Elections in Moldova: PAS again with independent majority

On 28 September, a parliamentary election was held in Moldova, in which the ruling pro-European Action organization and Solidarity organization (PAS) associated with president Maia Sandu won (more than 50% of the vote). The second place (24.2%) was the Pro-Russian Patriotic Election Block (BEP, which includes, among others, the Socialist organization of erstwhile president Igor Dodon), and the 3rd position was nominally pro-European, but led by politicians previously operating in Russia-related political bloc "Alternativa" (8%). The parliament besides received reluctant European integration Our organization (6.2%) related to Russia populist Renato Usatîi and conflicted with PAS, advocating unification with Romania Democracy at Home (PPDA, 5.62%). Turnout was 52.16%.

The success of the PAS – despite the unprecedented scale of Moscow's interference in the election run – will let the ongoing EU negotiations to continue, and implemented by the pro-Western camp since 2021 the country's improvement and deoligarchisation programme. The pro-Russian opposition will undoubtedly question the results of the vote and will effort anti-government demonstrations in the coming days. These can be utilized by the Kremlin to escalate tensions and origin riots.

Comment

• The consequence of the election is simply a immense success of PAS, which will keep a stand-alone majority in Parliament (55 seats for 101 Members). This will let the pro-European camp to proceed its accession negotiations with the EU since 2024 and give it time to proceed implementing the ambitious structural improvement programme, launched immediately after the organization took power in 2021 (in peculiar on judicial reform).
• It was possible for PAS to get the majority by itself thanks to the diaspora. Almost 280 000 Moldovans went to the polls outside the country, who gave over 17% of the full vote – the most in the past of parliamentary elections (in 2021 – 212.5 thousand). As many as 78.5% of the emigrants supported the ruling PAS, which means that more than 27% of all the votes it received came from representatives of the diaspora.
• The PAS has achieved an excellent consequence despite the apparent increase in the cost of surviving observed in the last term. It was primarily the consequence of Russia's actions related to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but it struck the image of the government and lowered its quotations. Since the camp took over the western rudders of the state gas prices for individual customers nearly quadrupled – from 4.5 to 16.74 leu (about 0.85 EUR) for 1 m³ – and tariffs on electricity – twice. This led to a extremist price increase (over the past 4 years by 67%) and a far-reaching pauperization of society. In 2024, the absolute poorness rate was as advanced as 33.6% and was 6.6 pp higher than in 2021.
• It clearly surprises the consequence obtained by PPDA. It is related to Romanian radicals from the National-Conservative Union for Romanian Unity (AUR) that the group recorded in the polls about 2–3% of support. It seems that his electoral success is due to AUR's support, which not only openly called for a vote on PPDA, but more importantly, according to press reports, helped him organize and conduct campaigns in social media (sharing his know-how and utilizing his own extended network of profiles and accounts). This unionist party, i.e. in favour of the fastest unification of Moldova and Romania, although programically pro-Western and pro-European, is also, like AUR, conservative and critical of the progressive currents and narratives present in the European discourse. It is besides found in an open conflict with PAS. PPDA activists accuse the rulers of, among another things, monopolizing the pro-European discourse, inefficiency, political persecution and even corruption (the leader of the group frequently referred to “PAS mafia”).
• Russia tried to influence Russia in an unprecedented way., which in fresh months was to allocate up to EUR 300 million. The Kremlin focused mainly on the information sphere – through the media and social networks, he argued that Sandu and her organization at Western command destruct relations with Moscow, supporting Kiev and modernizing the army, which violates the constitutional neutrality of the country and drags it into war. There were besides cyber attacks on infrastructure, including the servers of the Central Election Commission (without affecting the vote). Russia besides financially supported pro-Russian groups through a fugitive in Moscow from Moldova in 2019. 2 of them, comprising the BEP Republican organization "The Heart of Moldova" and the Independent organization "Big Moldova" were, among others, removed from the electoral lists a fewer days before the vote.
• The pro-Russian opposition may not recognise the result of the election. On Sunday, the BEP Dodon leader called on government opponents to participate in the demonstration in “defensive vote of voters”. The opposition argues that the PAS triumph was a consequence of deception and manipulation. He points out that the organization did not get an independent majority in the country (i.e. without diaspora votes), and accuses the authorities that these restricted the anticipation of voting for Moldovan citizens surviving in the separatist Transnistria (about 300,000 people) and in Russia (where only 2 electoral commissions were opened). At the same time, it recognises that the removal of 2 pro-Russian groups from the electoral lists was a political decision and had no legal basis. However, long-term and mass protests are not expected. On the another hand, there is simply a hazard that Russian-inspired provocations will happen during the demonstration opposition. On 28 September, the Moldovan police stopped 3 men's Transnistria-related force structures headed for Chisinau with pyrotechnic materials. A group of 74 people were besides arrested shortly before the elections, who were to undergo training in Serbia, including street fighting.
  

Chart. Preliminary Election Results

Source: Central Election Commission, pv.cec.md