– Jakub Kwiatkowski talks to prof. Bogdan Góralczyk

– Jakub Kwiatkowski talks to prof. Bogdan Góralczyk

Hungarians are preparing to settle Viktor Orbán's rule, who has ruled indivisibly for 16 years. This time, the opponent is not a broken coalition of conventional parties, but a powerful social movement centered around Péter Magyar – a man who challenged the organization from which he came.

The upcoming elections will not just be a democratic solution, but a clash of 2 visions. Continuation of national-conservative governments friendly towards Putin or a extremist turn towards the centre and repair of relations with the European Union. Is the current polling wave of support for the opposition adequate to break through complicated electoral ordination and the media monopoly of power?

I talk about deep cracks in the system, mechanisms for maintaining control and possible scenarios with prof. Bogdan Góralczyk, polytologist, sinologist, diplomat and publicist. A specialist in past and Hungarian politics, author of books on Trianon and Fathers, Hungarian leaders in fresh history.

Jakub Kwiatkowski: Mr. Professor, on 12 April this year, the elections in Hungary. The opposition TISZA organization in fresh polls has achieved a crucial advantage over Fidesz. presently it is 11 percent points among the surveyed and 20 percent points among the determined voters. Do you think prof. Viktor Orbán has another ace up his sleeve, which he will pull on the last tower?

Bogdan Góralczyk: Absolutely. And it's quite a few aces due to the fact that Viktor Orbán ruled 16 years non-stop. He had besides been Prime Minister for 4 years before and made a state concrete. I mean, all the most crucial institutions in the state are filled by his people. He changed the constitution in 2012, which he built about 2 100 around the constitution laws. In each of them, it is recorded that they can only be remade by qualified majority 2/3. It is very hard to keep specified a majority in average democracy. These polls, which are recently, may give the current opposition a large majority, but I uncertainty that qualified. In this situation, the script of Poland can be repeated, only on a much larger scale. The opposition wins, but can't regulation due to the fact that she's paralyzed.

This is point one, but not the only one. The second point, which is besides small attention, is that since 20 March 2020 Viktor Orbán has ruled non-stop by decrees and practically by 1 person. virtually 3 days before our talk, he issued a fresh decree in which he announced that there was a state of emergency due to threats allegedly coming from Ukraine. There was quite a few controversy around it, both in Hungary and beyond. That's the second line. And third, Orbán is simply a very experienced politician and has a lot to lose. The opposition led by Péter Magyar succeeded in convincing the public that Orbán is completely corrupt and that his people would should be put in, and those from the immediate vicinity. So this stake is not just a average triumph or an election loser, but truly the future of the country and its direction. Many ask whether or not Orbán, with the possible that he might be treated as a suspect, would let himself to do so at all, or would alternatively apply any legal loopholes, specified as a decree that the situation is so dangerous that the elections will not take place. I don't want to speculate, but I know Orbán has a lot to lose. And yet nothing is at the minute erstwhile we talk, settled.

Assuming that the elections will take place full democratically and so will power be transferred, respective results and statistics: Since 2019 prices have risen by an average of 46%, with economical growth of around 2.5% of GDP.

More, I think. You know, I go to Hungary regularly. Hungary, which Poles do not know, unless they go to Hungary, has the highest VAT in the European Union, 27%, and since the pandemic the highest inflation. They are recordrs in the Union, besides in food commodities. Orbán tried to equalize it by introducing into any categories specified as flour, sugar, chicken ridges or adjustable kitchen oil prices, reduced. But these were interventions specified as real socialism, not a marketplace economy. And this is the reason why Orbán lost his soul government, due to the fact that the opposition managed to show the corruption of Orbán, his ostentatiousness and wealth, and people all day have nuisances of life, expanding supply problems, etc. In this sense, the situation has changed and it is not known whether blessing, that is, the authoritative support of Donald Trump and his administration is enough, as is the planned arrival of Benjamin Netanyahu. There was Marco Rubio in Budapest, and possibly JD Vance will come to the CPAC, or yearly conference of American Republicans and utmost Republicans there. erstwhile we talk, the situation is very dynamic, but I don't think that anything is full established yet.

Professor, we've kind of talked about this before, but how crucial will this election be? Made under Fidesz partially proportional and partially majority, will it paradoxically not turn towards Fidesz? To whom will it truly prove beneficial?

We don't know that due to the fact that there's a fresh situation not known for 16 years. We've never tested anything like this. There should be 199 parliamentary seats for planting, while 106 are in single-mandate districts. And the question is whether Fidesz, as in erstwhile elections in any districts in the country, will simply manage to buy voters and thus decide on his side. I don't know, but I know that these 106 single-mandate districts will find the result of the election.

In his fresh exposé abroad Minister Radosław Sikorski spoke about Moldova's efforts towards the European strategy and those European values. A small in this case, as you read the professor, do Hungarians feel isolation from them by the European Union, will it not be 1 of the main millstones of Orbán?

They feel it very much. The European Union and the attitude towards them is the main line of electoral run and division, due to the fact that Orbán speaks and speaks loudly and has a media monopoly that the Union is simply a organization to war. Ursula von der Leyen and the European Commission, in his opinion, which powerfully exposes government propaganda, lay for this war. And he wants peace. He's a peace party, he just doesn't talk, he doesn't say that on Putin's terms. As far as Péter Magyar is concerned, he is clearly in favour of the Union. Firstly, due to the fact that he was from giving Fidesz a diplomat of advanced rank in Brussels for many years, he speaks well English, etc. Now Magyar says that the first decisions he will make are to shut down the public media, read the government's Orbán, and secondly he will effort to get EU money at all costs, due to the fact that the Hungarians did not get as the only ones in the full KPO Union, these pocovid measures, and what is more, the next 2 years have already stopped 2 billion euros from cohesion funds, from the EU's 7-year budget. Moreover, there has been an initiative in the European Parliament that if Orbán had won these upcoming elections, he should have taken all his resources. This is simply a full sum of EUR 16 billion. And this is the stake that Péter Magyar now plays and shows how advanced he is, and Hungarians – according to the polls – are mostly behind him. At the same time, I have not said it, and this is crucial that it is not only about the concreteisation of the organization strategy in the country, but besides the fact that 1 3rd of the Hungarian electorate is existentially dependent on the Orbán regime. If he loses, then they all lose, which is 30-33% 3 percent he has by definition. And that's a serious problem.

You mentioned Orbán's fear of war in Ukraine and the drag of Hungarians into this conflict. Is Orbán's time to scare the war in Ukraine already over? Does this communicative even apply?

That's an election to confirm. It's worked so far. 4 years ago, Orbán won the election by threatening the war. Is he gonna make it now? I say not. On the another hand, there is simply a fundamental change that took place last year 2025, due to the fact that Péter Magyar appeared only 2 years ago. He was not known publicly, even in Hungary. And he jumped out on a pedophile scandal. Then she had to resign to president Katalin Novák and Péter's ex-wifeMagyara, Judit Varga, who was, or was, to be, because, however, she resigned, the Fidesz 1 in the last Euro-Parliamentary elections. So this is where the people were concerned, and Orbán ignored it, and Magyar rapidly built the facilities on YouTube, that is, on social media, and rapidly went to a state that the media does not reach. From village to village he walked and managed to convince Hungarians.

I give 2 examples, how many talking and interesting for the reader. A year and a half ago, the movie “Dynastia” appeared on Hungarian YouTube, of course in Hungarian, but there is simply a version with English subtitles, everyone can watch. And imagine that this film, which he treated about how immense the property reached the son-in-law of Viktor Orbán, István Tiborcz and the daughter of the Prime Minister, Ráhel. In 9.5 million Hungary, this movie has more than 4 million entries. And now, at the time of this campaign, a second video appeared on YouTube, about 10 days ago. It is called ‘A CSAPDA’, which means a trap in Hungarian. It shows the incredible money that the erstwhile president of the György Matolcsy National Bank and his boy Ádám have twisted over 400 billion forints, i.e. 4 billion Polish zlotys, a billion dollars somewhat counting, and then fled to Dubai. This movie has, like I saw 4 days before our conversation, 1.3 million entrances. Then, erstwhile Orbán saw that it had begun to work, he changed his own strategy: alternatively of promising what he had always done, i.e. pushing the native version of “Make Hungary large Again” that Hungary was large and doing it best, he began to scare. And the question is, are these wankers? I think that the majority of society is sick of it and I wonder if it can be an effective strategy or a double-edged weapon.

Professor, there's 2 things at the end. Firstly, could this failure besides weaken Robert Fico in Slovakia and would a possible triumph by Péter Magyar mean an immediate and extremist return in Hungary's abroad policy against the European Union and Russia in particular?

It's not Fico. This is simply a immense stake for Europe as a whole. If Viktor Orbán, with the active support of the current American administration, remains in power, then Orbán is building a patriot faction in the European Parliament. The anti-EU forces will get an extra boost to go this way. I don't gotta explain that in Poland.

Of course.

So it's not Fico. This is all about Europe. The second, if Péter Magyar had won, he had already won twice, including erstwhile after the gathering with Donald Tuski and Radosław Sikorski on the occasion of the Munich safety Conference, where they met, repeated that he would make his first visit to Warsaw. To the government, not to the Royal Palace. Let's not fool ourselves. Secondly, it speaks of a complete recovery, and I have already said that, in fact, policy towards the European Union, due to the fact that it will want to receive cohesion funds and any another means of repairing relations with Brussels, the European Commission and the Union. So Magyar's triumph means support for the forces that so far ruled and ruled Europe in the mainstream.

So we support Péter Magyar on April 12?

I don't support anyone due to the fact that I'm an analyst. On the another hand, I emphasise the importance and importance of this choice due to the fact that it is absolutely European. And in the light of the fact that we have a war in Ukraine and a totally different attitude towards it in Budapest and Warsaw, which has caused that for over a year and 3 months we have not even had a Polish ambassador in Budapest. On the another hand, we have a Polish government in exile, i.e. Mr Ziobra and Mr Romanowski. In this sense, I do not request to add how crucial these upcoming Hungarian elections are.

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Bogdan Góralczyk – political scientist, sinologist and experienced diplomat. He served as the Ambassador of Poland to Thailand, Philippines and Myanmar. erstwhile Head of the Cabinet of the Minister of abroad Affairs. He is simply a recognized expert in Asian and Hungarian affairs and author of many books, including “Hungarian Trianon Syndrome”. From 2016 to 2020, he served as manager of the European University of Warsaw Centre.