Record increase in exports in the era of "transformator shortage"
Between January and August 2025, Chinese exports of transformers amounted to RMB 29,711 billion (about USD 4.1 billion), an increase of 51.42% compared to the same period of the erstwhile year. August alone brought exports at the level of RMB 4,718 billion, or 57.90% more than the year before. This is the 4th consecutive year in which exports of transformers from China stay at a very advanced level of growth – the trend started in 2021.
The biggest recipients of Chinese transformers are countries of Asia (20.27 billion RMB) and Africa (4.76 billion RMB), but crucial growth was besides recorded in Europe (+138.03%). Only for North America was there a decrease in exports (–4.35%), which is associated with US restrictions on Chinese energy equipment.
Global request driven by renewable energy and AI
Export growth is simply a direct consequence to the global shortage of transformers caused by a sharp increase in request in respective key sectors:
- Renewable energy: photovoltaic and wind farms require 1.5–3 times more transformers than conventional coal power plants. Their distributed structure, unstable production and the request for multiple voltage conversions make all section of the renewable energy supply chain – from panel to network – request dedicated transforming devices.
- AI Data Centers: The improvement of artificial intelligence drives request for immense computing powers. GPU servers and systems require low voltage at advanced current, which in turn forces the usage of specialized reducing transformers.
- Energy network modernisation: in the US and the EU, many transformers are between 30 and 40 years old, which exceeds their planned life (25 years). Energy infrastructure regeneration programmes further increase demand.
Supply crisis and long lead times
The global transformer sector faces production capacity at the limit of capacity. According to analysts, the average transportation time of the transformer is now 115–130 weeks (more than 2 years), and for large units – up to 210 weeks (more than 4 years). In Europe, the waiting time for fresh equipment exceeds 18 months.
Meanwhile, Chinese producers, with full control of the supply chain, can reduce this time to 10-12 months while offering 20-30% lower prices. This gives them a key competitive advantage in markets where timeliness and cost are decisive.
Complete autonomous supply chain
The Chinese advantage is not based only on low labour costs. A full located and independent supply chain – from natural materials (copper, silicon steel, insulation) to finished equipment – is crucial. China is the world's largest maker of copper and electrical steel, and key components – specified as DCS control systems – are produced 100% domestically.
In 2023 China was liable for over 60% of the world's production of transformers. Over the past 5 years, they have exported about 3 billion units per year, which includes both multi-ton power transformers and microscopic components in telephone chargers.
Technological innovation: from imitation to leadership
Chinese companies have moved from the function of producers commissioned to global technological leaders. An example is the world's first 500 kV transformer with plant oil-based insulation, launched in August 2025 in Guangzhou. This device is safer for the environment, easier to dispose of and has better cooling properties than conventional mineral oil transformers.
Perspectives for the coming years
Analysts foretell that the global transformer marketplace will scope USD 103 billion by 2031 (an increase from USD 58.6 billion in 2021). In this situation, Chinese companies – specified as TBEA (Tebian Electric), China XD Group or Baobian electrical – have a real chance of further expansion, especially in developing countries where infrastructure is lacking but energy request is increasing.
With the current pace of development, the next 3–5 years could bring a fresh wave of growth for the Chinese transformer sector – not only as a supplier but besides as a legislator of technological standards in global energy.
Source:
- Tencent News – Global transformer crisis: Chinese exports grow by 51%, https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251022A03RFO00
- International Energy Agency (IEA) – Electricity 2025: Analysis and Forecast to 2027, https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2025
- Wood Mackenzie – Global Power Transformer Supply Chain Outlook 2025, https://www.woodmac.com/reports/power-transformer-market-outlook-2025
- Global marketplace Insights – Transformer marketplace Size & Share Report, 2025–2031, https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/transformer-market
Leszek B. Glass
Email: [email protected]
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