The challenges facing the North Atlantic Alliance are not only an increasingly precarious geopolitical situation in the world, conflicts in Ukraine and the mediate East, but besides climate change. This is clearly mentioned in the reports published annually. Read about how armies prepare to start with this different opponent in the July issue of “Polish Armed Forces”.
In mid-October 2018, Hurricane Michael, 1 of the strongest always toured the east coast of the United States, struck the U.S. Army base of Tyndall, Florida. All (!) base buildings were destroyed at the time, the aircraft stationed here were damaged – including 17 state-of-the-art F-22s. The losses then incurred were estimated at $4.7 billion. It's image one.
Second: In the first half of March 2025, in northern Norway, Natovian exercises were held behind the polar circle. ‘Joint Viking’. The goal was to improve the ability to operate in harsh winter conditions, on frozen, snow-covered terrain. However, the weather was rather a surprise: there were days erstwhile alternatively of snow and ice there was rain and mud. any of the planned exercises could not take place, the dense equipment was sinking into the soft ground.
Both of these distant events are due to climate change on the planet. There are many akin examples. This kind of situation is not only increasingly common, but besides has more serious consequences, and more and more forces and resources are needed to tackle them. small wonder, then, that this problem has become an interest at the level of the full North Atlantic Alliance.
Temperature's rising.
Climate change is increasing, as evidenced by the long-term observations – according to the planet Meteorological Organization 2023 was the warmest since the start of the measurements, with an average global temperature higher by 1.45°C compared to the pre-industrial period. – They are caused by many factors of changes in the full atmospheric circulation strategy on a global scale – explains Dr. Magdalena Kuchcik, Head of the Climate investigation Department from the Institute of Geography and Spatial Management of the Polish Academy of Sciences. “This is primarily the consequence of rising greenhouse gas concentrations. We have more energy in the atmosphere, the effect of which is to disturb all atmospheric phenomena – he explains. The investigator points out that climate change is uneven on Earth, but the increase in the frequency of utmost phenomena is recorded all over the globe: “We have an average minimum air temperature rising, maximum temperature is besides rising, we have prolonged periods of drought, dense precipitation and a strong increase in the frequency of all atmospheric extremes.”
This translates into very measurable losses. “We see that climate change is increasingly affecting many areas of our lives, including security,” says Gen. Marek Wawrzyniak, Head of the Board of Military Engineering and Deputy Inspector of Military Types of Armed Forces Command. The number of natural disasters resulting from climate change has been increasing in Poland for years. 1 of them is the flood which in 2024 visited the south-western provinces of the Republic. The General then coordinated the operations of the engineering troops during Operation Fenixduring which the military was providing assistance to the injured civilian population.
Extreme phenomena
Already in 2021, at the NATO Summit in Brussels, the heads of associate States adopted the Climate Change and safety Action Plan. The process initiated then led to the publication in 2022 of the first Natovian study analysing the way climate change affects the safety of associate States. In the following years, 2 more were published, presenting the challenges that their armed forces are already facing. The 2022 study identifies as many as 10 issues that pose a challenge to the associate States' armed forces due to the changing climate. Among them are threats caused by utmost weather events. On the 1 hand, the utmost heat that has hit Western Europe and the United States, the long-term droughts that hit agriculture (this in turn can origin problems with access to food, and so it is simply a substance of food security), but besides lead to devastating fires in the vast areas of the Mediterranean and North America. On the another hand, the effects of climate change are heavy, dense rains, leading to flooding and catastrophic floods – in fresh years they have been experienced by both Central Europe, including Poland and the Western Balkans and Spain.
Natural disasters straight affect the safety of the Alliance associate States. They hit military infrastructure, resulting in the demolition of military bases and equipment, e.g. the repeated demolition of U.S. military bases on the East Coast – due to climate change, hurricanes haunting the east coast of the United States are expanding and the harm they origin is increasing. The consequence of the fires that raged in central Greece in July 2023 was, among others, the detonation of ammunition warehouses located in the Greek Air Force Base in Nea Anchialos. due to the fact that the substance is becoming urgent, doctrinal papers adapted to their own circumstances have developed the largest armies of the Alliance, including American, British or German. Polish, too, is the “National strategy for preparing the armed forces for climate change”, which was published in early 2024. What does that come from? – Climate change has a negative impact on the environment, causing, inter alia, its degradation, thereby expanding the hazard of failure of stableness and safety of the functioning of the state. This straight affects the defence area, as indicated by Brig-Gen Artur Dębczak, Deputy Head of the Armed Forces Support Office, and at the same time president of the squad who developed the Polish strategy.
How do you fight it?
Due to increasingly frequent cases of utmost weather events, the costs of handling equipment and their emergency are increasing. This is highlighted by Brig-Gen Artur Dębczak. “One of the key challenges will undoubtedly be utmost weather events, which will consequence in the armed forces having to adapt military equipment and infrastructure, changing the way staff training is being trained. The acquisition of arms and equipment of the next generation must go hand in hand with the ability to change its usage in fresh operating conditions, due to changes in the climate," he explains. It is important, as the general points out, that 1 more phenomenon: "The operational requirements of the usage of the armed forces and the extension of their tasks, among others, to support the public should be expected". This is already happening, a sign of which is the very intense improvement of cooperation between the military and civilian institutions in addressing the effects of natural disasters. – Although the military's primary task is not to respond to crises, it engages in this field very often, says Gen. Marek Wawrzyniak. "We request to be ready for this in view of the increasingly frequent crises arising from climate change. It is essential to improve fast consequence procedures, but besides to make effective cooperation between troops and civilian services in crisis situations," he added.
The Natowski study of 2024 indicates another crucial dimension for the military: "The risks of climate change may lead to higher maintenance and repair costs, pose a threat to the safety of military personnel and consequently affect the effectiveness and readiness of the military". It is so recommended that a associate State should establish specialised, military-independent structures with the main task of combating the effects of natural disasters. The point is that the soldiers should be focused on their most crucial task, which is deterrence and the defence of the country. In Poland, a akin structure already exists: it is simply a territorial defence army. They are headed by Brig-Gen Krzysztof Stańczyk, who is besides the head of the Centre for Emergency Management of the MON. “WOT’s mission is to support the local community, to defend permanent areas of responsibility, but besides to act in crisis situations,” he recalls.
An example of their effectiveness was the said Operation FeniksWhich gene. Stańczyk was in charge. It was attended not only by territorials, but besides by soldiers of operational units and subjects. “We have interacted with another services, but besides with the civilian administration,” the general points out. – As WOT we are close to local communities. We usually put ourselves first where there are problems. But our actions are supported by others. We don't have dense equipment, excavators or dump trucks, including engineering troops, but this synergy of all troops in Operation Feniks has yielded an excellent effect – concludes Gen. Stańczyk.
And 1 more thing: the changing climate straight shapes the conditions in which soldiers will gotta work. Dr. hab. Magdalena Kuchcik, who emphasizes that, in a situation of warming climate, it may be necessary, for example, to prepare service clothes suitable for fresh conditions. – The problem may be to adjust the thermal insulation of the uniforms to the higher temperature at which the soldiers will serve. These must be modern fabrics that let the giving of heat – he points out.
Not just threats
Natural disasters are 1 thing. The consequences of climate change are besides rising sea levels – a thing of large importance for countries with advanced sea potential, specified as Britain or the United States. According to pessimistic estimates, sea levels up to 2100 may emergence from 60 to 150 cm! This will so consequence in an expanding hazard to coastal infrastructure, e.g. port infrastructure, in the long term.
The rising temperatures besides affect the military infrastructure in the Arctic area, as changes are faster there. With respect to the Nordic countries, but besides Canada and the United States, which have military installations far north, the consequence may be the fast degradation of the surface of the runways and runways, in turn the infrastructure erected on the alleged eternal frost can begin to collapse into the ground due to its thawing. The last year's Natowski study gives an example of the difficulties Finland already faces in the field of military infrastructure, especially at the Rovajärvi artillery camp.
Climate change, however, besides opens up fresh opportunities that are not yet available. The consequence of the retreat of ice may be, for example, the beginning of trade routes and communication routes in the Far North. They have so far been inaccessible for most of the year – and can become very forward-looking as they could reduce the time for the transport of goods between Asia and Europe.
Milder conditions in the Far North besides affect the availability of natural resources in the Arctic. It is estimated that there are tiny deposits of oil, natural gas, uncommon earth minerals that are already expanding the geopolitical importance of these areas. Because interest in the Arctic is besides increasing from Russia and China, the Alliance's strategical rivals – the force on collective safety is besides expanding not only in the east flank of the Alliance, but besides in the Arctic.
New points of inflammation
The Natowski study of 2024 besides highlights the issue of political instability in the immediate vicinity of the Alliance. It points out that climate change can contribute to a higher level of conflict and violence, especially in more susceptible regions specified as sub-Saharan Africa. The consequences of climate change are besides serious here, but their relation with the challenges to NATO's armed forces is indirect, as it is due to a chain of related events. utmost droughts can lead to famine and riot in the countries of the region, and extremist groups can so be heard.
The consequence of this chain of events? Another point of inflammation will arise. In a more distant perspective, the consequence may be a wave of migration, and then allied states will be on the front line of migration routes. The climate change-related local natural disasters at distant points in the planet can so translate into a direct threat to the safety of 1 of NATO's allied states. The full confederate flank of the Alliance faces akin problems, but besides Poland.
Much to do
Climate change affects most of the risks to date and it is so crucial to address both the effects and the changes themselves. The request to build in armed forces, but besides the awareness of the impact of climate change on security, is so stressed. It besides points to the request to adapt military capabilities and social resilience to climate challenges, in order to guarantee greater efficiency and capacity for the armed forces in changing conditions.
Polish armed forces are besides aware of this. “The Armed Forces Support Office is taking many actions in connection with climate change and its impact on security,” says Brig-Gen Artur Dębczak. "This is done by expanding environmental awareness, but besides by changing training programmes to prepare military units, equipment and people to execute tasks in utmost weather phenomena, as well as to repair damaged infrastructure, reconstruct mobility and supply public support," he explains.
As climate change is becoming increasingly felt, further strengthening of military cooperation with civilian institutions seems crucial - thus responding to crises will be more effective. Referring to the experience gained from the Feniks operation, Gen. Dyw. Marek Wawrzyniak notes: "The key component is the integration of the crisis management strategy and the improvement of cooperation with civilian administration. It is about joint training and exercises, the consolidation of common procedures – all of which are part of the national emergency consequence strategy and not just the combat force.” The General besides points out that it is crucial to make a catalogue of dual-use equipment. It's mostly engineering equipment. I mean, for example, road folding bridges, which are part of the crossings for military dense equipment, while in civilian usage they can be utilized in crisis situations as an component ensuring communication and safety of individual localities. We utilized them erstwhile removing the effects of last year's floods, e.g. in Głochołaza – like Gen. Wawrzyniak. It besides draws attention to exploratory drones, which, in civilian and crisis situations, are utilized to find missing persons or to monitor the state of flooded areas, vehicles, boats, but besides to engineering machines: excavators, graders, scrapers that can be utilized for military purposes or to remove the effects of natural disasters.
You can besides think now about what can be improved. Brig-Gen Krzysztof Stańczyk stresses: “We deficiency a common platform for the exchange of information on all services and non-military systems. It besides cites the experience of Operation Feniks, which suggested certain solutions. – We have recommendations that each WOT brigade has 1 – 2 containers with the right equipment. It is about power generators, Starlinks, which work well erstwhile there is no electricity, light masts, wheelbarrows, galoshes, brooms, so that it doesn't should be bought ad hoc by military economical troops – he says. This will guarantee that, in the event of a crisis, everything essential is ready in time.
The reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC are alarming, as they show that climate change is progressing and that global safety will be increasingly affected in the coming years. They will besides pose a real challenge to the readiness of the armed forces worldwide. The North Atlantic Alliance, as an global organisation, has many military and civilian tools to support action by individual associate States to combat natural disasters that are the consequences of climate change. However, it already seems essential to strengthen civil-military cooperation and to increase civilian crisis consequence capacity. This is clearly confirmed by the experience gained from Operation Fenix. It is impossible to foretell another natural disaster, but it is surely better to be prepared for specified a situation.
