‘Americans will search a leading ally on the east flank of NATO, which could take over part of military efforts. In Poland there are voters who, unlike Germans, would support the military effort to build a safety system. This can be used" – says Prof. Przemysław Żurawski a.k.a. Grażewski.
atPoliticy.pl: The full planet is looking towards Washington, where president Donald Trump is sworn in. For weeks now, we have been wondering how the fresh leader of the United States will decide. We Poles are most curious in how attempts to end the war in Ukraine will take place. What scenarios do you think are possible?
Prof. Przemysław Żurawski a.k.a. Grajewski: Of course, there's no uncertainty here. The most crucial thing from our point of view is how the situation in the East will develop, and this mostly depends on the United States. I think that both Trump's camp and the Democratic camp would indeed like to make any kind of agreement with Russia. However, I do not think that specified an agreement will be reached. Trials will, of course, be made, and this has already happened. Let me remind you that there was a gathering of Russian envoys in Washington with Trump experts, but nothing was agreed. The Russians did not agree to ceasefire in time for appropriate negotiations. I uncertainty that they will be able to halt their offensive by diplomatic means erstwhile it moves forward. Trump, whatever my plans are, he's gonna gotta face that kind of reality. The Russians have rejected Trump's alleged plan, which they find unsatisfactory, but he, too, must be admitted, is unrealistic.
Why?
Because Americans presume that Russia can be saturated. That Putin is waged a land war, and as possible Russia will be satisfied. but this isn't a land war. This is an existential conflict, namely the existence or non-existence of the Ukrainian state. But that's not the Russians' strategical goal either.
What is it?
The strategical goal is to gain the starting principles for demolishing European governance, which is to push Americans out of Europe. The absorption of Ukraine and its human resources would decision the baseline to this attack. Russia cannot be satisfied until it reaches the state of 1815 erstwhile we had a performance of European powers with Russia in the lead function after defeating Napoleon and without the United States.
So you're saying you think negotiations with Russia could go through with anything?
I believe that even if the Trump administration takes it, and everything indicates that there is political will, it will yet neglect to do so.
Both Warsaw and Kiev will explain to Trump, and they even explain that it is not about the earth, that peace cannot be concluded, that Russia can only be negotiated from the position of force, so first it is essential to arm Ukraine and origin Russia to neglect on the front, and only then will it be possible to find how these fights are to end, alternatively than erstwhile Russian troops decision forward. I think no substance what Trump wants or doesn't want, it doesn't take 2 sides to fight. It's adequate that Russia wants this war, so it'll continue.
What will be the biggest challenges that Donald Trump will face at the beginning of his presidency?
It will, of course, be interior issues. The electorate does not anticipate to solve the problems of the world, but its own. And that will undoubtedly be the focus of Trump. This is what he said: “Make America large Again”. Trump in his own backyard has quite a few problems to solve. Starting from the order of ideological madness, through energy issues, lowering taxes, photograph of various restrictions, both in the media and in the field of linguistic political correctness, ending with legal regulations on promotion of LGBT ideology. possibly there will be any accounts for the operation of the erstwhile team. But I say Trump and his camp will focus primarily on healing the operation of the state apparatus. You can see the beginning of a business transition to fresh positions. Facebook has done it recently. The more Trump's camp presents itself as victorious and efficient in action, the more it will attract cyclicalists under its wing, which is besides the natural process of all power. The issue of immigration, the fight against crime, the deportation of illegal immigrants who have been in the United States will be very important. We must not forget trade issues either. All directions in which Trump and his camp believe the United States is injured will be viewed and decisions will most likely be made. This can affect the European Union, but besides Canada or Mexico. We besides have a question of how relations with China can be arranged. Trump will look for opportunities to remove burdens from the shoulders of American voters in all possible areas, including military, which can be a challenge for Poland.
What do you mean?
Americans will search a leading ally on the east flank of NATO, which could take over part of military efforts. In Poland there are voters who, unlike Germans, would support the military effort to build a safety system. This can be utilized due to the fact that it will be the main choice for Americans: will they bet on Germany or Poland? These are the decisions Trump will make, and here you can look for your chances. But Americans must have a partner in Poland who would take this game and this offer, but I do not know if they will find it in the current government.
What function will Elon Musk play in Trump's camp?
I think Musk is in a comfortable position, even for Trump. It is beneficial due to the fact that Musk is not the authoritative typical of the state. As a result, he is allowed more and can always be called the American constitution, which guarantees his freedom of speech. The position of the alleged freelancer presently occupied by Elon Musk with his capital is simply a better position to advance or probe various ideas by the president himself. Washington, if the effort is unsuccessful, it can always say that it was a private initiative of Musk, and if it is positive, it will stay supportive.
Can Conservatives hope for a revolution?
I think so. Trump will be 1 factor. The United States and American pop culture have a immense impact on the world. If things change there, and I think they will, it will affect everyone. Conservatives will be able to trust on fresh experiences, which are likely to be effective, and if further economical improvement follows, then, in the light of the crisis and economical decline in Europe, people will start to tie these things together. Not always right, but they will.
