Parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic: Babiš close to returning to power

The formation of ANO oligarchy and erstwhile Prime Minister Andrei Babiš is simply a strong favourite of the elections to the Chamber of Members of the Czech Republic scheduled for October 3 and 4. The coalition with the central function of this party, without which it will most likely not be possible to build a parliamentary majority, is likely to replace the centre-right office of Petra Fiala from the end of 2021. In the script of an alliance with utmost groups, specified a government will focus on national policy – among another things it will increase social spending. In abroad policy, ANO announces assertiveness towards Brussels while maintaining clearly pro-Western orientation. However, the Czech Republic is likely to retreat from the first series of struggling countries Ukraine, but they will keep kindness to her in the war against Russia.

Among the key factors influencing the final result of the election will be the ability of the centre-right organization to mobilise the erstwhile electorate, discouraged, among others, by breaking the promise not to rise taxes. These forces have not grown up larger competitors, and a large part of their supporters, though improbable to vote for the opposition, may stay at home on election day. Hence, the transfer of the camp of power focuses on their activation, and lyrics from billboards convince that in the election "it is going for everything".

International dimension

The upcoming elections to the Chamber of Members will decide whether the Czech Republic will stay in the vanguard for Ukraine and openness to refugees from this country. Prior to the full-scale invasion of Russia, the centre-right announced a tightening of the course towards the Kremlin, and after the war, Prague, together with Warsaw, was among the pioneers of sending tanks or storm helicopters to Kiev.^[1]. In addition, the authorities came up with the thought of a alleged ammunition initiative, in which they unite and coordinate the West's moves towards a more efficient transportation of artillery to the Ukrainian army.

At the same time, the presence of refugees there resulted in the largest number of refugees in the EU country per population (35 per 1000)^[2]. On the 1 hand, this strengthens awareness of the reality of war in a country not straight bordering on the conflict area, and on the other, it deepens tensions, e.g. in the real property market. This leads to seemingly contradictory results from polls on kindness to Ukraine and the Ukrainians: most citizens want to proceed accepting refugees and at the same time believe that their homeland has let them in more than they can^[3]. The Czech Republic is besides the EU associate State with the largest proportion of people reluctant to join Kiev in the EU (64%, 40% "strongly" opposed)^[4].

As a consequence of changing social sentiments, the issue of support for Ukraine and Ukrainians grew to be 1 of the central topics of the campaign. Ruler, referring to the Havl line of abroad policy^[5], stress that the Czech Republic is “on the right side”. They besides add that additional benefits in terms of contracts for local armed companies or prospects for participation of Czech entities in the reconstruction process of Ukraine must not be forgotten. Moreover, the tight labour marketplace has gained a fresh origin of labour from refugees.

In turn, the opposition argues that the state's efforts should be primarily directed at its Czech citizens. In a milder form, this is included in the polls (30.5-33%) of ANO, which accentuates the increase in social spending for the Czech Republic and, by the way, announces "zero tolerance for illegal migration". Its leader refers to the slogan “Americana First” – for a time he even wore a red cap modeled on Trumpian, though with the inscription “Strong Czech Republic”. In more harsh words, representatives of the far-right alliance launched from the Freedom and Direct Democracy organization list (SPD; 10–14% of support) say that "foreigners" will not be able to number on any benefits and that there will be a revision of residence permits for Ukrainians.

Contrary to the alarming speech of the camp ruling the abroad orientation of the Czech Republic after the election will not change fundamentalally, nevertheless the policy of Prague towards Russia and China will most likely become more passive. Members of the ANO with Babiš lead guarantee that the "red line" in the context of discussions with possible coalition partners is to accept the country's further membership of the EU and NATO. This is simply a signal for possible allies, i.e. the SPD party, calling for a referendum on staying in the Union, and an alliance under the leadership of the communists (Stačilo!, i.e. enough!; 6–9% in polls), who would besides like to ask citizens to proceed their presence in the North Atlantic Alliance. The erstwhile already prepares its voters for a step backwards, acknowledging that under the current conditions its postulate should be considered unrealistic – in addition to the political context (against the ANO), the request to adopt the alleged constitutional law for a referendum (more on the legal and constitutional context in the following part) stands in the way of its implementation. In order to increase the chances of joining the government, SPD activists even propose to exposure "experts" to ministers alternatively of their – controversial – activists.

The ANO's leading office is likely to reduce aid to Kiev, and in Brussels it will be more powerfully contesting mainstream policy. Babiš has criticised the ammunition initiative on respective occasions and advocated the implementation of the Czech interests – which is to guarantee a "pragmatic" abroad policy.

In that spirit, he even condemned the anti-Chinese gestures of the current ruling camp, which he considered unnecessary endangering the interests of national companies. He besides announced an increased emphasis on economical diplomacy. At the same time, although NATO has been identified as the key to the safety of the state in its party's electoral programme, the declaration "supporting diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine" could signal an approximation to the course of Budapest and Bratislava. akin terms usually service to water down efforts to aid Kiev.

Babiš' relation with Donald Trump, on which the Czech politician had long modeled and with whom he had hoped to mediate the ending of the Russian-Ukrainian War, can be described as ambiguous. Earlier, he even called himself a "trumpist", and now he is protesting the customs policy of the American president and swears that he would be able to convince him that the 5% of GDP he expects from the Alliance was a dream.

In the EU, the Czech Republic will be more powerfully opposed to the Green Deal and more powerfully highlighted migration issues. At the same time, the plans for reactivation of Visegrad cooperation presented by the erstwhile Prime Minister may prove ineffective in view of the progressive distribution of the political dimension of V4 and the deficiency of prospects to agree on delicate issues between its members (especially relations with Russia).

On the another hand, relations with neighbouring Slovakia (surviving 1 of the worst periods after the dissolution of the common state) and Hungary, governed by the same European political household Fidesz, should be improved.^[6]. It is possible that the fresh government will be inspired by any controversial national policies. The hazard of limiting the (currently rather large) autonomy of local public media from the planet of politics is simply a concern for the issues frequently rewinding in the Czech campaign. However, the strength of the institutions and civilian society there should be besides far reaching for the ambitions of the future ruling camp in this regard.

‘Bread and games’

The run was mostly dominated by social problems associated with a crucial increase in the cost of living. It was peculiarly felt in 2022, but besides a year later the purchasing power of wages decreased year-on-year in each quarter. At that time, the Fiala office waited for compensation in consequence to the increase in food and energy prices, and the solutions implemented at the end proved comparatively modest. Overall, the situation improved from 2024 to 2025, but is not symmetrical for different groups of employees. Trade unions reported, at least, a comparative impoverishment of a crucial proportion of budgetary staff. The crowning example is the school staff: between 2021 and 2024 teachers' salaries fell in relation to average salaries from 126 to 109%, and non-pedagogical staff of the institutions – from 69 to 63%.

As a result, each of the main opposition forces, including the left-liberal Czech Pirate organization (7–10% of support), which left the ruling coalition a year ago^[7] – at the very beginning of the electoral programme she placed demands related to raising the lives of citizens. Babiš has been repeating since 2022 how mantra thesis on "social government" and announces efforts to reduce food, energy or housing prices. In addition, he wants increases for teachers and non-pedagogical staff of schools, uniformed services and people employed in cultural institutions. He besides directs promises to pensioners – 1 of the most crucial groups of the ANO electorate: they will be able to number not only on the "fair valorisation" of pensions and thus their "decent" level, but besides on improving the availability of social services. These in their fifties have the chance to attract a retirement age simplification declaration to 65 years (the current government has voted on a mechanics for expanding it gradually, among others due to the ageing of the population) and broadening the scope of professions whose representatives can benefit from early retirement options. On the another hand, families are encouraged to vote for this organization by announcing higher kid allowances and the imagination of a state support strategy to pay mortgages to young families with children.

Housing besides plays an crucial function in another formation programs. Starting from Stačilo's letter! Social democrats have even coined the slogan "Citizens are our weapons" by which they criticize the excessive – according to them – focus of the current power camp on modernization of the army. The SPD intends to make cooperative housing and make the state's land available for its needs and simplify construction procedures. The implementation of the Act mitigating the tense situation in this area is 1 of the fundamental points of the Pirate Plan for the first 100 days after the election.

An highly large part of the run is the presence of amusement content – following the spread of fresh channels and forms of communication with voters. Often, they focus more on the attention of the audience than on conventional political communication, although this 1 can be smuggled through this road. Trend appointed Babiš here, who after the 2021 election (when he lost power despite the introduction of the lower number of MPs into the chamber) changed the political marketing advisers' team. As a result, the ANO activists – as the first politicians of the larger organization – massively appeared on the TikTok platform. This step aimed at building support in younger groups of society.

In 2021, only 13% of voters aged 18 to 34 and 15% of people aged 35 to 44 voted for the ANO (in both cases the list was the 3rd choice)47% in the 65+ segment^[8]. By the end of August 2025, this group was already the first choice in all age groups (in this youngest – among the people up to 29 AD – equal to the Alliance of the Pool (i.e. Together) – the core of the ruling coalition)^[9].

This trend includes circumstantial activity of leading organization representatives. She was (and most likely future) head of the finance department of Alena Schillerová dressed as a pack of fries to pay attention to the adverse changes made by the government to the working students. A leading economical organization expert, appointed by the leader of the “premier of the shadow cabinet” Karel Havlíček, frequently took part in the recordings of his regular activities in the company of his terrier – this served to warm the image of this vague policy and to buy in the favour of the Czechs, who considered themselves a “nation of dogs”. The leader of the ANO himself appeared with the mascot of a purple minion (as a symbol of the evil Prime Minister Fiala; the Czech word "fialový-/y" means "violet" or "applicable to Fiala") and posted many accounts of concerts on which he blended in or short material in a suggestive way proving that "for Babiš was better".

Other groups long resisted following this strategy, but seeing its successes, they began copying it. And so the SPD organization recorded a rhythmic reggae song, and this music accompanies its myths against the xenophobic worldview of the group. His chairman, like Argentine president Javier Milei, acted with a tool which he had symbolically presented unnecessary state spending (although he utilized a podcaster alternatively than a chain saw). The leader of the Pirates in a video designed to clear up housing problems abruptly appeared in the bed of a young couple. The president of the Social Democrats prepared a series of ASMR videos, on which she repeated the main slogans of the organization with a silent voice. Eventually, even Fiala, who had previously warned against Chinese threats, founded an account on TikToku. However, his surroundings convinced him that for safety reasons he was utilizing a separate telephone for this purpose.

Specificity of Czech elections and their crucial legal aspects

In the parliamentary-office strategy there, the majority in the Chamber of Members allows not only to form a government, but besides – regardless of the opposition of the president or of the advanced Chamber – to adopt average laws (i.e. not requiring peculiar resolutions). The opposition of the legislature may, in this case, reject by a majority of the statutory number of Members (i.e. 101 of 200), the same is actual – which clearly distinguishes the Czech Republic from Poland – with the veto of the head of state. A possible co-habitation of the cabinet based on the ANO and president Petr Pavl, more commonly associated with the current centre-right government, should not lead to legislative paralysis. This does not mean, however, that there will be no points in another fields – specified as the appointment of the Prime Minister, ministers or ambassadors.

At the same time, obtaining even a overwhelming advantage in the Chamber of Members is not adequate to carry out changes in constitutional order, which is to defend the strategy from extremist transformations. In order to amend the basic law or 1 of the alleged constitutional laws (for example, the EU accession referendum or the regulation of border issues in the past), the 2 chambers of parliament must adopt fresh provisions in a consistent manner, in any case by a qualified majority of 3 fifths of the statutory number of Members and Senators respectively. This process is so much more dependent on the composition of the legislature than in the Polish Republic, where consent to change the constitution requires only an absolute majority of votes.

The control of the advanced Chamber by the ruling centre-right (60 out of 81 mandates) and the gradual exchange of its composition (one 3rd all 2 years; next year's elections) mean that utmost parties, calling for a referendum on EU or NATO withdrawal, are incapable to keep specified a promise. Apart from the deficiency of consent of the ANO, which would be the largest subject of a possible coalition, they are not favoured by the situation in the Senate, where the majority essential for the adoption of the Constitutional Act is needed. The organization structure of this Chamber will not change much quickly, and the existing majority selection strategy facilitates the elimination of extremist candidates. The opposition of the legislature may not be dismissed in respect of laws amending electoral ordination.

A problem in the public debate the last weeks before the elections are the rules for starting the organization coalition. Formally, specified alliances do not apply the basic threshold (5%), but higher – 8% for 2 forces and 11% for 3 and more. On the another hand, it is common practice to start a group block without specified a declaration, which no longer gives emergence to the request to rise this bar. These values were established in 2021 erstwhile it was besides introduced into the first phase of the conversion of votes into mandates of the alleged Imperial formula, powerfully promoting larger formations.

The only case where a list will gotta cross a higher threshold on a country-wide basis (in peculiar 11%) concerns the government's Social Alliance. It includes the right-wing Citizen Democratic organization (ODS) of Fiali, liberal TOP 09 and chadeks from KDU-ČSL. It was first tied up before the 2021 elections, and now it protects against losing votes of smaller ODS partners, against announcing a re-starting joint seldom able to number on poll support exceeding 5%. The pool does not hazard much here – it presently has a 20% score. This, on the another hand, represents a marked deterioration in the ratio to over 27% of votes obtained 4 years ago.

The controversies associated with the launch of more entities on the lists eligible for the basic threshold concern the SPD lists, on which another parties of the far right (Tricolora, PRO and Svobodní) are besides present, Stačilo! (where, in addition to communists, we will find leading social democratic politicians and representatives of smaller formations, e.g. Moradians) and the Czech Pirate organization (who utilized Green). The courts of the state frequently questioned specified an approach but rejected requests for annulment of the letter. They claimed that specified a step would mean excessive interference by the judiciary in the electoral process. They besides cited an earlier practice, tolerating alleged hidden coalitions. Thus, as a coalition, only specified an alliance is yet treated, which in this way formally classifies itself. However, a possible recovery of the case may inactive be made by the Constitutional Court – it is to deal with complaints related to specified alliances shortly before or shortly after the elections.

A separate legal issue that may influence the form of power after the election concerns a possible problem with appointing Babiš as head of government, and this is due to a conflict of interest. It owns a powerful Agrofert holding company, operating, among others, in agri-food, chemical and forestry industries. The companies of the company collect state or EU grants and participate in public procurement tenders. In the past, this led to a government crisis which resulted in policy leaving Bohuslav Sobotka (ANO, however, remained part of it), and besides generated disputes with the European Commission in spring 2017.^[10].

Although the Czech law on conflict of interests has gradually been tightened up in fresh years due to Babiš, the oligarchs managed to exploit the gaps that existed there – he prescribed for a certain time his assets to trust funds (over which he in practice exercised control through their management close to them). The government has succeeded in full implementing only provisions preventing simultaneous media supervision and political activity, but they no longer constitute an obstacle to the head of the ANO, who has already sold shares in this area. However, these media stay favorable to him, and they are controlled by a chemical businessman who besides acquired assets from Agrofert from the area.

Czech constitutional law specialists are divided as to whether the president could refuse to appoint Babiš. The majority believe that if they are a candidate for the majority of Members, this should not happen. Firstly, the Act refers to a 30-day period from the time erstwhile the business should be completed. Secondly, the conflict of interests rules mention only the conduct of that activity and the sitting on the boards of companies and not the holding of shares. However, any lawyers let the deficiency of appointment as a form of prevention of conflicts of interest.

Problems for the head of the ANO may besides carry the position of the accused, and possibly besides convicted in the 2015 alleged Stork case. It concerns the extortion of measures for tiny and medium-sized enterprises to build a conference and leisure facility. The last return in this procedure was in June 2025 erstwhile the Prague Court of Appeal annulled the acquittal judgement of the lower court (a akin conviction of the second had previously withdrawn the lawyer General). At the same time, the court of the city is bound by the legal interpretation, which will now decide again, which means that unless there is fresh evidence, there is simply a advanced likelihood of conviction. However, the decision will most likely be made a fewer weeks after the election, and the defendant's status, and even the conviction formally do not stand in the way of a nomination (ex-President Miloš Zeman famously stated that he would appoint the head of the winning organization as Prime Minister even if he was holding a prison sentence). In order for the proceedings to continue, the lower chamber will gotta vote on the repeal of Babiš's parliamentary immunity (for the 4th time). At the same time, the ongoing trial and the issue of conflict of interest can service Pavl as an argument to get the leader of the ANO to present another character from the ranks of his formation.

Perspectives

Electoral models based on the latest polls indicate that the creation of a majority ruling coalition without ANO will actually be impossible (see Figure 2). At the same time, Babiš's preferred one-party arrangement, which appeared to be possible even a year ago (due to divisions and weaker competitors' ratings), present it is hard to imagine. It is not just the deficiency of an ally in the Prague Castle in the individual of Zeman, in the erstwhile tenure tolerating number ANO offices or with the key function of this party. More importantly, in all fresh opinion studies, the threshold exceeds not only the left-wing Stačilo coalition! and the clearly increasing Pirates, but besides – albeit somewhat – Eurosceptic Drivers for themselves (5–6%). In turn, the SPD was reinforced by an alliance with another entities. All of this makes 200 tickets likely to divide more and more stronger electoral lists. In this situation, the ANO can number on about 70 seats in the Chamber of Members. Her most apparent partner should be drivers for herself, with about 10 tickets.

From a wider group of possible coalitions, the leader of the ANO will most likely talk to the far right alliance under the aegis of the SPD (designed around 25 seats), but the success of these negotiations raises doubts. Although the latter's activists have already declared themselves ready for far-reaching compromises (including leaving their own presidents outside the government), but for Babiš, inactive late adopted by Emmanuel Macron and having many companies in Western Europe (including Germany), radicals are not a first choice partner.

The erstwhile Prime Minister has already in the past shared the rudders of the state with the allies of the Spolu chadeks, and in the past sent signals that he would be willing to accept the alliance with the ODS – now the largest force of the ruling coalition. At the same time, he exchanged the politicians of the camp of power with whom he understood well. Although they have now fallen out of the first ranks of their own formations, they can activate the intraparty opposition after the election. besides in liberal media, specified a solution can be considered as a "minor evil" in the context of possible approximation of ANO with utmost right and/or communists (the second can number on about 15 seats). In addition, Babiš's reported bad individual relations with the SPD leader Tomio Okamura and the uncertain stableness of the obtained majority talk against pacts with radicals. It seems very likely that with difficulty the alliances of groups fighting for a akin electorate – Stačilo! and the list of SPD – will sooner or later disintegrate according to the actual organization affiliation.

An alliance with utmost forces – which is presently the most realistic – would point to the intention of focusing on national politics and turning to the course chosen by Budapest or Bratislava. At the same time, it would let this camp to implement not only an ambitious social spending programme (which would block the right), but besides the proposed reforms to destruct public media independency in practice (which would give fuel to criticism from Brussels). The argument of individual nature for Babiš and Okamura may be to prosecute detention of pending criminal proceedings – the Chamber of Members must each time decide to waive immunity and may disagree on specified a step. Meanwhile, the head of the SPD is threatened by 3 years of imprisonment in connection with a controversial billboard run that, according to investigators, can be classified as inciting to hate.

An alliance with part of the ruling centreright would propose focusing on the fight against long-term improvement challenges over organization divisions, while at the same time fostering greater stableness in national and abroad policies. However, specified a step would pose a major problem for the credibility of the partner, building his communicative to a large degree on informing of the consequences of any Babiš rule. In this oligarch optics, whose conflict of interest and problems with the law are constantly publicised there, poses a systemic threat to the smooth functioning of the democratic state.

The completion of the ‘anti-Babyšowa’ coalition renewal script from the end of 2021 (Spolu, Stan, Pirates) is presently improbable due to insufficient support for its groupings, together with 80-90 mandates. At the same time, in the case of the TAN party's local government policy (10-12.6% of support) we are talking about the electorate with the largest share of voters allowing change of decision (43%, with 12% of ANOs)^[11].

An additional problem would be the friction between the ODS and the Pirates, which contributed to leaving the second ruling coalition. In favour of these formations, there may be an incidental with Russian drones over the territory of Poland, which makes the government's communicative credible about the request to increase military spending and threat from the Kremlin. Prime Minister Fiala stressed that 1 of the machines had fallen only 200 km from Ostrava, and Prague sent a chopper unit to aid patrol the east border of Poland.

Table. Key players of the organization scene and support for them

Source: own development.

Figure 1. Results of fresh pre-election polls

Source: fresh survey results or election models of STEM, Median, NMS marketplace Research,Ipsos and Kantar.

Figure 2. possible post-election coalitions

Source: Own improvement based on estimates of the allocation of seats from the STEM electoral model (published 14 September).