Is there gonna be a spectacular breakthrough? “Trump started retreating in respective directions”

• “The Trump administration began to realize that it was exaggerating and that it might gotta change tactics,” said the expert
• Volodymyr Zelenski was invited to the White home again. “ This time it may be a gathering behind closed doors,” says Petro Oleszczuk
• “Trump emphasizes that everything should be implemented as shortly as possible. We do not know how the American president will respond if the Russian president de facto refuses him," the expert notes
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“Trump started retreating in respective directions”

Maria Tsiptsiura: News seems little bad than a fewer days ago. What do you think? Is there reason for optimism? What are the main lessons that can be drawn from the talks?

Petro Oleszczuk: Not for nothing. The most crucial consequence of these talks is that the United States has yet recognised the request to put force on Russia to accomplish peace. They besides understood the very simple truth: any cessation of war or truce is possible only with the consent of both parties. It is clear that from a applicable point of view the main consequence is the unlocking of military aid. And reopening the exchange of intelligence.

At the same time, the United States and Ukraine reached an agreement. And what happened was what Ukraine had been looking for for a long time. The point is that all partners, including the United States, should jointly make demands for Russia. Washington and Kiev yet agreed a common position on a 30-day ceasefire. And as Rubio said, the ball is now on Russia's side. It's hard to tell where it'll lead to, and if Putin will agree.

What prompted Trump to change his position?

Well, Trump started retreating in respective directions. For example, he announced a fresh tariff increase for Canada, but then withdrew from it. I think Trump's administration has begun to realize that it is exaggerating and possibly she will gotta change her tactics.

“The refusal to assist Ukraine was shortsighted”

What could aid the United States to rethink the situation in Ukraine?

I think there are respective factors. Firstly, our partners' consequence to US activities was very negative. Everyone tried to convince Trump that the refusal to aid Ukraine was shortsighted. This position has supported many political leaders in the US. The thought of leaving Ukraine unsupported proved unpopular in American society. This is an crucial origin for Trump. It seems that the White home has realised that their position, which they have late promoted, does not have adequate support both in the US and among their partners.

Moreover, I can presume that the Trump administration had a mistaken knowing of the situation in Ukraine based on the fantasies of any members of the President's team. For example, it was believed that Zelenski's dictatorship was terrible in Ukraine and that Ukrainians dreamed of changing it from morning to night. But the reaction of Ukrainian society clearly showed that this is not the case. And that the president addresses issues that affect most people, specified as safety guarantees. And it is worth noting that the US was represented by Rubio and Waltz, who played the function of good police and thus opened the door to regulate relations between Ukraine and the US, which is besides in the interests of the Trump administration.

Even Zelenski was again invited to the White House, which was unexpected after the last situation in the Oval Office.

Yeah. possibly this time it will be a gathering behind closed doors. It is clear that they do not have any provocative tasks now, but alternatively show that relationships are normalizing. I have the impression that Trump squad representatives have lived for a long time the logic of the election campaign. And they didn't truly realize how closely the US and Ukraine are now connected. That war is an crucial subject for American society, there are many Americans who are empathetic with the situation, arms producers and contracts, etc. I don't think they've considered these factors. And they didn't rapidly realize that for the U.S. the war in Ukraine is not specified a distant conflict. I think all these factors played a function in what we saw during the negotiations.

A extremist change in Trump's policy? "Reset of relations with Russia"

Does that mean Trump can change his policy?

No, it doesn't mean a extremist change in Trump's policy. He will effort to reset relations with Russia and search agreement with Putin. But it is clear that Ukraine's voice has become louder. 1 way or another, the United States is forced to recognise Ukraine as a partner. And that will find further negotiations. The US realized that they could not simply ignore Ukraine and pretend that this country did not exist. And most importantly, they may yet realize that this is not Zelenski's individual fault, who is trying to draw more money from mediocre Americans, but that there is simply a Ukrainian nation with its own interests and goals.

Yes, they did not even rise the issue of elections in Ukraine again.

Yes, they did. due to the fact that elections in Ukraine are a Russian demand. And the U.S. tried not to rise Putin's most disgusting demands. And they agreed to a ceasefire, which is crucial to Trump. It's all up to Russia now. But it's not certain they'll agree. We'll see.

What will Russia do?

Can Russia agree to a ceasefire?

Most likely, they can now start presenting counter-oppositions. Finally, both Putin and Russian diplomats had previously stressed that they were not curious in the ceasefire. So it's hard to foretell Putin's reaction. I don't think she's going to reject the proposal straight due to the fact that she's not in the right position. But at the same time, he'll start manipulating and setting additional conditions. And for us, the most crucial thing is how the Trump administration behaves and whether it meets all these demands or not.

Trump didn't say a bad word about Putin during his presidency. And now there's a proposal for a ceasefire. This is the first major request since 2022 in which Moscow openly and publically refuses to full meet the objectives of the alleged peculiar operation. Putin may not refuse directly, but he may start stalling and citing controversies.

At the same time, Trump stresses that everything should be implemented as shortly as possible. We do not know how the American president will respond if the Russian president de facto refuses him.

How can the United States put force on Russia?

There's quite a few talk in the U.S. about sanctions. And of course it will be the main tool. There may be fresh restrictions on sanctions.

The most apparent way is to increase military aid to Ukraine. But so far, the Trump administration has tried to avoid it.