Russia's expert warns against further provocations by Putin. It speaks of “shanty”

Prof. Włodzimierz Marciniak believes that a unusual coincidence was the intrusion of Russian drones into Polish airspace almost at the same time as Vladimir Putin visited China and met Xi Jinping. And yet, at a akin time, in the government's “Russian Gazeta” an article was published signed by Sergei Karaganov — a political scientist who had previously frequently threatened the West with atomic weapons. Prof. Marciniak points out that Karaganov wrote “We have decided not to usage our most terrible weapon,” which means, according to the erstwhile ambassador, that Russia has resigned from the “nuclear blackmail”, among others, due to China.

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Expert on Russia: There will most likely be further provocations

The Politologist believes that all these events can relate. — alternatively of atomic blackmail, there will be conventional blackmail. It is no secret that China does not want to usage atomic weapons or usage them as a threat or as an argument in global relations,” he says in an interview with Belsat.

He besides points out that the continuation of the war in Ukraine can be beneficial for both China and Russia. For Xi Jinping's country — due to the fact that “the protracted conventional war weakens Russia and engages the West” and for Putin's empire — due to the fact that “as long as he fights, he can number on “something” to happen.” The conflict, in his view, can proceed for many years, and economical issues, not discussions, can decide whether it ends. However, no substance how it ends, there will be no winner here.

About Russian drones entering Poland and reports from another European countries on akin incidents Prof. Marciniak speaks as a circumstantial test from Russia, which received a signal on how NATO can respond to a possible massive attack. In his opinion, it is "to shift the escalation to another level". “The Russian answer will most likely be further provocations. In theory, the further script is known from the Cold War period — for all MiG-31 there will be an F-16 and for all hacking attack there will be a counterattack. What happens in reality? I don’t know.