India and the European Union are seemingly amazing partners who can push trade and geopolitics towards each otherSource: Wikimedia Commons. licence – Government Open Data licence – India (GODL). Author – Prime Minister’s Office
India, the most populous country in the world, is gaining importance. They are now the 5th economy in the world. By 2030, Japan and Germany are expected to outrun only the US and China. National ambitions have awakened successes so far. Prime Minister Narendra Modi promises that by 2050 India will become a developed country. However, the emerging power faces interior challenges and dangers in the neighborhood. Will India take their chances? What are the consequences of their failure?
The geopolitical scenery is likely to end with a single-polar planet in which the United States dominates the political and economical agreement. The evolving fresh order is referred to as the multipolar world. In our part of the globe, specified poles are usually considered internally divided US, aiming to grow Russia Putin and Communist China, whose economical power shifted the global gravity point to the Pacific. But there is another large power. That's what India is.
Eight decades of struggle
India has influenced planet politics since independency was restored in 1947. Jawaharlal Nehru, the first Prime Minister of India from 1947 to 1964, introduced the country to the way of neutrality in the Cold War. This made India 1 of the leaders of the Non-Involved States Movement, seeking to keep independency from both the US and the russian Union. However, due to the utmost poorness of tens of millions of citizens, caused by colonial economical backwardness and a series of wars with neighbouring Pakistan, India remained limited for development. The real challenge for this country was the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 and the request to adapt to the planet dominated by America.
The 21st century brought India a wave of success. The U.S. has accepted the fact that they have atomic arsenal. The Indian economy has become a giant as a consequence of reforms and gradual beginning up to global trade, with any of the highest yearly growth rates in the world. The origin of national pride was further successes of the Indian space program, specified as launching a investigation probe towards the Sun in 2024. At the same time, neighbouring Pakistan, the conventional enemy of India, sank into a deep interior crisis, making India a greater advantage in the world.
Since the establishment of the Intergovernmental Organisation BRICS in 2009, India was among the alleged emerging powers. In the face of expanding Chinese-American rivalry India seems to have a correct relation with most powers. They proceed traditionally friendly relations with Russia despite the country's attack on Ukraine. At the same time, QUAD cooperates with the US, Australia and Japan to limit China's ambition in the Indo-Pacific region. Interestingly, however, this does not mean a complete break-up with China. In addition to this BRICS initiative India is trying not to escalate existing tensions from the PRC. A manifestation of Indian moderation is the October 2024 agreement on deescalation in the Himalayan region, where the exact course of the Chinese-Indian border has never been established.
The Fatam organ of power?
Change on a global chess board is simply a key challenge for the future of Poland and the world. The imagination of India as a fresh superpower can bring opportunities and threats. Equally dramatic can be the consequences of India's possible failures. As Dr. Rafał Wiśniewski of CISiD UAM points out: – India is among the world-famous powers, even if their participation in the G20 can prove this. However, India does not have specified opportunities for global impact as the United States and China," the investigator notes. – Throughout the period since India's independency and the origin of the PRC, this is simply a complex relation where there are elements of conflict and intense competition, but besides a desire to keep a affirmative relation and any cooperation, he adds. While India treats China as a threat, it is hard to say that it clearly fits into a block under the leadership of the United States. The expert notes that America's current economical policy under Donald Trump threatens Modi's ambition and his BJP organization to make India an industrial power. In this context, the possible for Indian-European cooperation is peculiarly interesting. – It is clear that there is an interest on the part of many European companies or countries in closer economical cooperation with India. The rapidly increasing Indian mediate class are possible buyers of more costly European goods. This is 1 of the reasons why India is curious in discussing common liberalisation of trade with the European Union," he emphasises.
India leads the game on respective fronts, striving to improve its position in the world. At the same time, they face immense challenges, specified as poorness and the climate crisis. At an average age of only 29, India has a chance to benefit from an unprecedented demographic dividend, but the expansive social dissection and slowing economical growth are alarm signals. Only time will tell if India will take their chance.
Oskar KMAK
