- At 8 p.m. (6 in Poland) in Belarus the main day of the voting government began, in which the ruling Alexander Lukashenko intends to scope for the seventh word of government. The opposition calls it a "non-election" vote or "non-choice" vote – due to the fact that it has no real opponents nor a chance of a democratic process
- The east Studies Centre expert Kamil Kłysiński pointed out that on Monday after the “non-election”, as a consequence of which Lukashenko would become president of Belarus for the 7th time, he would inactive have the same problems and dilemmas, specified as: Russian dominance in safety and military matters and in abroad trade
- In his opinion, in relation to Poland, “it is to be expected to continue: disinformation, provocation, deficiency of will to dialogue, accusations and slanders in the propaganda of Belarus, anti-Polish historical policy, in which Poland grows up to be the main enemy, strikes against the Polish number and the Catholic Church in Belarus
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In relation to Poland, “the continuation of: disinformation, provocation, deficiency of will to dialogue, accusations and slanders in the propaganda of Belarus, anti-Polish historical policy, in which Poland grows up to be the main enemy, strikes at the Polish number and the Catholic Church in Belarus, which is inactive mostly based on priests from Poland or Polish-speaking priests from Belarus of Polish origin. You can besides anticipate to hit Polish schools, acts of vandalism towards cemeteries, burial sites and memorial sites. Of course besides the migration crisis" – Kłysiński calculated.
As he stressed, the most crucial institutions that carried the pillars of Polish number education in Belarus — advanced schools in Wołkowysk and Grodno, built from the Polish state funds inactive in the 1990s — were taken over by the Belarusian authorities and carry out the educational mission only in Russian and somewhat in Belarusian.
Kłysiński pointed out that social and private schools, specified as Grodno advanced School, led by the Polish School Macierz in Belarus, were liquidated. Many private companies that taught Polish language courses ceased to be or changed their business profile so as not to hazard it.
— The president of the Union of Poles in Belarus Andelika Boris tries to implement any educational projects, but this is truly very modest compared to what was, very controlled by the authorities and limited, he said.
The case of Andrew Pochobut. “It would be a sign of disloyalty for Moscow”
Klysiński found the subject very difficult The case of Andrzej Pochobut, which holds 8 years in prison in the Belarusian penal colony. Polish authorities are making efforts to free him, but Lukashenko “behaves as if he does not want to do so.”
— He says he'd be willing to release him, but at the same time he's dealing with complete misinformation. In fresh days, he said that nobody in Poland wants Pochobuta, and Pochobuta himself does not want to leave. This is not true. Last year, he declared himself willing to leave, only the authorities wouldn't let him go. Andelice Boris, who saw him at the time in prison, said this," the expert said.
In his opinion, even if Lukashenko wanted to release Pochobut, he could not very much do so in the current situation, due to the fact that for Moscow it would “be a signal that he is beginning a game with Poland, and that would already be a sign of disloyalty.”
"Not-Elections" in Belarus. ‘There is no area for manoeuvre’
Kłysiński noted that on Monday after the "non-elections", as a consequence of which Lukashenko would become president of Belarus for the 7th time, he would inactive have the same problems and dilemmas, specified as: Russian dominance in matters of safety and military and abroad trade, "non-existent relations with the West", "a disguised abroad policy in non-European directions", the political and social crisis in Belarus, as well as economical problems related to exports or unprofitable parts of the economy.
“ Belarus has no area for manoeuvre. There is no dialog with the West, non-European directions may add any flicher or colour of Belarusian abroad policy, but they will not solve the situation. Russia will proceed to be a key partner. It is the only window in the planet for Belarusian exports – 70% of exports are on the Russian market, and an additional 20% are transit through Russia. Even if we are talking about patterns of circumvention, Russia is essential so there is no way out of this situation. Lukashenko went to this corner on his own," said Kłysiński.
According to him, the only option that the Belarusian dictator has is to preserve what he inactive has, that is, the formal independency of the state or the comparative "omnipotence on interior issues".
— Repressions lead alone, but if he wanted to reduce them abruptly and, for example, release all political prisoners, he would gotta explain himself in Moscow. “Klysiński stressed.
He does not see the anticipation of changing Belarus' abroad policy. In his opinion, there may be a change in rhetoric, the appearance of certain actions, the proposition of liberalisation, e.g. in the context of Ukraine's peace talks, as long as they begin, due to the fact that Lukashenko fears that he could be excluded from talks, and he dreams of being a peace broker.
— He could, of course, afford, in close consultation with Moscow, a certain game, for example, to release more political prisoners, so that the West would consider him a individual who could participate in peace talks. specified a game is possible, but it will inactive be just a game, not a real will to change. Lukashenko, erstwhile it comes to dialogue, is simply a finished project, said the expert.
The expert talks about the problem of succession. ‘Fears Number 2’
According to Kłysiński, the main challenge facing Lukashenko in interior policy is the problem of succession. So far, he has failed to “program” an efficient mechanics for transferring power.
He noted that Lukashenko, like any dictator, fears “number 2” and strong personalities in his surroundings. He always disposed of people with ambitions around him, as illustrated by a series of kidnappings and mysterious disappearances of people from around Lukashenko, who, in his view, may have threatened him most.
— He is simply a dangerous dictator who defends himself to the very end, but at the end of his life it turns against him, due to the fact that he is unable, in his head of the hostage to power, to make an effective mechanics of succession that would stabilize the strategy and give full guarantees to his family," said the expert.
He reminded me that Lukashenko has 3 adult sons, but he never let them grow up politically and prepare them to take his place.
— What's right now is an invitation to chaos and a fight under the carpet. Of course, they will enter the action of the actuator, Russia will be very strong in this game, but it is not said who will lead the state. This subject will become more sharp as Lukashenko's wellness deteriorates," Kłysiński said.
