The European temper towards Donald Trump present is simply a mosaic of utmost emotions: from friendly curiosity, through cold calculation, to open aversion. Hot spots are mainly seen in the South and Central and east Europe and cold zones in the North and West. This division is influenced not only by organization colors, but besides by the memory of commercial disputes and the question of the durability of the American safety umbrella.
Thefad.pl / AI
What do we know for sure
In Italy, where political chemistry between Giorgia Meloni and Trump is clear, the percent of affirmative ratings is about 28 percent — more than in the traditionally close U.S. of Britain (about 22 percent) and higher than in France or Spain (about respective percent). At the second pole lies Denmark with a level close to 6 percent, which is well in line with the long-standing distance after the Greenland "episode". In parallel, pan-European investigation draws a strip of comparative sympathy in Romania, Hungary and Poland (with results of 25-30 percent), but besides a increasing group of respondents who specify Trump as a policy of hostile Europe — with Poland and part of the EW falling distant from the average.
What It Changes
Not "states" like Trump, but circumstantial political tribes. Hungarian Fidesz is leading due to the fact that the vast majority of his constituents consider Trump's presidency to be beneficial to the country. In Poland, the voters of the Law and Justice and somewhat little of a Confederate justice it, including the Romanian AUR and the Italian Brothers Giorgia Meloni. On the another side are liberal and left-wing electorates in Western countries, where dislike of Trump has become part of political identity. The economical context is emotional: the summertime tariff framework between the US and the EU, with the "up to 15 percent" rule as a tariff ceiling on the American side, has been perceived by many Europeans as humiliating and deepened skepticism towards Washington.
What's next?
First of all, safety test. Will the “East Axis” — including Poland — keep the belief that Trump strengthens deterrence against Russia despite its firm transactional approach to NATO and the war in Ukraine?
Secondly, Meloni effect. If Rome maintains a pragmatic relation with the White House, Italian sympathy can be established; if not, the European standard of skepticism will return.
Third, Trade. Maintaining customs and regulatory tensions threatens the West's moods; their extinction will cool emotions and can bring perceptions closer to each side of the continent. Without breakthroughs the map of feelings will stay asymmetrical: warmer in Rome, Budapest and Warsaw, cold in Copenhagen, Paris and Berlin.
Source: YouGov, Le Grand Continent
