War in Ukraine – Tactical Analysis 25.10

The Russians captured the Ukrainian fortress Avdeev with a powerful heap, from which a view of the full Avdeev region strengthened. Just weeks ago, a surprising, Russian Awdiejeński operation began. due to the information embargo and the deficiency of reliable information, I did not knowingly describe its course, which in many of you caused a deficiency of satisfaction and questioning.

Her extended description, which I am working on all the time, will shortly be published. However, a number of information has late been received in this photograph and movie that shows exchanges on this front stretch. As surely as my regular readers will not be surprised, they are fundamentally far from the communicative present in our media, and this is abstracting from the cut-outs of the narration issuer 72 Center for Information and intellectual Operations of the peculiar Forces of Ukraine, my “favorite” “Buddigan” that Onet published.

So what do we know?

On 10 September at dawn, the Russian “South” group commanded by General Sergei Kuzowlev, which undetectedly concentrated large force strikes, masking them in the millionth Donetsk and neighbouring Gorlovka, began a amazing strike to orbit Avdieevka fortress. Now, Avdieevka, it was a 30,000th industrial city in the mining territory of Donbas. In the city there is simply a gigantic russian coke oven combination.

Avdieevka is adjacent to the rebel million-dollar Donetsk. As of 2014, it was 1 of the key places from which the Ukrainian Armed Forces led the alleged Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) to choke the pro-Russian rebellion. That's where Donetsk was shot at. Ukrainians have built many fortifications in Awdievka since 2014, rightly fearing that it would be here that soldiers supported and armed by Russia, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, would strike. And then the Russian Army itself.

The Ukrainians built for 8 years in Awdijewiec and around, a thoughtful strategy of dense field fortifications, with combat shelters, artillery stations, minefields, engineering obstacles, tensed by modern electronic monitoring system. A number of apparent positions, false fortifications, hidden access roads including tunnels were built in Avdievka.

A large number of civilians were displaced from the city and multi-level concrete shelters were built under residential buildings, underground hospitals, weapons storage, supplies and ammunition. The settlements themselves were turned into fortified areas, with dense weapons positions in blocks and buildings. Ukrainians besides built dense fortifications, including multi-level command stations, underground barracks and ammunition and weapons warehouses, artillery tradition, shelters for armored vehicles and guns.

The Russian side on September 10 performed powerful artillery preparation, and made bombardments and headed for this Ukrainian “Maginota Line” is an attack. The thought of the Russian Avdeevsky attack operation is to circular the fortified city on 2 sides and cut off the communication lines. The unsupplyed Ukrainian fortress crew will capitulate, or what the Russians hope for, like the Nazi Wehrmacht in January 1945 threatened by the lap of the fortress Krakow, will retreat from the city. Is that what the Ukrainians in Avdievka will do now? hard to say.

I have attached maps to you, you can see how disadvantageous the front line is for defenders and how hard it is for Ukrainian soldiers to defend the city. Today, we know that despite the heavy, unquestionably documented by the Ukrainian website published films and photographs) , losses in people and armored equipment, Russian forces have achieved success both in the north and in the south of the “eccles” of the attack.

The Ukrainian Command, a week ago the episode visited General Walery Załużny – the Chief Commander of the Ukrainian Army, directed the reconnaissance to Avdieevka including the 1st Armoured Brigade and a mass of artillery. Ukrainians decided to halt the Russian attack and save the city. Russian troops, despite dense losses in equipment (there have been 150 armored vehicles destroyed) , hundreds of soldiers dead and thousands of wounded proceed to attack.

Defending himself in the fortifications of the Ukrainian garrison, he lost many positions, but retreats to another already prepared. Counter-contravention, rejected Russian troops on respective episodes. Not the Ukrainian garrison itself suffered dense losses, but the operational reconnaissances that were approaching the open area, which were severely affected by the customs fire of the Russian rocket artillery and as a consequence of bombings.

After the Ukrainian fiasco of the large spring summertime offensive, in accordance with Russian/Soviet war art, forces defending themselves, continually operating, went to controversy on a selected section of the front, here under Avdieevka. Like e.g. 80 years ago in the conflict of the Kursk Bow. The Russian Army, with its “backwards”, will most likely carry out offensive actions during the fall, as many roads let for efficient transportation of supplies, rotation and evacuation of the wounded.
Special Operations Command in Ukraine, late visited Vladimir Putin, in Russia's constitutional strategy the head of the armed forces and commander-in-chief. This shows the rank of the Avdievsky attack operation the Russians have given her.

In my opinion, we are dealing with another "battle to destroy" like last year's conflict of the City of Bachmut. As at the time, the Russian “gun meat” are erstwhile prisoners of the alleged “Zeki” (Z – the locked “ros”, – imprisoned). present these units are called Storm-Z. The Russians clearly do not number for losses, although the ongoing attack has strong artillery support, and unlike Bachmut, intensive aviation support. Just today, Russian aviation has glide bombs and has something to bomb (outside the Ukrainian OPL range) without endangering aircraft and crews to shoot down.

Taking into account the consequences of the bloody "measory" as described by the Russians, the "meat machine" that was the conflict of Bachmut for the Ukrainian Army, I personally find myself missing the defence of Awdieevka at all costs, and that is what the Ukrainian elites of the government from the bank are going to do. The Russians are set for success, the price does not play a role, so it is hard to presume that despite the losses which the Ukrainians inevitably origin to them, they will halt their attack at Avdieevka.

On the another hand, destroyed in the failed spring summertime offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they have limited possible to lead a material conflict for destruction, and specified was imposed by the Ukrainians commanding the Russian army General Walera Giersimov . For today, the consequence of the conflict is hard to determine, but it seems that more strengths are being gained by the invading Russian troops.

It is besides worth not losing sight of the general situation on the front, where fundamentally the Russian army went to the alleged active defence on many sections of the front and the Avdiejeńska operation is only an component of Russian operational assumptions, as part of the implementation of strategical objectives.

Krzysztof Podgórski