An intensive US and Israeli operation is underway to destruct Iran's military potential. However, despite their clear military advantage, Tehran has not been deprived of its ability to retaliate and effectively attacks critical infrastructure and global trade routes. The fresh component is Iran's long-range strike attempts and the support of Ukrainian experts to the US in defence of the drones.
B-1 Air Force Bomber USA charges bombs, March 16, 2026 (Ben Birchall / PA Images / Forum)
A key component in the current phase wars remains an extended American air-sea operation. The U.S. Command informs of more than 9,000 targets – from rocket and production facilities to sea units (more than 140 ships and boats). The scale of the operation indicates a systematic effort to destruct Iran's military and industrial potential.
This is complemented by the massive air run of Israel. In fresh days the impact has mainly included the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps (IRGC), rocket production facilities and intelligence facilities. According to Israeli website data, more than 200 attacks happen in 1 day, and the full number of destroyed or damaged ballistic rocket launchers are expected to scope about 330 of the 470 held by Iran.
Despite this intensity, no strategical breakthrough can be seen. Iran inactive has the capacity to carry out retaliatory activities and its state structures are functioning.
Brave attack on the rear
Tehran has consistently pursued an asymmetrical strategy. He does not effort to compete with the air advantage of the US and Israel. Instead, it hits where the cost of the opponent's consequence is highest – critical infrastructure, urban centres and global transport routes. The comparatively inexpensive and hard to combat, drones and rockets, play a major role.
Over the last fewer decades, Iran has carried out further rocket strikes on Israel. Tel Aviv, Haifa and Jerusalem were attacked; any of the missiles breached the air defense, causing harm to infrastructure and injuring the population. At the same time, Tehran strikes targets in the Gulf States, attacks US infrastructure and military installations in the region.
The fresh and peculiarly worrying component of escalation is the thread Diego Garcia military base. According to reports from the last twelve hours, Iran was to effort to hit this base – a key U.S. logistics hub in the Indian Ocean, used, among others, for air operations and support operations in the mediate East. A long-range attack was active – most likely rockets.
The available information is limited and partially contradictory, but indicates that the attack did not bring crucial losses. According to U.S. sources, the defence of the base was placed on advanced alert and the threat was intercepted or failed to scope its target. However, the very fact of the effort is crucial: it means that Iran is investigating the anticipation of destroying targets respective 1000 kilometres distant and signaling readiness to hit the US strategical facilities.
Blocked Strait
A key component in the current war phase remains situation in the Strait of Ormuz. Iran has actually limited shipping through this strategical route, which usually flows around 20% of the world's oil trade. According to maritime traffic monitoring companies, the number of tankers crossings has fallen by about 30–40% in fresh days compared to the average from the beginning of the month. any shipowners hold off their flights, another units are waiting outside the Persian Gulf for the improvement of the situation, and transport insurance costs are expanding rapidly.
Tehran works multi-track. The Iranian Navy and the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps increased their presence in the Strait area, operating small, fast units and conducting controls against selected ships. According to U.S. information, Iran has deployed seamines and signalled readiness for further escalation, including attacks on commercial units, and attempts to effectively block water tracks.
The United States maintains a permanent presence of naval forces in the region, primarily concentrated around 5 Fleet with a base in Bahrain. Air patrol strength has been increased in fresh days, although there is no confirmed information about the introduction of a full-scale convoy escort system. There are many indications that Washington is trying to keep freedom of navigation at the same time and to avoid a step that would mean an open sea confrontation with Iran.
The Indian ship Shivalik for the transport of liquefied natural gas (LPG) arrives at the port of Mundra through the Strait of Ormuz, 16 March 2026 (Amit Dave / Reuters / Forum)
Oil shock
In fresh days, a fresh dimension of the conflict has clearly emerged, in which energy becomes a battlefield and a tool of political pressure. The United States has decided to halt strikes at Iranian power installations for 5 days while continuing its attacks on military targets. This decision coincided with Donald Trump's declarations of "productive talks" with Iran.
At the same time, Tehran denies that any negotiations should take place, identifying American communications as manipulation. This creates a image of information chaos, in which it is hard to find whether we are dealing with real attempts to talk, or whether we are dealing with marketplace and public opinion.
It cannot be excluded that contacts take place indirectly with 3rd countries. However, disinformation actions or an effort to make a political "track of exit" from the conflict are equally likely without actually limiting the armed action. In practice, military operations do not weaken.
Parallel war strikes the global energy system. Oil prices are again approaching $100 per barrel, and major disruptions have hit the gas market, especially LNG. Part of the export installation, including Qatar, was shut down for a long time after the Iranian drone attack. Head of the global Energy Agency Fatih Birol compares the scale of the current crisis to the combined effects of the oil shocks of the 1970s and the war in Ukraine.
Paratroopers ready?
There are reports in the media behind the ocean of mobilization of selected components of the US Armed Forces, primarily peculiar units and air-desanant troops. According to fresh days, the readiness of elements of peculiar forces operating in the region has been increased, as well as increased readiness of selected units 82nd Airborne Division and fast consequence forces. These movements include both the deployment of personnel and equipment as well as the preparation of logistics facilities at bases in the mediate East.
Such activities usually mean preparing for respective possible scenarios. The most apparent is to strengthen the protection of American installations and personnel in the region and to be ready to evacuate in the event of further escalation. peculiar forces can besides carry out reconnaissance activities and indicate targets for precision strikes, especially against mobile rocket launchers or command strategy components.
However, the directory of possible usage is wider. safety operations for delicate materials are involved, including possible attempts to take over or neutralise stocks of fissile materials and infrastructure related to Iran's atomic programme. This kind of action requires a component of peculiar forces and fast support of air-desanant troops.
Another option is limited operations to occupy selected sites or sites of strategical importance. These may be military installations, logistics nodes or islands and ports applicable for the control of maritime routes in the Gulf region. In this context, there is speculation about scenarios for taking control of selected points in coastal waters that could be utilized by Iran to disrupt shipping.
It is besides not possible to exclude operations of a ‘point entry’ nature, i.e. short-term seizure of the facility, performance of the task and withdrawal of forces. This option could affect hitting peculiarly crucial elements of military infrastructure that cannot be effectively destroyed solely from the air. All these scenarios combine one: they do not mean a large-scale classical land operation. Rather, the aim is to increase flexibility and prepare tools for rapid, limited intervention.
Ukrainian know-how
Finally, it is worth mentioning that there was a new, crucial actor – Ukrainian specialists from the fight against unmanned workers. According to reports from western media and military sources, tiny advisory and operational teams were directed to support Israel's air defence systems and selected US installations in the region. Their presence is not accidental due to the fact that Ukrainians present have the most applicable experience in combating mass drone attacks, captured during the war with Russia.
Their tasks include primarily the optimisation of layered defence against drones, which combines kinetics and radioelectronic combat. They besides support the integration of systems for detecting and neutralising low-flying targets and advise on how to manage the defence under conditions of massive attacks to prevent overload.
The information available shows that their experience is already working. In fresh days, the effectiveness of combating parts of Iranian drones, especially those slower and operating in swarms, has increased. The usage of Ukraine-tested mark selection procedures and the combination of disruptive measures with artillery and short-range rocket fire proved crucial.
The presence of Ukrainian specialists besides has a political and systemic dimension. It shows the transfer of experience from the war in Europe to the mediate East and the increasing function of Ukraine as a supplier of unique know-how in modern battlefields.
