I don't know how many of my readers previous post drew attention to this passage:
Well... Under European regulations, insurance companies refuse reinsurance to tankers. It is not about demanding advanced or even absurd insurance rates, it is about full and unconditional refusal.
The shipping stopped completely, due to the fact that without reinsurance no tanker will sail, especially since then no port will be allowed to service it. And the main reason for this is in Europe.
Of course, no one's reasoning about it, due to the fact that everybody knows on tv that it's only Trump with his senseless war he owes advanced fuel prices. Concerning Trump's sense of action, it is crucial to callback Iran's highly advanced atomic program and fresh large-range rocket attack. How large is it in the picture? Whatever, 1 or 2 nukes in the hands of muslim fanatics with rockets a fewer 1000 kilometers. You could have waited another fewer years.
Iran launched 2 ballistic missiles towards a common U.S. and UK base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. 1 rocket failed on the flight. The United States has intercepted the second. This is an Iranian rocket attack effort with the top scope in history.
Prior to that, Iran declared voluntary coverage restrictions to 2000 km (white interior area), but both missiles were 5,000 km (outside red area). The outlines of continents and ranges are deformed due to the difficulty of mapping a sphere on a flat map.
The blockage of the Ormuz Strait is multidimensional. Of course, there is simply a hazard of war. Despite the demolition of most of the Iranian army, ships are attacked by floating and flying drones, rockets, etc. The anticipation of destroying a tanker with comparatively inexpensive and simple means makes the threat real.
Despite the actions of the American fleet, many locations can be mined. However, Iran tries to selectively block it, tries to keep the anticipation of oil exports to China, so by putting mines at a time erstwhile it was inactive capable of doing so, it had to keep the corridors free from them, which is hard to keep secret.
The main reason for the tanker traffic to cease is the position of Lloyd’s insurers, who completely refuse reinsurance. This adds to the reluctance of European NATO members to take part in the protection of shipping.
It is specified a unusual phenomenon that Europe's values powerfully depend on who happens to be president of the United States. In the case of attacks against Iraq, Libya and respective another countries, participation in the war was reportedly our allied duty. They all volunteered. Then paradoxically, the war against Iraq, which was not a threat, worsened Europe's security, removing Iran's conventional enemy.
Now all of a sudden, the same figures who support earlier aggression on Iraq are behind Iran's atomic fanatical right to peaceful self-determination. In addition, as I wrote in my erstwhile post, the rulers of Europe in protest against Trump decided to unfreeze our ears, persistently refusing to participate in the protection of shipping by the Ormuz Strait
Moreover, the countries of Europe are doing everything to make life hard for the US. For example, Spain is closing its airspace for aircraft active in anti-Iran activities. Similarly, the Italians refused to usage the base in Sicily. It may seem naive that their restraint will prevent them from attacking Iran. It's so naive. All infidels must die. Even Muslim Qatar, 1 of Iran’s very thin allies, did not avoid an attack erstwhile the Guardians of the Revolution recognized him as a servant of the infidels.
Such and akin actions of allies led US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to say in an interview with Al-Jazira that it is "very disappointing" that NATO allies specified as Spain blocked the usage of their airspace and bases in the U.S. war against Iran. He warned that Washington would reconsider NATO's value after the war ended. Again, there will be tears that Trump leaves European allies to himself, and here behind Russia's threshold.
Similar relativity of European Union principles can besides be observed in relation to associate States. For example, the regulation of law in Poland miraculously improved immediately after the change of government, without any changes in law and justice. So the alleged rules are just an excuse. Examples could be multiplied.
The current communicative tells of the impulsive Trump, whose actions are supposedly dictated by his immaturity, his inability to stay calm, his compulsive request to act without a plan and his ability to anticipate these consequences.
But it may be the opposite. Trump knows well what he wants and how he wants, and his actions are elements of a larger plan, which the audience, but besides "experts" and politicians are incapable to see sufficiently early. Only from a further perspective, seemingly chaotic actions prove to be elements of a larger puzzle, but it is besides late to react.
World oil problems caused by the war with Iran have barely affected the United States, prepared by Trump's earlier actions. First, by repairing the harm caused by Obama and Biden, he launched the reconstruction of home mining and processing. The US then secured access to Venezuelan oil and a fewer insignificant sources. So the current fuel crisis is mainly a crisis in Europe.
Now we have another US and Trump operation. Do you inactive think they are unrelated, and he is simply a lowly man who knows not what he does?
Marc Gravely
Yesterday I explained how 7 London insurance companies stopped 1 5th of the world's oil supply. present Trump most likely just made the most aggressive state insurance movement in modern history. This is what happened and why it matters: Trump ordered the American improvement Finance corp (DFC) to immediately offer insurance and political hazard guarantees for all maritime trade in the Gulf. Especially in the energy sector. If necessary, supported by a Navy escort. Read it through the prism of what I described yesterday. The strait wasn't closed due to the missiles. It was closed due to the fact that the insurance marketplace broke down. P&I clubs withdrew from insurance, reinsurers withdrew, and the full commercial shipping architecture froze. This decision doesn't solve a military problem. It solves the actuarial problem. The DFC fills the void that Lloyd's and the London reinsurance marketplace created by retreating. The U.S. government actually says, we insure what the private marketplace won't do. No sovereign attempted to replace the global maritime war hazard marketplace in real time during the ongoing conflict. This is why structural implications are important:
1. It undermines Lloyd's dominance. For centuries London was a marine insurance center. Lloyd's and his reinsurers controlled prices, conditions and appetite for hazard in global shipping. It was this concentration that enabled actuarial blockade. A fistful of companies in 1 city have frozen global oil flows. The DFC offering competitive policy hazard insurance for all shipping lines poses a direct challenge to this architecture. If American-backed insurance proves cheaper and more reliable during crises, shipowners may not return to London erstwhile the dust settles.
2. He's breaking the actuarial block. Yesterday, I said that China has a immense influence on Iran, but no country has a large influence on Lloyd's. The same applies to any country producing and consuming oil that watches its economy choke. This completely bypasses the insurance market. If the DFC insures the cruise, and the Navy escorts the tanker, the ships depart. Oil's flowing. The spreadsheet lock is broken.
3. It redirects billions of dollars in contributions revenue. War hazard contributions in the Persian Gulf now scope utmost multiples — 3 to 5 times higher than before the conflict. These contributions flowed to London reinsurers who withdrew the insurance anyway. Now these contributions are coming to Washington. At rates that DFC can set below the panicked London market, while generating crucial profits. The same shippers get cheaper insurance. gross just changes continents.
4. It creates a narrow throat in a narrow throat. The Strait of Ormuz is already the world's most serious narrow energy throat. If the United States is both an insurer and a marine escort, America controls access at 2 levels: physical safety and financial security. No another country can repeat that.
The world's dominant navy and sovereign financial balance is needed to safe the risk. Only 1 country has both.
5. That calms all the stakeholders at the same time. Producers from the Persian Gulf observed the frost on exports. Consumers in Asia and Europe observed a sharp increase in energy prices. Both feared that the Iranian run would ruin their economies. 1 announcement was for all of them: your oil will flow, your ships will be insured, and the rates will be reasonable. Yesterday I described the strategy without a TARP program, without a Fed equivalent, without global security. This may be the first real-time effort to build specified a strategy in the midst of the crisis itself. Actuarial block just hit the sovereign side.
With this effect, I order the American improvement Finance corp (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, insurance against political risks and financial safety guarantees of any maritime trade, especially in the energy sector, flowing through the Persian Gulf. This insurance will be available to all shipping lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting the tankers through the Ormuz Strait as shortly as possible. No substance what, the United States will supply a free movement of energy to the world. US economical AND WAR POWER IS MOST IN THE planet More action soon.
Thank you for your attention!
President Donald J. TUMP
Almost a period has passed since this declaration, and shipping has not yet been brought back on a larger scale, but let us remember the attitude of the European NATO members. Europe should depend, while the US has no reason to rush.
I do not know to what degree this information has reached most Polish media consumers or what the various commentators, especially “experts”, say. However, I believe that the above A brief entry by Donald Trump announces the beginning of a fresh era.
First, NATO's demise. This began with attempts to end the war in Ukraine, where Trump sought peace, while Europeans tried to prolong the war at all costs. The possible of losing a beautiful multibillion dollar money laundering is unacceptable to them, so the war continues and people proceed to die. We won't quit a button or a million dollars under the table. We defend our money to the last Ukrainian.
In consequence to the European Obstruction on Ukraine, the announcement of the withdrawal of the American protective umbrella gave emergence to a momentary stir. This decision ended in nothing, due to the fact that Europe, alternatively of making sense of its defence, is trying to figure out how to take as much freedom and money as possible from its citizens under Russia's threat slogans.
Now, erstwhile it was an chance to show military strength and readiness to act, European leaders reacted with pout and indecisiveness, even though the operation in the Ormuz Strait would be in their best interests. Not only to reconstruct supplies, but besides to show solidarity within NATO. However, Europe is offended by Trump, due to the fact that not only does it not share its dream, it inactive laughs loudly.
Of course, akin frictions within NATO have already been done before, and the alliance continues, as there are many benefits for both parties. However, these are serious signals of increasing differences in interests.
By refusing to cooperate, Europe has marginalised itself.
Second failure of dominance in the global reinsurance system. Lloyd’s controlled 50% or more of the global insurance market. Without insurance, there is no shipping, trade, construction, that is, insurance control is control of economies. Now Lloyd’s companions died in panic like bugs pretending to be dead. You can effort to last this, but if others are working at this time, it will no longer be possible to return to a pre-crisis state.
The above entry by president Trump clearly shows this: the emerging gap in the global insurance marketplace is immediately occupied by the United States.
Third, and possibly most important. Marginisation of Europe in the global energy market.
As much as Europeans do not realize the situation and the function of energy in the economy, 1 of the prominent Euro-Mats illustrates. Unfortunately, I did not show appropriate vigilance, nor did I compose down a individual or a statement, so I quote from memory. The authorship of the message is of small importance, due to the fact that they all think so, and most likely a large proportion of citizens taking propaganda, and the content is about this:
It is good that this oil crisis has occurred, due to the fact that it will encourage everyone to save energy, abandon conventional sources and decision faster to RES.
Very good, very good. For the sake of ideology, let us close the economy, and windmills and bicycles are our future. They match akin rugs braided on the occasion of covid-1984. For smart people, the availability of cheap, stable, weather-independent energy is only luxury and fanabria of the ignorant people. I propose they do open-heart surgery in a solar panel room. With the eyes of the soul, I see them lying on the table watching the cloud come and the pump pumping their blood slows down...
Meanwhile, energy is simply a social, economic, method and technological development. Military, too. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has already ceased to be a novelty and a curiosity. This is simply a powerful tool for controlling industrial processes, research, medicine, but besides unfortunately a battlefield. This 4th industrial revolution and delays in it will origin the full era to be delayed. Each year of delays in AI will mean decades of delays in all others.
Not everyone remembers that AI is simply a large data processing center. Centralized or dispersed, whatever, to function requires quite a few energy. Energy available constantly, without breaks on clouds, night or flouts. In view of the multiplicity of the location, it is hard to calculate global energy request for AI calculations, but respective of these largest centres usage as much as a country like Japan. Day and night, not only erstwhile the sun shines.
If Europe wants to keep pace with the US, Far East or Russia, it must have unchangeable sources of inexpensive energy. Giving it up in the name of a perversion. zero net, She marginalizes herself for the next 100 years.
Do you inactive think about Poland's membership in the European Union as a anticipation of civilization?
Thank you for reading Substack Jack! Subscribe for free to receive fresh posts and support my work.
