Keith Kellogg forwarded Donald Trump's position on ending the armed conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation:
“We will tell the Ukrainians: either you sit down or we will turn the tap with help. We will tell the Russians, in turn, either you sit down or we will give the Ukrainians the weapon that will kill you in the battlefield.”
The results of this threat are already there, due to the fact that president Volodymyr Zelenski, for the first time since the outbreak of the conflict, said that Ukraine will not militarily recover Crimea and will search its return on the political path.
Division of Ukraine into 3 parts and further business – this is the plan of the Russian Federation, to which Ukrainian military intelligence reached. The strategical objectives of the Russian Federation have not changed since 24 February 2022 erstwhile Vladimir Putin's troops invaded Ukraine.
This task can be presented to the fresh United States administration.
The first part would be an area named by Moscow ‘new regions of Russia’, created after the annexation of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporosk and Khersonsk, Crimea and Sevastopol.
The second part of Ukraine would constitute a "pro-Russian state formation" with pro-Russian authorities, covering the following circuits: Kiev, Chernihowski, Sumski, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohradsk, Djepropetrovsk, Odski, Cherkaski, vineyards, ryemiers and the city of Kiev. According to Moscow's expectations, it would reject integration with the European Union and entry into NATO and let Russian Federation troops to be present in its territory.
The 3rd part is “discourses” in the west of Ukraine, covering Volynski, Ryeński, Chmielnicki, Lviv, Ivanofrankowski, Tarnopolski, Czerniowiecki and Zakarpackie circuits. Moscow believes that the future of these areas should be determined by Russia in cooperation with neighbouring countries – Poland, Hungary and Romania
(Member 2024).
Let's hope that during the negotiations on ending the conflict, The West will not agree to the proposal to divide Ukraine into these 3 parts, but that is not so certain. Historically, Western European states (Great Britain, France, now besides Germany) usually chose the interests of the Russian Empire (Tsaric Russia, USSR, Russian Federation) alternatively than the interests of the countries and nations of Central and east Europe.
The problem may besides be the United States, which for over 100 years has been defending the Russian Empire (Russia Carska, USSR, Russian Federation) before the fall.
In 1920, the United States withdrew from the Siberian Intervention and as part of the NEP (New economical Policy) sold the USSR everything needed to make of backward, agricultural Russia, an industrial-military power.
From 1941 to 1945, the United States provided so much weapons and food to the USSR that in Tehran, Yalta and Potsdam Stalin pulled out half of Europe.
During the dissolution of the USSR into 15 national states, completed by the Bialowieza Agreement, the United States did everything possible to halt this process. Fortunately, without success.
When the Russian Federation began to fall apart at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, this time the United States effectively blocked this process, forcing Western countries to neglect to recognise the emerging states. It cost Chechnya 200,000 dead and murdered.
Now, too, the United States is doing everything to prevent Ukraine's decisive victory, due to the fact that it would endanger the dissolution of the Russian Federation.
I believe and hope that Ukraine will not be divided into 3 parts, but undoubtedly the areas presently occupied will stay in the Russian Federation. This situation can be compared to the first partition of the Republic of Poland in 1772, only that there is now only 1 divorcing.
There are already guerrillas in the occupied areas and in the Russian Federation. These are formations organized by the military authorities of Ukraine, but they are besides cells that are formed spontaneously.
I would like to focus here on the guerrilla I call "civil" for this document.
I'm a non-military civilian myself, which is why I won't decision any substance I don't know anything about. I respect the military, but besides with a certain amount of reserve due to the fact that I don't realize their mentality. Throughout the years (in the interwar period for 20 years), they were the main consumer of the budget, and erstwhile the war broke out and they began to lose battles, capitulating, alternatively of hiding or destroying weapons, they gave it to the enemy army (Wermaht, Red Army) and went to the forgings or stalags. Only those in the East had bad luck, due to the fact that so-called. Chief Marshal Edward Smigły-Rydz, alternatively of declaring the state of war with the USSR, has greased, under the dictatorship of the Ambassador of France or the United Kingdom, the alleged General Directive: “The Soviets have entered. I order a general withdrawal to Romania and Hungary on the shortest routes. Don't fight the Bolsheviks...” and he went to Romania.
Quite seriously, I am afraid that it may be the same now, and again mostly civilians will fight for independence.
I realize a civilian organization as a voluntary organization of civilians who want to harm the occupier and the cooperative institutions and organizations.
As a rule, a civilian partisan would not usage firearms and only exceptionally explosives and would not know the concept of an order and its participants would take action on a voluntary basis.
It just so happens that an individual, guided by somewhat akin rules, actually existed in the structures of the Home Army, in Vilnius, during the German occupation. The customs of this unit were not known to the higher command, and the commander of this unit had no choice but to tolerate this condition. The unit, to a large extent, was staff of the University of Vilnius, who did not see the anticipation of action without discussing the task and voting on whether they would undertake it. It besides applied the rule of volunteering to execute the task. Against the background of appearances, the activities of this branch were effective and free from alleged failures.
The activities of this branch were described in the memoirs of Bronisław Krzyżanowski, ps. “Baltruk” (Krzyżanowski 1993)
What kind of action is it these days?
It would mainly be civilian attacks on critical infrastructure of occupied areas in Ukraine and in the Russian Federation, carried out utilizing tools commonly available to construction markets and “accessible” machinery on construction sites.
I mean specified items as: steel saws, based on electrical or combustion drive, drilling machines, tiny manual and mechanical winches, tourist gas and fuel cylinders, set of beginning keys, tools for opening, steel ropes and plastics and natural materials.
When it comes to machines, I mean: Caterpillar-class bulldozer excavator, truck dumpers, fuel tanks and gas tanks, etc.
With these tools, vehicles and materials you can cut off full cities or districts from electricity, central heating, water, gas and telecommunications. A large part of the city can besides be flooded with its own sewage from the sanitation.
By turning the rail, tram and breaking the electrical traction and destroying the electronic control devices, communication can be paralyzed.
Contrary to appearances, the methods of civilian combat outlined do not should be little "bloody" than the conventional armed conflict with firearms and explosives.
The triggering of humanitarian crises, with actions specified as cutting off electricity, central heating, water, gas and telecommunications, made at -20 degrees C, is more dangerous than bombings or firearms.
There are many another terrible things to do to the occupier and the collaborators that are better off not to compose about so as not to offend readers.
There is another sphere of activity that is no longer a strictly civilian activity, but which is worth considering. The fast improvement of drones and not only of those flying, but besides of water, underwater and terrestrial gives large opportunities for diversion.
You gotta break off stereotypes and remember that all drones connect only the control and communication system, and their form can be any:
– the flying drone can be both a wooden-carton plane made by teenage modelers with a fitted defence grenade as well as a Boeing 777 filled with maximum fuel and explosives,
– the floating drone can be, both a model ship with a trotyl cube and a bulk ship filled with ammonium salt (vidi: Beirut 2020) or a tanker full of fuel.
– a land drone can be, both a model car from a remote-controlled toy store as a tanker filled with liquid gas (vidi: An detonation at the Los Alfaques campsite in Alcanar, Spain 1978).
It is besides crucial that the Ukrainian partisan war does not gotta run only on land, but it can besides proceed on the seas and oceans, and it does not gotta apply only to the coastal waters of the Russian Federation, but it can besides cover global sea routes on which not only the warships of the Russian Federation could be sunk, but besides commercial vessels carrying and importing goods and natural materials from and to the Russian Federation.
For this reason, the location of Poland is important, due to the fact that next to it lies the Oblast of Królewiecki with a war port in Baltic and our coast lies on the road to St. Petersburg.
I was able to check by telephone that Grupa Azoty Chemical Plant “Police” S.A. will sale any amount of ammonium nitrate. All you gotta do is pay and replace the bulk ship in the port of Świnoujście, which they will burden themselves.
The only question is: Baltic or Peterzburg?
It should besides be remembered that the attacker, the Russian Federation, does not designate a theatre of war activities for the assaulted. The Ukrainian army as well as Ukrainian guerrillas can choose their own place and time of retaliation. The partisans' attack may take place from the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, the Ochocki Sea and the nipponese Sea, but above all from within the Russian Federation.
It so happens that more than 2% of the citizens of the Russian Federation declare Ukrainian nationality. Knowing the panic in the Russian Federation, the citizens who consider themselves Ukrainians are respective times more. Most of them inactive believe that Ukraine is ruled by the fascist right, but slow the fact about the war against Ukraine comes to light. There are besides respective tens of thousands of Ukrainian children and teenagers kidnapped from Ukraine, who will regain a sense of national identity over the years. These environments will besides be environments from which Ukrainian guerrillas will recruit. Even now, it is hard to believe that the guerrillas who attack drones, inside the Russian Federation, critical infrastructure facilities, are just officers of Ukrainian intelligence.
Finally, it is worth noting that at today's level of electronic and imaging surveillance, it is risky to make larger organizational cells. In this situation, it is the lone wolf activity that will be the most effective.
The “Lone Wolf” is virtually untraceable before the task is carried out. His fate, after completing the task, depends mainly on his cunning, happiness and ability to evacuate from the area where he conducted the attack.
In practice, it looks like this: it is officially going on a weekly vacation in Crimea, and on the last day it performs the task which it has chosen, it rapidly returns, for example, to Cuba and search for wind in the field.
In conclusion, if it comes to the partition of Ukraine, logistical and propaganda support will be needed for Ukrainian guerrilla activities in the occupied Ukraine and in the Russian Federation.
How the Ukrainians will fight, they will decide.
However, for the reasons previously indicated, I believe that the preferred form of action should be civilian forms of combat, and so mainly for participants of this form of combat we can and should make logistical and propaganda facilities in Poland.
It is mainly about training, leisure, treatment, hiding and evacuation of exposed guerrillas to countries that do not carry out extradition to the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Why Ukraine, too? That is due to the fact that it must be taken into account that the Russian Federation agentry may install in Ukraine pro-Russian authorities that will prosecute Ukrainians fighting in guerrilla troops in occupied areas and within the Russian Federation. Georgia can be an example of this. In 2008, no 1 would have thought Georgia would always regulation pro-Russian forces.
There's 1 more thing. The fight against the Russian Federation is right and necessary, but political action should not be forgotten. We should advance the thought of defeating the Russian Federation by dissolving it against the position of the United States and European powers, France, large Britain and Germany. It is adequate to retreat the Russian Federation's designation as an entity of global law and to offer specified designation to the Republics, Countries and Autonomous Circuits. This will origin a domino effect and the Russian Federation will end up like the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1918. About 65 fresh states will rise, including cultural Russia, the size of Ukraine, which will no longer endanger anyone, as no longer endanger Austria and Hungary.
It is worth mentioning that in 2022, in Poland, an organization was created: Forum of Post-Russian States (https://www.freenationsrf.org/ru), which aims to divide the Russian Federation into 41 national states. Recently, Putin included this organization on the list of terrorist organizations: "Sad irony". Russia considered the organization founded in Poland to be terrorists.
(https://www.tvp.info/83637135/rosja-forum-free-state-post-Russian-recognized-as-terrorist-ma-Union-z-polska)
Source:
Member Matthew 2024. That's how they want to divide Ukraine. "Three separate parts": https://awareness.wp.pl/tak-chca-dividing-ukraine-three-repair-parties-7094790572927584a
Krzyżanowski Bronisław 1993. Vilnius mater. 1939-1944 (from the past of “Wachlarza” and the Home Army). Educator, Warsaw, 351 pp. ill., maps.
By the way,
