This year's parliamentary elections may have been groundbreaking for Polish politics. The losing of popularity Law and Justice did not stand a chance of obtaining a parliamentary majority, nor did the still-settling negative electorate of the Civic Coalition. The Confederacy here saw itself as the 3rd force to decide on the form of the future government; expectations were justified as the organization recorded advanced support in the polls for a long time, exceeding 10%. However, it ended with an unsatisfactory score of 7.16%. This crucial discrepancy between public opinion surveys and the result of the elections was not only due to controversy around any activists, but besides to the way the run was conducted.
Revolutionary elections
Although the Confederacy gained almost 300 000 fresh voters and introduced 18 Members, which allowed the establishment of a parliamentary club, many of its sympathizers are profoundly disappointed. Experienced MPs specified as Krystian Kamiński or Michał Urbaniak did not get re-election despite receiving more votes than last year, and the Confederacy's imagination as a 3rd force capable of disrupting PiSu and Platform's dominance proved to be besides much of an inflated balloon. There was very small to succeed, just exceeding the 7.5% threshold would double the number of mandates.
The atmosphere of this year's elections was mostly affected by the Confederacy, which was completely different from erstwhile years. The turnout of as much as 74% was evidence in history, which negatively affected tiny parties. Additionally, society was profoundly polarized and focused on the fighting of the 2 largest groups. Most of the voters who first went to the polls did so by drawing an highly fierce fight between Law and Justice and the civilian Coalition. These fewer 100 1000 fresh voters went to vote for 1 or the another organization solely out of hate, as was seen in the campaigns of both groups that brought ridicule to the opposing party. Just mention the debate on 9 October, where Donald Tusk and Mateusz Morawiecki did not mention to the questions asked, but attacked each another with “Pinocchio” or “everyone on one, a band of redheads”. This seems primitive to us and resembles the image of “Idiocracy”, but the creation of a black and white planet has paid a lot for the mainstream parties. According to a poll by Ipsos Late poll, 30% of non-voters in erstwhile elections now supported the civilian Coalition and 20% the 3rd Road. Law and Justice gained less, only 15% of fresh people, but they retained almost 90% of their erstwhile voters.
The polarized society was given a deceptive impression of a zero-one conflict of the type: “you are with us or you are on the side of evil” with no place for an alternative; the Confederate, depending on the policy he spoke, was erstwhile a possible coalition of PiSu and another time a PO.
The Confederate, who has so far been considered the most right-wing world-viewed formation on the Polish political scene, alternatively of building its authenticity, was drawn into this game and tried to become like the biggest parties. She stopped preaching her most catchy demands about leaving the European Union, vassal politics towards Ukraine and sanitaryism. Instead, she besides promoted in Wipler's media the other narrative.
The mitigation strategy is doomed to failure, as the Confederation will never become a “cool” organization in public opinion, specified as Poland 2050. People with centre or leftist views will always choose 1 of the opposition parties. The Confederacy will not gain any additional votes, but will lose the support of the conservative electorate and will fall below the threshold.
Among another things, any of the votes went to the 3rd Way, which copied the Confederate's economical program (although after the election it is already slow withdrawing from it, the point of voluntary ZUSu changed to "a temporary break in the payment of contributions") and besides opposed mass immigration, while at the same time tapping into the alliance of full opposition, which allowed the media to be very favoured.
Unparalleled conflict against the Camera of Power
Another difficulty in acquiring a fresh electorate was media censorship. While the Confederate had to trust on social media, the ruling camp and the full opposition could number on tv stations with millions of hits.
Especially severe for the Confederacy was the absence of TVP, a station inactive enjoying considerable ratings (3.1 million viewers in August 2023). Under the law, the public broadcaster is obliged to supply reports on the time of submission of the political parties concerned. From the latest reports TVP for the second 4th of 2023 shows that the most time was devoted to PiS politicians and another power-friendly parties (80.38 percent). The PiS itself received over 73 percent of airtime for political parties. Politicians of Law and Justice received a full of 251 hours of 53 min and 49 sec of air time between April and June. In second place – after the Law and Justice – were representatives of the fresh Left (7.56 percent). The podium was closed by PSL representatives with a score of nearly 6.31%. They were afraid to compose 0 hours, 0 minutes, 0 seconds. Representatives of this formation did not appear on TVP in the first and second 4th of 2023. Last time have been reported on TVP in the 4th fourth of 2022.
This raises the question of breach of equal opportunities in elections. Public media should "execute the public mission by offering the full of society and its various parts, varied programmes characterised by pluralism, impartiality, balance and independence", and blindly served the Law and Justice.
Corvin and light pedophilia
The fact is that Korwin, being 1 of the most recognizable faces of Polish politics, seriously harmed the Confederacy with his controversial positions, on the basis of which many books could be written.
I have many friends who, after proceeding Korwin's statement, especially those about women, have given up supporting the Confederacy. There was no explanation for this formation that respective different parties operate, leaders cut off from his views, and Korwin himself has not been president of fresh Hope for a long time. They've been so disgusted by the full group. I think there could have been as many as tens of thousands in the country.
An example of Korwin-Mikke's deficiency of sense was the “Pandora Gate” scandal, which was publicized by fresh Year's Wardega. The discovery of crimes and violent behaviors of known influencers defining themselves as feminists and abortionists gave a pretext for a large run against the left and pseudoauthorities. Eventually, the Confederate became a victim due to Corwin. During a live broadcast on 1 of the social networks, the politician referred to the pedophile scandal among youtubers, explaining that “it is up to the teenager to decide whether they are mature and no substance whether she is 15.” In turn, the man – argued – has the right to make a mistake...
This isn't the first shocking excuse Corvin for pedophilia. The media drew another statements from years ago as “the age of consent should begin with the first menstruation. There are girls who are 12-13 years old and are completely mature. You can't blame anyone for confusing a 12-year-old with an 18-year-old."
It is impossible to realize the intent of Korwin-Mikke. The voters do not care if the girl is ready to breed, they want hard-core, solutions to migration problems, housing crisis and advanced taxes. Light pedophilia and watercolorists highways are no longer of interest to anyone.
Another pre-election shot at the ft was to attend a gathering of the Patriarchat Foundation, where specified words were said: "Women were part of a household, though having a higher position than inventory or movable possessions, but nevertheless not participating on equal rights in decision-making processes". Which prominent politician appears at specified a conference? Didn't Korwin see who would talk there and what they would represent? The average Pole has an thought of the Confederacy as a misogynist party, feeding opinions with further controversies can only bring an even greater prey to this formation.
Fortunately, voters decided and the politician did not re-enter the parliament. Although he was “one” on the list, he received only 10 1000 votes. By comparison, in the 2019 parliamentary election he received over 60,000 votes, as many as 6 times more. Corvina overtook Karina Bosak from second place, not campaigning due to her pregnancy. The announcement of this situation was the presidential primary, where another candidates from the KORwin organization received higher results at provincial conventions than the leader himself.
A fewer days later, on October 18, the chief of election staff Witold Tumanowicz reported that the organization court excluded Janusz Korwin-Mikke from the Leaders' Council and suspended him in associate rights.
It is simply a pity that specified steps were taken only now, but fears of possible consequences were understandable. erstwhile Korwin was stripped of his presidency in his earlier co-founded parties, he left and assumed fresh ones, so was the case with the Union of Real Politics or the legislature of the fresh Right.
Problemary candidates and moving towards the center
It would be a mistake to say that a negative opinion about the Confederation is due only to 1 man, it is the effect of accepting untested candidates for a long time. The organization clearly lacks professionalism in this area.
Natalia Jabłońska of Gniezno, who caused controversy with her reaction to ban the slaughter of dogs and trade in their meats from 1986, goes at first glance. In her Twitter entry, she stated that specified a ban is unnecessary due to the fact that "meat is meat".
Even then, a wave of hatred fell on the candidate, but she was not motivated to reflect, but on the contrary, encouraged to give an interview to “Gazeta Wyborcza”. In a conversation with the journal, she stated that she would never personally eat a dog, but did not mention straight to the issue of the ban itself. Jabłońska was fined off the list, but the net has already been electrified by the information that the Confederacy is insisting on eating dogs, and leaders had to explain the insubordination of the policy.
Mr Dobromir Sosnier, who is inactive in the party, has the same attitude towards animals. In his opinion, animals are “machines made of meat... They feel no pain due to the fact that there is no interior observer in them who could feel this pain.” specified a subject could be raised in a philosophical diary or in an academic debate (a akin opinion about animals was, for example, the celebrated philosopher Immanuel Kant), but not in the media and inactive during the campaign.
Examples of candidates weakening the image of the organization could be multiplied. This is, for example, Żaneta Nochowicz making available on her profile theories about flat earth and a carcinogenic 5G network. There is besides Jakub Banaś taken on letters due to his father's popularity, even though nothing is known about him himself about his views, attitude to abortion, immigration etc. Finally, Samuel Torkowska is known solely for undressing herself for CKM and having no political experience. It is hard to believe her conservative views by looking at her past, which she does not publically hide and regret. W film on TikTok She compared her session for a pornographic magazine to a play...
The same is actual of the way Przemysław Wipler enters the center. His statements about the worldview diverged importantly from the main line of the organization he publically criticized.
During interview For RMF FM Wipler radio, he said he was in favour of returning to the abortion compromise, or eugenic abortion. He besides stated that the Confederacy should not deal with cultural issues. He besides defended Joanna from Krakow arrested by the police for having illegal miscarriage drugs. The female later lied in the media that the reason for her arrest was for a pharmacological abortion.
"Police, as many times in akin cases, acted - mildly - indelicately, and I think it was besides illegal [...]. This is 1 of the areas where we are stuck all the time - that it is simply a militia, not a police”, Wipler commented.
In another conversation for the same radio, he stated that he had voted against Poland's accession to the Union and now regrets it due to the fact that "it would be bad for Poland to leave the Union at the moment"
Wipler is so no little harmful than Corvin. It may turn out that any Members under his influence will want to keep their seats and go towards a mythical centre, and any into a separate, ideological one, which will consequence in the end of the formation.
Already now, due to the Confederacy's departure from fundamental ideas as to how the approach to abortion, the Union and LGBT caused the well-known activist Konrad Smuniewski to leave the National Movement.
The slow adaptation of the Confederacy to the "band of four" was utilized by a fresh party, formed in 2021 by Poland There is 1 Rafała Piech; the group gathered as many as 351,000 votes, which translated into 1.65 percent of support. The organization uses the slogan “God, Family, Homeland”, it is hard to defend life from conception to natural death and points out that if cooperation with the EU is not beneficial for Poland, we should not keep membership at all costs. If the Confederacy had not denied its conservative views on which it had built the formation, present it would have enjoyed 600,000 fresh votes, not just 300,000. There are inactive many voters with conventional views, and they are not worth neglecting.
Too generational electorate
The Confederation is the only in Poland to be a generational party, focused mainly on the needs of young voters. In search of originality, she turned to a city-wide youth electorate, with which 1 can drink beer, but 1 usually does not go to elections, is the least mobilized. By CBOS tests The "hard" electorate of the Confederates, or those who, with 100% certainty, presume a vote for this formation, is only 1 5th of its supporters (21 percent). Only 50% of the Confederate electorate was certain to participate in the elections.
The older electorate failed to get not only due to media censorship and the bad image of the Confederate on television, but due to the discouragement of besides entertaining content. The policy of building support on the sitcom did not work out well for the Confederate, on 1 of the last tikto films Sławomir Mentzen explained that his chopper flights were cheaper than 1 PiSu picnic, and on 9 October he encouraged to compose "XD" on electoral cards and put photos on social media.
The president of the fresh Hope is much better placed on TikTok than in reality; this impression was strengthened after “Beers with Mentzen” in Poznań, where he invited Richard Petr to the stage, and later lost his initiative and lost the debate with the man from “Saint 6 Kings” and “Azorski Sea”. Mentzen was helpless in the face of simple questions about the liquidation of ZUS, until he yet lost his temper erstwhile he heard about Mentzen's alleged 5 and started shouting to Petr with lyrics from the movie "Boys Don't Cry". The head of the party, which according to the polls wanted to vote 10 percent of Poles, should not behave like this. Even Janusz Korwin-Mikke, who through his views was a “black sheep” in debates, frequently “massacrified” the lefts thanks to cold logic.
Summary
The most perfect electorate of the Confederate a fewer months before the election heard that he was expendable, due to the fact that the Confederate is now a cool, centred organization that counts on the votes of Julek and Oskars. The anti-system organization has rapidly changed its goal, which was completely insane and could not succeed.
This “TikTokow” electorate supported the Confederate for a short time due to the fact that he was not curious in politics, and no politician always went to drink beer with voters!
Such an image of coolness is hard to keep without media control. After an anti-campaign directed at the Confederacy and showing Corwin insisting on abolishing the age of consent or electoral rights for women and Dobromir Sosnier talking about eating "cool-born" dogs, they realized that voting for the Confederacy was a shame. Thus the centred electorate shortly before the election flew from the Confederate to the 3rd Road, among others, and anti-system voters stayed at home or voted for PJJ.
Damian Drozd
