threat to sovereignty not only for the country but besides for the remainder of the region and the planet [11]. It so wants to strive to strengthen its country's defence capacity and to be an crucial partner in alliances.

Ishiba Shigeru besides addressed the challenges of interior policy in his expose. As already mentioned, 1 of them is to regain public assurance in the ruling organization after corruption scandals involving members [12].

To this end, he began by filling positions in his government with politicians who had nothing to do with the scandals. Interestingly, among 19 ministers only 2 are women, which shows that there is inactive a sex equality problem in Japan [13]. Another challenge facing the nipponese government has for any time been the phenomenon of an ageing population, which is due to a low birth rate. The fresh Prime Minister announced support for families with young children, for example in the form of flexible working hours, to encourage young people to establish them. Ishiba Shigeru besides notes that there is simply a wide variety of birth rates and matrimony rates in the regions of the country, so action to support individual prefectures can be expected. In economical terms, the fresh government is to focus on developing and supporting poorer areas as well as tiny and medium-sized enterprises. The nipponese fear rising cost of living, and the government will gotta pay large attention to the fight against advanced prices and to rise minimum wages. This strategy will so proceed its predecessor's economical policy. To sum up Ishiba Shigeru's statement, these and another actions aim to increase the level of satisfaction and safety in Japan [14].

It is worth mentioning that the earlier parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place little than a period after the approval of the fresh Prime Minister. The resolution of the current parliament took place on 9 October.

Ishiba knows that his own organization does not feel besides much sympathy for him, so as shortly as possible he wants to get the public's support and thus the legitimacy of his power. The first period of government is besides usually a time erstwhile it is hard to make decisions to lead to a decline in political popularity, of which the fresh Prime Minister is surely aware. utilizing the popular opinion so far, it besides wants to gain the support of the undecided, and those in 1 survey were as much as 47% [15]. In a fresh survey by the Kyodo Agency, the current ruling organization won 26.4% of respondents' votes, while the largest opposition organization – the Democratic organization Constitution – 12.4% [16]. A breakthrough in elections is improbable to be expected, and the LPD is likely to hold power, but this undecided part of citizens can make a large difference.

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