After Ukraine and Russia, after Canada, Greenland and Mexico, after the European Union, Gaza and the war on customs with the world, Donald Trump took over Iran and won't let go.
"Iran and the U.S. on the brink of military conflict", "Iran warns US", "Iran firmly responds to US threats", " Iran's authorities quietly prepare to attack", "Or agreements or bombings?" – for many days the media have been thundering in Poland as well.
The U.S.-Iran atomic programme is scheduled to arrive in Oman next Saturday. The full planet is waiting for what they look like and how these negotiations end. Could there be an attack? What does all this mean?
– erstwhile president Donald Trump came to power, 1 could anticipate the Iranian atomic program to be targeted by the American administration – comments on subject Witold Waszczykowski, erstwhile head of the MFA and erstwhile ambassador to Iran.
Already during the first word of the current U.S. president on the Washington-Tehran line, it was on fire.
– In 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the atomic agreement with Iran, which was concluded in 2015. He imposed sanctions and a policy of massive pressure. The main concerns were that the 2015 agreement only froze the atomic program and did not include the rocket program. Trump's individual relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu besides pointed out that Iran would become a precedence for the US," says Witold Waszczykowski.
Do we have anything to fear?
– We are presently dealing with acute rhetoric. However, I do not see any preparations for armed action. It's political force on Iran. Trump is besides trying to get Russia to resign from cooperation with Iran and even to act as a mediator. However, I do not regulation out an American or Israeli raid on any military or petrochemical installation as a informing and strengthening of force on intermediate talks planned in Oman – the erstwhile diplomat believes.
Adds: – Iran has small defence against the US. His allies in the region: Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, are broken. Iran's answers are so far ambiguous. There are so minimal chances of conversation.
This is what it is worth to know before these talks.
1. What Trump demands from Iran and what it threatens
The U.S. president demands Iran's resignation from the atomic program and threatens to usage military force unless Iran signs an agreement on this. He keeps saying he can't let Iran get a atomic weapon.
– They can't have atomic weapons – he repeated the threats on April 9. erstwhile again, he did not regulation out military use. He said Israel would play a key role.
– Something will happen very quickly. I would like a peace agreement alternatively than another option, but this another option will solve the problem," he said in Fox News. Another time, he threatened to put Iran in "great danger" if talks about the fresh deal ended in failure.
– The president made it clear to Iran that he had to make a choice. He can make a deal with the president, he can negociate or meet hell," warned White home spokesperson Karoline Leavitt.
The US is besides pushing economically. They endanger with duties and sanctions. Finance Minister Scott Bessent announced that this is how they want to break the export of Iranian oil and weaken Iranian currency.
2. Why now Trump took on Iran and where it started
This is unfinished business with his first term. In May 2018, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the atomic agreement with Iran because, as he commanded, the 2015 agreement did not prevent Iran from gaining atomic weapons, it would lead to an arms race in the mediate East, due to the fact that another countries in the region might want to have specified weapons.
Now he wants a fresh deal. The case returned in March 2025.
In mid-March Trump sent a letter to the head of the Iranian Ministry of abroad Affairs, Abbas Aragchi. According to the Iranian media, it was an invitation to atomic negotiations, and it was besides intended to endanger to tighten sanctions if Iran did not agree. Previously, the letter was sent to Iran's highest leader ajatollah Ali Chamenei.
Trump was expected to give the Iranian authorities 2 months to make a decision and endanger with consequences. He stated that the solution to the negotiations "will be much better for Iran". "I think they wanted that letter. Otherwise, we will gotta undertake something due to the fact that there cannot be another atomic weapon," quoted Reuters.
3. What is it about the atomic agreement of 2015, which Trump withdrew from?
The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) agreement was concluded in July 2015 for Barack Obama's presidency. Negotiations have continued since 2013. It was signed with Iran by six powers: the USA, France, large Britain, China, Russia and Germany.
Its aim was to reduce Iran's atomic program in exchange for the gradual abolition of sanctions. Iran was besides to let global inspectors to enter its atomic facilities.
President Donald Trump criticized this agreement inactive during the 2016 presidential campaign. According to him, she supported terrorism due to the fact that the abolition of sanctions could have meant that money would go to Hamas and Hezbollah, which wage war with Israel.
After unilateral withdrawal from the U.S. Agreement they restored sanctions on Iran.
4. Did Iran follow the 2015 agreement
The West warns that in fresh years Iran has rapidly increased the production of enriched uranium. And since the agreement was concluded, Iran has far exceeded its limits. In turn, the media reports the findings of interviews. Recently, British "The Sun" published photographs of 3 secret centers in Iran, where work is to proceed on the improvement of atomic weapons.
And "New York Times" said that according to American intelligence, Iran formed a group of scientists that explores the anticipation of rapidly building a atomic bomb.
Israel has besides long warned that Iran is failing to comply with the agreement.
During president Joe Biden's reign, the U.S. held talks with Iran on this issue, but with mediocre results. These were not direct conversations. The last was held in September 2022.
5. Does Iran own atomic weapons?
Iran has been saying for years that its atomic program serves only civilian purposes and is peaceful. He claims there is no area for atomic weapons in Iran's atomic doctrine. At the same time, it impedes checks by global inspectors of the global Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
– This is simply a very frustrating situation. We proceed our activity there, but on a minimum level. They reduce cooperation in an unprecedented way," said Rafael Grossi, Head of the IAEA last year.
According to Iran, it has about 200 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. That's what the fresh York Times late reported. That's adequate to build 4 or 5 atomic bombs. "Iran steps distant from building a atomic bomb" – the media has been thundering for years.
6. How Iran reacts to Trump's threats
Iran rejected the offer of direct talks with the US. Upon receiving a letter from Trump, Iran's ultimate spiritual leader Ali Chamenei announced that Tehran would not negociate under duress. But, as he said, indirect negotiations can continue. “We will not accept any another method of negotiation,” said the head of the MFA of Iran.
Also, the president of the country Masud Peseškan declared that Iran does not avoid talks, but will not negociate at all costs.
And these are the talks to be held on April 12. They'll be brokered by Oman.
The Iranian MFA confirmed that there will be "indirect high-level talks in Oman". However, the Americans propose that the talks are to be direct. Donald Trump stated it would be a "very crucial meeting, almost at the highest level".
According to media reports, Iran's armed forces have been put on advanced alert.
7. What Israel threatens and what its function is
Trump has Benjamin Netanjah's support. It was at a joint press conference with him that Trump announced negotiations with Iran on 12 April.
The Israeli Prime Minister was a guest of the White House. After gathering with the president of the United States, he reiterated that Iran cannot hold atomic weapons. According to him, the U.S.-Iran agreement must presume physical demolition of atomic infrastructure. – We enter, blow up objects, dismantle all equipment under American supervision and command – he sees it that way.
He besides spoke of "military option" if the talks fail.
In January, "Washington Post" reported that "it is likely that Israel will carry out a preventive attack aimed at Iran's atomic program by mid-2025".
