What do the polls tell us about the upcoming October elections in the Czech Republic? Will Andrej Babiš return to power? What topics and scandals dominate political debate before the elections? What position will the Czech Republic take on Ukraine, NATO and safety under the fresh cabinet? Leszek Jażdżewski talks to Martin Ehl, writer and author, reporter of the Czech economical paper "Hospodářské noviny" (hn.cz) from 2001; from January 2006 to June 2018, editor-in-chief of the global department, presently the chief analyst. Earlier, since 1992, he has worked in various Czech written media. He is besides a elder investigator at Visegrad Insight (visegradinsight.eu) and a associate of the European Council of abroad Relations (ECFR). It mainly deals with issues related to Central Europe, transatlantic relations, safety issues and defence and energy business.
Leszek Jażdżewski (LJ): Before discussing the current situation in the Czech Republic, let us look at the past elections. Members of the current ruling coalition (Solo, led by the current Prime Minister Petra Fiala) were not favorites in the polls, but managed to safe a victory, which seemed alternatively amazing at the time. What happened 4 years ago, and what parties are now made up of the ruling coalition?
Martin Ehl (ME): It's a beautiful long story. 4 years ago, it was more about anti-populist sentiments and directed against Babiš than it is now. There was a immense will to fight to defeat Andrei Babiš and his movement, the ANO party, which led to the creation of a united front and the feeling that there could be a fresh beginning for Czech politics after Babiš.
In addition, there was no crucial difference in the polls between the leader – which he was then, as at present, Babiš with the ANO organization – and the second in a series of the Spolu alliance, consisting of 3 parties. The main organization was the Civic Democratic organization (ODS), a conventional conservative party. Then there was the TOP 09 party, which is tiny and most likely more pro-European – which is the main difference compared to the ODS, which is the Eurosceptic organization tradition. The 3rd organization was Christian Democrats, the KDU-ČSL party.
These last 2 tiny parties would most likely not be able to exceed the 5% electoral threshold – neither 4 years ago nor now – so formed a coalition, alternatively conservative, to show unity against Babiš. That's precisely what they're trying to do now.
However, the situation is different now besides for 2 another parties, which were part of the erstwhile government, which is now coming to an end. These 2 parties are the STAN (the movement of mayors and independents, which is simply a liberal and pro-European party) and the Pirate organization (which at the time was more liberal and oriented towards the younger generation). These 2 parties besides formed a joint coalition 4 years ago.
This means that at that time there were 2 opposition coalitions against Babiš – 1 more conservative, the another more liberal, and the subject that combined them was the slogan “Everyone against Babiš!”. On this basis, 4 years ago, this coalition was formed. Ultimately, it was a coalition of 5 parties, and coalitions of this size are hard to manage due to various conflicts and various interests within them.
Over the last 4 years, 1 organization (Pirates) has left the coalition due to the fact that its minister (who was besides the party's chief) had difficulty reforming 1 of the key registers in the digital sphere of the state, namely the building register. The party, which had previously portrayed itself as a young and digital-oriented party, was incapable to implement a single successful programme in this area. 2 years ago, it was a large disaster for the government. As a result, they left the government coalition, which is now a four-party coalition – inactive holding the majority in parliament.
The 3 above mentioned parties (Citizen Democratic Party, Christian Democrats and TOP 09) enter October elections as a coalition of the Spol, and then is the organization of the STAN and the Pirate Party. This is the situation on the part of the government present compared to what has happened in the last 4 years.
Of course, now, as a ruling group, politicians with much more vulnerability to which. They were not very successful in implementing the various reforms and promises they made 4 years ago. This besides has a crucial impact on their popularity, as they are now far behind more than 4 years ago.
LJ: What are the main directions of ANO organization attacks on the Spol and the governing coalition? Or have people forgotten about ANO and Andrej Babiš? Will Babiš return to power? And if so, in what capacity?
ME: The Czechs are tired. Basically, they realize that Babiš has taken the chance to collect money from the EU, but they do not care at the minute due to the fact that it has been besides long. For Babiš, this is just 1 of the things he can say: “Look, they politicize the full thing, and I did nothing wrong.” However, this is not an crucial issue for his constituents.
Others are tired of this due to the fact that courts were incapable to accomplish the expected results. This kind of behaviour is known to another post-communist societies, due to the fact that sometimes it pays far more to bypass the strategy and usage it for its own purposes than to work hard and follow the rules. Babiš is an opportunist – he only does what he thinks is beneficial to himself at the moment.
Regarding the main direction of the attacks, the current government was incapable to supply what people consider crucial in everyday life. There was advanced inflation, and any reforms in the field of business and the digitalisation of the state were promised – and the second was completely corrupted. All of this means that it is hard for an average voter to associate this government with anything positive.
Meanwhile, the ruling parties play a safety or defence card and claim to be successful in supporting Ukraine. However, this is of no importance to the average citizens, due to the fact that unlike for example Poland, another countries do not feel straight threatened by Russia. Therefore, it seems alternatively to usage the subject of support for refugees from Ukraine as a tool against the government – due to the fact that not only Babiš, but besides more extremist parties say: "Well, you give money to others alternatively of the Czech Republic". This is almost a mantra of government critics – you do not support our citizens, you support others. This can then be utilized for a number of another topics – from social support to housing crisis. This is simply a very crucial issue in the Czech Republic. For many people, inflation is simply a subject that the government has not dealt with at all, especially in large cities.
Babiš uses various problems and scandals very skillfully for his own benefit. Recently, we had a large bitcoin scandal, but there was not 1 large scandal, only many insignificant mistakes made by ministers from the ruling coalition that Babiš uses on social media (on Instagram and TikToku). It besides focuses on young voters, which may seem surprising. Of course, not only Babiš, but besides any extremist parties usage specified strategies to attract fresh voters – and mostly young voters. If we look at the run running, it can be seen that Babiš is most likely utilizing much more money than it is allowed for his campaign, but can not be proven. Nevertheless, his squad seems highly qualified and uses all available political techniques and tools to research various possibilities.
In the end, Babiš can win the election, but decide not to become Prime Minister. The realistic option is to direct the country from the rear seat, with the prime minister figure alternatively of Andrej Babiš. This is simply a very likely script due to the fact that Babiš is no longer the youngest. He likes power, but he can have it without all the boring duties associated with acting as Prime Minister.
Finally, if we look at numbers and trends, the ANO presently has more than 30% of support, and this support continues to grow. This increase is due to the support for possible coalition partners, which are the extremist organization Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), the nationalist, isolationist Eurosceptic party, which presently has 11% of the support (down from erstwhile 13%). This trend so shows a decline in support for the SPD and an increase in support for Babiš.
The same happens to the Stačilo group! ("Enough!"), which is an umbrella for communists and any social democrats, their support besides falls. In fact, it was on a akin level as before erstwhile it was about 7%. Let us remind that there is simply a 5% electoral threshold in the Czech Republic.
Therefore, everything will depend on how many specified extremist parties will exceed the 5% threshold, due to the fact that we have another extremist organization that can do this – the right-wing Driver Party, which is attractive to young, little educated voters voting for the first time. During the European elections, they succeeded in bringing 2 Members into parliament and utilized this as an uplifting wave. However, support for this organization has now fallen below 4%.
Three conservative parties presently have over 20% of support, and their ratings are increasing somewhat, which is amazing due to the scandal associated with bitcoin. European Liberals, who are now part of the governing coalition, are 3rd or 4th in the polls. The 5th place is taken by the Pirates with an 8-9% score (in fresh polls their listings fell slightly). Therefore, from a purely mathematical point of view, the current government would not be a ruling coalition due to the fact that it would not be able to get the majority.
Babiš would gain far more than 100 seats in the lower chamber. We have 200 deputies, so it takes 101 seats to get the majority. However, as I mentioned, Babiš captures voters from 2 extremist parties who, of course, would like to regulation and impose solutions specified as a referendum on NATO and the EU. However, it would most likely be besides much for Babiš.
Over the past fewer weeks, there has been widespread speculation in the political circles that possibly a more realistic solution for Babiš would be to avoid ties to these extremists. Of course, it would be easy for him to make a number government that could number on their support on any issues. It is besides possible that after losing the election in the ODS organization there will be a divided in this conservative party. This part of the ODS would support a large coalition with Babiš due to the large threat from the East, showing that we request to be united so that they can make a good communicative around it and someway share power.
However, this is unacceptable to the current ODS leader, Prime Minister Petra Fiala, who late made an authoritative agreement with another major ruling party, the STAN, on a place on the list, provided they do not enter the coalition with Babiš.
Interestingly, it was besides speculated that in the name of democracy and safety they would form 1 large coalition. This could lead to many different scenarios. The most likely thing at the minute is that Babiš will go with extremists – a number or a majority – but it would be a dangerous decision for him.
LJ: Will the pro-Western pro-Ukrainian course of the Czech government change? What kind of government will be created? Should we anticipate a full return of the populist policy we remember 4 years ago?
ME: To answer that question, I would look at Slovakia and Hungary due to the fact that we are not them and the situation here is different, as many of our institutions work differently. We have a second chamber that is in the hands of the current ruling coalition. We have independent courts and media, but the fresh government will most likely look like what we are presently seeing in Hungary and Slovakia in relation to Ukraine.
On the another hand, Czech companies make good money, so I would not put the Czech Republic in 1 bag with Slovakia and Hungary until they prove that they are heading in this direction.
Nothing is certain until people vote. In general, public media people are afraid that the fresh authorities will make their own public tv and public radio, and will then regulation them and limit them as Slovak or Hungarian. Nevertheless, we inactive have very strong independent media, which is simply a problem in Hungary and Slovakia. There will so be certain nuances and differences in this area. Therefore, although it may look the same from abroad, there are many aspects that hopefully will disagree from 1 another. I hope I'm right.
Podcast is besides available on platforms Sound, Apple Podcast, Stitcher and Spotify
Dr. Olga Łabendowicz translated from English
Read English at 4liberty.eu
