A fewer days ago, the president of Ukraine presented the "Winning Plan" to the Werchowna Council (Ukrainian Parliament). According to Volodymyr Zelenski, accepting these assumptions would warrant peace as early as 2025. The formal recipients of the proposal – and so besides the guarantors of success – are Kiev allies, especially the USA. However, it is hard to defy the impression that the presentation of the plan is simply a procedure for Ukrainian interior policy, which aims to prepare the public to accept compromise peace solutions.
Zelenski's plan was supported by General Walerij Załużny, a erstwhile commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, presently the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK. In the meantime, it could be expected that the general, dismissed from command as a consequence of the president's decision, would spare no criticism from the superior. Especially since the speech of Zelenski was alternatively cold in the country, stressing the wishful nature of these proposals. – We must get safety guarantees for ourselves and for our children. And that's something we can solve right now, even today. And I support what the president of Ukraine said about it. Ukraine simply needs to join NATO," said Zażyny during his speech at the London think tank Chatham House. What's the game about?
Ukraine's unconditional invitation to the Alliance is the first point of the presidential plan. At the same time, the first, border-based reason for scepticism, with which the West approaches the proposal of the Ukrainian head of state. In point two, Zelenski spoke of the necessity of "turning the war towards Russia", behind which there is the anticipation of both temporary business of the Federation territory and beatings on the deep Russian rear. This item contains an annex revealed only to Kiev's most crucial allies.
The 3rd point besides includes assumptions that have not been made public. It provides for a "comprehensive non-nuclear strategical deterrence package" in Ukraine to halt further Russian aggression. In another words, the West would send troops there.
The 4th point concerns Ukraine's strategical and economical potential. It contains another classified annex made available to the US and EU leaders. "Ukraine proposes that the United States, together with any partners, in peculiar the European Union, of which Ukraine will be part, and with another partners in the world, conclude a peculiar agreement on the common protection of Ukraine's critical resources, (and also) joint investment and usage of (national) economical potential," said Zelenski in the parliament. In simple terms, we will give you any of our natural deposits if you set up protection over them.
Visit of the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenski in the Zaporosk Oblast, the site of fierce fighting with Russian troops in Ukraine, 4 February 2024. Photo: Associated Press/East News
Finally, the last component in which the Ukrainian army's experience is being exploited. According to the President, it could take over any of the tasks carried out in Europe so far by US troops. aid us and we will be your gendarme – that could be said.
Like most commentators, I am skeptical of these proposals. The West, especially the US, has all the means and tools to accept and implement the Ukrainian "winning plan". It is economically and militarily superior to Russia many times – but for 1 aspect where forces are levelled. Or they may be, but there's only 1 way to find out – starting a war. Nuclear. It is about Russia's atomic arsenal and its perception in the West. As long as it is filled with fears of escalation, the United States – and the remainder of the allies behind it – will not aid Ukraine more than ever.
That's what Volodymyr Zelenski besides knows, so why this full plan? The president is playing “his own” here, wanting to strengthen his credibility in interior policy. He seeks to transfer work to allies as those who "insufficiently helped". This is most likely how he intends to justify the decision to enter into peace talks with the Russians, which will consequence in accepting territorial losses. It's a smart strategy, all the more credible due to the fact that the West is actually tempered – and it's not just about its own (Zelenski) survival. The point is that Ukraine should not burn from the inside erstwhile known rotten compromise area conditions. It is easier to accept failure erstwhile it is known that those who can aid will not help.
