What, then, in a year of uncertainty, do we need? The determination, optimism and belief that a consistent, determined action can overcome the challenges facing the planet today. Unfortunately, past can repeat itself. But that doesn't mean we're powerless.
After decades of comparative geopolitical stability, years of peace and a time of spectacular economical improvement and poorness reduction, the planet was at a crossroads. Increasingly stronger and more aggressive authoritarian powers are questioning the peaceful, global order dominated by the planet of Western democracy. extremist populism in Western democracies can break the alliance of the West and destruct the liberal values of our societies from the inside. The war in Ukraine and the relentless threat to our borders, inflation and economical crises, climate change, migration force and the anticipation of artificial intelligence are challenges that make concern.
What, then, in a year of uncertainty, do we need? The determination, optimism and belief that a consistent, determined action can overcome the challenges facing the planet today. Unfortunately, past can repeat itself. But that doesn't mean we're powerless. Our ancestors faced much greater challenges, yet they built action plans and fought for a better future. In moments of uncertainty, it is always worth reaching out to Winston Churchill's large speeches from the British period of fighting the 3rd Reich. They come from a period of darkness and problems, but inactive hard to compare with what Europe is facing today.
“All I can promise you is blood, pain, tears and sweat. We are faced with the most hard kind. We have many, many long months of fighting and suffering ahead of us. You're asking me about politics. I answer: to wage war at sea, land and in the air with all the strength and strength that the dark, tragic list of crimes surpasses nothing. It's our policy. You're asking me about the target. I can answer with 1 word: triumph – victory, even though the way to it is long and hard – due to the fact that without triumph there is no survival” [1].
Leaders should be required to show ways to solve problems, sometimes painful but effective, which will lead our societies out of problems. In the early 1990s, Tadeusz Mazowiecki, Leszek Balcerowicz and Jacek Kuroń were able to designate specified a direction for Poland. The direction actually continued by subsequent Polish ruling teams. present we request specified courageous leaders for Poland and the full of Europe. The European Union is inactive the best place to live. The bureaucratic stagnation and the bad explanation of key economic-geopolitic processes can, however, make European civilization marginalized and dominated by fresh planet powers based on non-liberal values.
We should not hastily abandon the solutions that have worked in the past and have brought spectacular economical improvement and a simplification in poorness in the world. Globalisation, liberal democracy and the free marketplace have proven to be the best in past as a remedy for mankind's problems. It proves it in his latest book, Capitalistic Manifesto Johan Norberg. The last forty years of a increasing global free marketplace have resulted in a simplification of global poorness from over 40% in 1980 to 8.4% in 20222 [2]. This resulted in: “The average life expectancy in the planet increased from 64 to almost 73 years between 1990 and 2019. The proportion of the world's primary education population increased rapidly and the proportion of illiterates fell by half from 35.7% to 13.5% (...). Between 2000 and 2020, the percent of working children in the 5-17 age group fell globally from 16% to somewhat below 10%" [3].
The beneficiaries of this spectacular economical growth were besides authoritarian states, frequently violently violating human rights. They built on fresh profits stronger repression apparatus and their own military power. The hopes of 30 years ago that the wealth of societies would automatically origin a wave of democracy and the spread of human rights in many places have not proved true. This does not mean that, in the face of the threats of authoritarianism, nothing should be changed in the model of globalisation and the policies of democratic states. The Democratic West must be ready for military challenges of possible confrontation with authoritarian states and keep up in the technological race. However, besides deep a rejection of the principles of free competition and global trade will have the other effect. Tested principles and our values are the top force of the Western world.
Particularly challenging present are the European countries, which, in defending their values, must note that we will not be able to keep up in a global competitive, military and technological race without changing economical and defence policies. As a result, we can shortly become a museum doomed to the grace of another powers. The collective economical strength of a united Europe is inactive tremendous and we are not doomed to marginalisation. However, the European Union must halt looking for a remedy for all the problems in the word "regulation" and return to building improvement mechanisms based on the marketplace and consumer choices and policies that will enable us to compete besides in global markets. We must make a favourable legal environment for the improvement of the latest technologies. usage AI for our good purposes alternatively of defending ourselves against it.
The European green governance must be corrected. The fight against climate change must become a global target, but it cannot make Europe impose costly standards only on itself, falling out of global markets, at the same time global warming without stopping it. The fight for a green future should be based on technological innovation and the offer of green but competitive products that will naturally be chosen by consumers. We should save nature and biodiversity, besides reaching for conventional measures. If the European Union should impose something on associate States, it is surely an work to radically extend protected areas, including the active recovery of certain agricultural and settlement areas. Especially those distant from large cities for new, recently planted national parks. It is possible and can gain immense public support. specified investments should act as large infrastructure investments, providing adequate compensation for people who will gotta move.
The biggest unknown year of 2025 remains Donald Trump's presidency and the anticipation of him causing a global economical crisis. The possible of customs wars with neighbours, China or the European Union can origin economical slowdown and inflation worldwide. Individual players can win on this move, but the full thing will lose. Will Trump actually fulfill his threats, or will blackmail negociate various American interests? We can divinate from the furrows. However, it is certain that Trump's presidency should not lower our determination to build transatlantic ties and keep the widest possible economical and political relations between Europe and the US. At the same time, the unpredictability of the situation must make Europe stand alone in terms of safety challenges and be prepared to worsen economical conditions.
The challenge concerning Ukraine may prove to be a baggage which Europe will gotta face on its own. The most likely script for Kiev is the forced continuation of the war. Doubtful that Putin would give Trump a gift in the form of peace on terms acceptable to Ukraine and the US. After all, it will be much more convenient for Russia to compromise the boot of the American president and put him in a situation where he will gotta choose between abandoning his ally and denying his electoral promises of peace and American isolationism. Moscow's goal is Ukraine full dependent on the Kremlin's ruler, and only a force policy can dissuade Putin from its implementation. The only hope remains the unknown economical situation in Russia, which can be bad adequate to force Putin to postpone his goal in time. The possible ceasefire at the price of territorial sacrifices must give Ukraine real safety guarantees and the presence of allied troops on the demarcation line. We must realise that as long as Putin reigns in the Kremlin and the formation he created, there will be no peace for Ukraine another than a guaranteed powerful military force.
At the same time, for the Western world, losing in the war in Ukraine would mean a hard to imagine embarrassment and a very probable beginning of the domino, in which global order will proceed to be undermined by the brutal, bare power of authoritarian powers. There will be many politicians like Orban or Fico ready to bow their heads before evil. In the name of the future of our children and all our values, this must not be allowed. Europe must so be ready to support Ukraine alone as long as necessary. For any another scenario, we will pay a much higher price.
Anyway, we're at a hybrid war with Russia. The Russian influences and electoral manipulations must be more radical. fresh procedures must be created to counter Russian misinformation and Russian political influences.
In 2025 Poland must take work for the direction of change for Europe and remove the last barrier to a dynamic policy, which is the president from the Camp of Law and Justice. Rafał Trzaskowski is simply a hope for a causative ruling camp. Karol Nawrocki at the Presidential Palace is simply a probable paralysis and breakdown of the ruling coalition. So the stakes are truly very high.
I besides very much hope that the end of 2025 will bring not only the essential moves in economical and defence policy, but besides a solution to world-view issues that should not go further. The Coalition promised citizens and citizens a change on 15 October as well. The right to choose for women, the liberalisation of anti-abortion law, partnerships – these are our clear expectations on the list of matters to be settled by December 2025.
[1] Winston Churchill, speech of May 13, 1940 in the home of Commons; https://electoral.pl/7,175991,28114413,write-how-winston-churchill-simple-clear-celnie.html.
[2] Johan Norberg, Capitalistic Manifesto, p. 24.
[3] Johan Norberg, Capitalistic Manifesto, p. 24.
