Winter War 2.0? – Threats and opportunities arising from the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO

ine.org.pl 1 year ago

Zdjęcie: Chińska polityka energetyczna (6)

Key information:

– After the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine 24.02.2022 Scandinavian countries not members of NATO felt threatened by possible Russian aggression.

– Sweden and Finland, before 24.02.2022, proudly emphasized their neutrality. For Finland, this was an component of political realism in order to keep a good relation with Russia.

– Finland and Sweden simultaneously applied for NATO membership on 18 May 2022. Finland became the 31st country of the alliance on 4 April 2023, and Sweden 32th country of the alliance became the 7 March 2024.

– Acces to NATO completely changes Finland's current safety doctrine. To date, this country has based its integrity of borders on neutrality. This was achieved through the improvement of cooperation with neutral Sweden as well.

– The Swedish arms manufacture produces highly effective and valued anti-tank measures among customers worldwide.

– In Finland and Sweden, compulsory enlistment is mandatory, Sweden introduced this strategy comparatively late – in 2018. In Finland, it has existed since the country regained its independency in 1917 and enjoys large public support.

– Thanks to Finland and Sweden's accession to the alliance, the Baltic Sea has become a geographically interior NATO basin. The island of Gotland besides plays a strategical role, which can become an extension of supply lines to the Baltic States in the event of the closure of the Suwałki gulf.

Finland and Sweden to NATO

The neutrality of Sweden dates back to the time of the legislature of Vienna and Napoleon, erstwhile Jean Baptiste Bernadotte – erstwhile Marshal of Napoleon, became King Charles XIV of John. Thanks to Sweden's neutrality policy, horror I and planet War II were avoided.

After the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine 24.02.2022 Scandinavian countries not members of NATO felt threatened by possible Russian aggression. past shows that it was wrong. Paulina Neuding, the writer "Svenska Dagbladet" noted that the first conclusion the Swedes made after the invasion is that NATO's position as an ally does not defend against Moscow's invasion, but only the provision of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Pact is able to supply greater safety guarantees. [1] In January 2022 only 34% of Swedes supported their country's accession to the Alliance, but in April it was already 47%.

Finland had already been the victim of an east neighbor's aggression once, in 1939, in a conflict later called the winter war. The Soviets issued the same ultimatum towards Finland as for the previously annexed Baltic states – signing the agreement to enter the Red Army. Finland was besides requested to decision the Finnish-Radziecka border by 25km to the northwest and to lease the Hanko peninsula for 30 years and to grant approval to build a military base there. Finland categorically refused, so the russian Union, through a set provocation, found a way to justify its military intervention. On November 30, 1939, an invasion took place. Already on 1 December, a Marianite Finnish Democratic Republic was established in occupied territories. Stalin did not anticipate much opposition from the tiny Finnish army, but thanks to the cognition of the area, the mobility of troops, e.g. skiing troops, the “motti” tactics of isolated and eliminated individual smaller russian troops, managed to inflict advanced losses on the Red Army. The Soviets suffered from chronic deficiency of supplies, including the clothes essential to fight in the winter climate. The armored vehicles of the Red Army were not as effective as they were expected to be, due to the terrain and Finns destroyed or seized vehicles utilizing improvised materials specified as Molotov cocktails (which were utilized for the first time at the time). Nevertheless, thanks to the vast resources, the Soviets managed to decision the front lines.

It is worth noting that Western Europe then supported Finland by providing military equipment. The main donors included France, the United Kingdom and Italy which were outraged by the unwarranted aggression of the USSR on a neutral country. The Chief French Command even prepared plans to send an expeditionary corps, but the plan was not implemented due to preparations for a conflict with Nazi Germany.

Finland defended its independency by inflicting tremendous losses on the Soviets, which amazed Europe as a whole. The Moscow Treaty ending the winter war, signed in March 1940, handed over the russian side 35 1000 square kilometers of territories, thus moving the Finnish-Soviet border further distant from Leningrad.

After planet War II, the russian Union forced Finland's restrictions in global and military politics, including the preservation of neutrality towards the USSR, this state was referred to as finlandization. This was a condition for the USSR not to interfere with Finland's interior policy.

Finland and Sweden simultaneously applied for NATO membership on 18 May 2022. Finland became the 31st country of the alliance on April 4, 2023. [2] The process of ratification of Sweden's accession stopped in October 2022, and Hungary and Turkey stood in the way. Turkey felt that Sweden favoured and indulged the Kurdish organizations, and a high-profile case of burning the Koran in Stockholm in 2023 was a shadow. In the case of Hungary, force was expected to be exerted to pay out frozen EU funds. On 27 March 2023, the Hungarian Parliament ratified the accession of Sweden, and not long later – 30 March – the Turkish Parliament did the same. Following the ratification of the accession treaty by Hungary and later the Swedish government's decision, Sweden became a 32 associate of NATO on 7 March 2024. The accession of Sweden to NATO is simply a break-up with the 200-year tradition of neutrality of this country, which has not been active in European conflicts since the Napoleonic era. [3]

The accession to NATO completely changes Finland's current safety doctrine. To date, the country has based its inviolability of borders on the basis of neutrality. This was achieved through the improvement of cooperation with besides neutral Sweden and compulsory military service maintaining a advanced percent of military training in the population. The shock caused by the Russian invasion changed the perceptions of the local elites, it turned out that the existing doctrine was not able to guarantee the safety of the country. This rapidly increased public support for Finland's accession to NATO from 24% in 2021 to 76% in May 2022. [4]

Defence potentials of Sweden and Finland

Military possible of Sweden

In 2024 Sweden will spend more than 2% of GDP on defence. According to Swedish diplomacy chief Tobias Bilstroem, this is the lower spending limit, he besides believes that "Europeans should take on greater work in transatlantic relations and build a strong Europe in NATO". [5] Bilstroem besides assured of further military, financial and political assistance for the fighting Ukraine, besides paying attention to Sweden's contribution to collective safety of the alliance, which is based on advanced technologies and innovation. The Swedes will spend 27 billion crowns more on defence in 2024 than in 2023, which means an increase in national defence spending by 28%. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson reported on the anticipation of sending a Swedish battalion to Latvia to strengthen the NATO military contingent commanded by Canada. The Swedish arms manufacture produces internationally valued anti-tank measures (e.g. anti-tank gun. 84 mm Carl Gustav – utilized by Polish peculiar Forces and American Rangers, AT-4 – besides utilized by Polish peculiar Forces and NLAW launchers). Carl Gustav was the first anti-tank weapon to destruct the Russian T-90M tank in Ukraine. It is worth mentioning the export success of Swedish multitasking Gripen aircraft produced by Saab.

Defense cooperation with the US is based on a bilateral DCA signed in December 2023, whereby Sweden made available 17 military bases, ports and airports to US troops. [6] Another crucial asset of Sweden is its jacket, consisting of 7 corvettes – 5 of which are Visby-class units with reduced detection. After modernization they are besides to gain British CAMM anti-aircraft missiles. The Swedish Navy besides has 8 destroyers, 13 patrolmen, 165 CB90 assault boats and a signal designation ship. [7] 4 submarines are a major advantage of the Swedish Navy, adapted to operate in the shallow waters of the Baltic. The 5th ship is disarmed and remains on equipment readiness.

Interestingly, Sweden is the country with the largest number of islands in the world, which makes the coastline crucial in the doctrine of naval usage allowing the smooth hiding of tiny ships, and is the reason for building them in technology with reduced detection.

Swedish aviation's impact force is based on nearly 100 JAS Gripen fighters in versions C and D, and another 60 in the newer version E is contracted. They are intended to replace the machines of the time. JAS 39E Gripen are larger than the erstwhile versions of Gripen, with a starting mass akin to F-16, are besides expected to carry more weapons. On 2 November 2023, an agreement was signed to deliver AIM-120C-8 air-to-air missiles with a scope of 160km, last July the State Department agreed to sale 250 specified missiles for $650 million. They're expected to be moved by Gripeny. chopper aviation consists of 20 light-duty AW109, 18 NH90 transport helicopters and 15 Black Hawks. Sweden besides has 2 Saab 340 early informing aircraft, 5 Hercules transport aircraft and a flying tanker. [8]

The possible of the land army is like Finland – limited due to tiny demographic resources. With a population of 10 million, Sweden has a land army of 14.7 1000 professional soldiers, 11,000 reservists and 20,000 territorial defence soldiers. [9] In 2018, the draft was reinstated in Sweden, so in the event of war, the country can number on the engagement of the essential reserves. Land Army soldiers can number on modern equipment in the form of 100 tanks (local version of Leopard 2A5 – Stridsvagn 122, shortly these vehicles are to be upgraded to version 123A corresponding to German Leopard 2A8), 260 guns (including self-propelled cannon-haubice Archer). [10] The Swedes and the Americans developed a celebrated M982 Excalibur rocket capable of damaging targets 50km away, even according to any sources by 70km. [11] With counter-battery radars, this poses a serious threat to the artillery of a possible opponent. Swedes besides have more than a 1000 armored vehicles (including Stridsfordon 90 – Strf 9040 combat infantry wagons). [12] Swedish anti-aircraft defence relies on 16 RBS 98 systems and 4 batteries (12 launchers) of the Patriot system. Most of the equipment in the equipment of the Swedish army is simply a product of the indigenous armory.

Sweden has joined the Czech ammunition initiative, which aims to supply 800,000 cal. 155mm and 122mm fighting Ukraine. The initiative was announced at the Munich safety Conference by president Petr Pavel. At this point, Finland and respective another countries are considering joining this initiative. [13] The aim of the initiative itself is to get NATO's but besides russian ammunition among the countries of the alliance, but besides those outside, utilizing the same ammunition.

The military possible of Finland

Despite the limited demographic base, (Finland has only 5.5 million people) the Finnish army is seen as 1 of the largest in Europe. It presently spends more than 2% of GDP on arms. Through a mandatory military training system, the country is able to exhibit an army of 24,000 professional soldiers and 900,000 conscripts, during the war being able to mobilize 270 000 reserve soldiers. It has 237 tanks (of which 100 are German Leopards 2A6 and 137 are Leopards 2A4 of different versions), 212 combat infantry cars upgraded BMP-2D and CV9030 Fin, as well as about 1,100 another armored vehicles. [14] It besides has an extended coastal defence strategy and a tiny shallow-water fleet. The Finnish fleet consists of: 4 command ships, 4 Rauma rocket ships and 4 Hamina type, 5 miners and 16 trawlers. In fresh years Finland has been purchasing many weapons from, among others, Israel, the USA and South Korea. The air force has 61 U.S. F/A-18 Hornet fighters to be withdrawn and replaced in the coming years by American 5 generation F-35 Lightning II aircraft. The acquisition contract for 64 F-35 aircraft with equipment will cost Finland 8.4 billion euros.

Finland besides introduces the Israeli counter-battery radar strategy ELTA. [15] Finnish sky is guarded by the Norwegian-American NASAM 2 system, and Finland boasts extended artillery forces consisting of a full of 1,500 guns and rocket launchers close and long range.

The Finnish doctrine of full defence is characterized by the engagement of all public sector in the defence effort. [16] In the light of fresh declarations by representatives of the Finnish armed forces, the ground troops are to be able to enter the action within respective hours of the invasion. However, these forces have small armored potential, which may not be adequate to defy the Russian invasion. The defence strategy so far envisaged allowing the invaders to enter Finland and the defence to establish key strategical points along with the main cities. Emphasis was placed on the task of attacking troops as much harm as possible, utilizing ambushes and local counter-tolls, thus avoiding a conflict to destroy. In the first phase of the war during the Russian march into Finland, smaller but more motivated and better trained Finnish forces would attack the protracted Russian supply lines.

The function of the Baltic in NATO's defence doctrine

Thanks to Finland and Sweden's accession to the alliance, the Baltic Sea has become a geographically interior NATO basin. Russia has been restricted to Kronsztand and Körewiec, who has been heavy militarized in fresh years and is the base of the Russian Baltic fleet. The Åland islands of Finland are worth militarizing in the context of the presence of an alliance in the Baltic. However, the Russians rise as a counterargument the 1921 Alandish Convention, in which Finland undertook not to militarize the islands. [17] The NATO-Russia Treaty besides stands in the way of this agreement. Nevertheless, the control of the alliance over the Gulf of Finland may enable the Russian fleet to be closed in ports. The island of Gotland besides plays a strategical role, which can become an extension of supply lines to the Baltic States in the event of the closure of the Suwałki gulf.

Threats and opportunities from Sweden's accession to NATO

A valuable addition to the alliance thanks to Sweden's accession is strategically crucial island of Gotland. John Deni of the U.S. Army Institute for War Studies points out that the Kremlin is expanding its strength in the Baltic submarine fleet, despite the simplification of the Russian Baltic fleet for the Black Sea Fleet, Russian forces proceed to dominate the forces of fire and scope over NATO forces, even after taking into account Sweden. Therefore, according to an American expert, calling the Baltic "NATO waters" is powerfully elevated. [18] The defence doctrine of the Baltic states is simply a 65-kilometre Suwalski gulf, whose closure can cut through transport and logistics routes linking NATO countries of central and western Europe to the Baltic States. Sweden's presence in NATO increases the safety of the maritime alliance and allows the creation of maritime communication lines along with a supply base on the strategically located island of Gotland. In fresh years on a strategically located island, Sweden has reconstructed a regiment of land troops. According to the German defence minister Boris Pistorius, the central function for NATO is played by the port in Rostock, where the port logistics center of the alleged NATO defloyment hub is being built. [19] The base in Rostock besides participates in NATO Steadfast Defender exercises.

Risks and opportunities arising from Finland's accession to NATO

The process of ratifying Finland's accession to NATO can be described as the fastest in history. As a result, NATO's east flank expanded by 1,340 km from the Finnish border with Russia. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland began building a test part of the barrier network and patrols on the border with Russia. Russia's consequence to Finland's accession to NATO was essential, the expansion of forces in northern military districts was announced and fresh military districts in northern Russia were built. [20] Despite having crucial reserves of trained population, a tiny Finnish army may not be able to defy aggression Short notice. In the event of an attack, Finland will request material support, and strengthening its forces by allies. The issue of building warehouses is so a precedence (prepostitioned equipment). The nearest 1 is presently in Norwegian Trondheim. However, if the equipment is to be delivered from it, a crucial distance – 1000km extends the time of receiving support which is crucial during the raid.

Summary

Thanks to Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO, a strategical vacuum was filled. Currently, all 5 Scandinavian states are in the North Atlantic Alliance. [21] The strategical situation itself gives emergence to both threats and opportunities.

The challenge for Polish diplomacy and defence strategy will be to prevent safety segmentation from being divided into northern flanks (e.g. whose safety is traditionally curious in countries specified as Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands), east and Balkan, and to shift the defensive force to the north. The entry of Finland and Sweden increases NATO's military potential, but poses a major challenge in the request to make a new, coherent doctrine for the defence of the east flank, along with the northern flank without thereby segmenting security. This should be accompanied by further improvement of the military capabilities of these countries.

The threat to the overall safety structure is besides the alleged Nordic expression – in which Sweden and Finland do not agree to build NATO infrastructure and deploy alliance forces on their territory. If you don't step distant from this doctrine, the Baltic will not become a full interior alliance water and the Baltic countries will not gain strategical depth. However, the latest Swedish-American agreement to supply bases and ports sets a affirmative precedent. [22] Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO is simply a crucial step forward in expanding the safety architecture of the east flank of NATO and the projection of forces, but it besides brings with it the requirements and threats the alliance must work on.

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