States are competitively and even competitively minded. Insecurity and hostility in neighbouring relations are more common in many places in the planet than constant relationship and common trust. erstwhile conflicts and clashes between states occur, each organization suffers a civilian disaster.
Carl von Clausewitz's thesis shows that the war treated as an extension of politics by another means is primarily a disgrace to the elites of the ruling disputed states. They have a work to defend their well-being and citizens from demolition and death. However, their ineptness, miscalculation, or cynicism, and fierceness condemn nations to unimaginable suffering.
The drama of modern Ukraine...
It is that the russian elites, including oligarchs who are guided by selfish profit interests, were incapable to build an independent global strategy, taking into account the hard geopolitical situation between the 2 giants of the global scene – Russia and the West. By preaching for many years a strategy of unalignment, in fact, it has been following from the alleged Orange Revolution of 2004 towards putting the state under control of the US services. This caused an interior conflict, more connected with defining its identity than with concrete affiliations – western or eastern. Russia became an aggressor in the eyes of the West, while in Russia's reception the West is the real perpetrator of the disaster. The war in Ukraine promotes the building of a heroic image of the state-sacrifice. It is besides a motive for the unparalleled mobilisation of Western states (and indeed US pressure) in providing generous assistance to the assaulted state. The aim is to usage this pretext not only to weaken Russia as a rival of the West, but besides to take over its assets and resources which global capitalism would benefit from.
The full dependence of Ukraine not only on incurred debts disappears from the field of sight (these can yet be remitted), but on the will of the dictated conditions of the United States. It has been known for a long time that the powers that depend on the weaker participants in global relations let themselves more than due to the real needs or interests of addicts. The entry into the "cooperative dependence" from the West is, in many opinions, better for Ukraine than the "conflict rivalry" with Russia. However, all observer must be aware that erstwhile entering the region of Western influence Ukraine will not get free of the mark of Russian "sensitivity".
Russia reacts and will respond unequivocally to Ukraine's western affiliations, fearing for its "living interests" of existence and security. This is confirmed by courageous researchers and any politicians, but their voice is considered irrelevant. Ukraine is so permanently dependent on external protection. However, it is not known whether in the long word the West will want to warrant its safety and even its survival. Who would want to take this country for their living? Not all governments can afford the altruistic selflessness demonstrated by the Polish government.
It seems that the most favourable choice of the Ukrainian state, which is besides dysfunctional in many areas, a corrupt and insolvent client towards armed corporations, a petent towards integration structures and Western governments, would be "complementarism" in multi-vector cooperation, both with Russia and the West. specified constancy in the light of the ongoing war and the desire for retaliation now seems to be a heresy.
However, strategical thought must precede existing conditions. It must anticipate various scenarios of global developments, including the failure of the US and their crisis of leadership in the West. Nor does the pessimistic script of Russia's defeat and disintegration warrant Ukraine's success, as it threatens a global disaster, after which there will be no winners. So there is simply a search for any modus vivendi, even at the price of territorial changes. The borders of the states – contrary to naive expectations and rich experience – are not given erstwhile and for all.
International law and practice of global relations are acquainted with specified solutions which are more crucial to the voice of the population than the formal belonging of the territory in which that population is located. There are various options for global control to defend civilians and carry out plebiscites on their recognition and future geopolitical status. past provides examples of autonomous, protective, mandated, fiduciary and condominium solutions, but the powers are afraid to scope them due to negative associations with the era of imperialism or colonialism. The creation of a "self-contained" Kosovo in 2008 is besides not optimistic due to the "political and economical rationality" of this geopolitical unit and the underlying dispute with Serbia. In this context, he wonders and even annoys the helplessness of UN bodies, which have lost initiative and plunged the organization into an end stage.
Political realists, taking into account the hazard of a hegemonic war with China and Russia, and in full with the alleged remainder of the world, are increasingly aware that the opposition of the West, based on “civilizational superiority”, “ideological mission”, or “atavistic hostility” will consequence in the demolition of the globe. Given the dynamics of the relation between forces (with Anglo-Saxon balance of power), the logic of the Cold War should be abandoned as shortly as possible. Before Ukraine matures into its own imagination of identity as a circumstantial joker in an inter-powerful game, the parties to the conflict, looking only at their rations, can lead to the demolition of the full planet.
Therefore, the peace process must begin as shortly as possible, even erstwhile it sounds offensive to many enemies of peace. European politicians are aware that the prolonged war is peculiarly harmful to Ukraine itself. Anyone who calls for negotiations is so acting in the interests of this country and society. However, not necessarily in the interests of the Kiev political elite, which state management has turned into spectacular “war management”.
Stop the hatred spiral
The collective West has the work to draw this unfortunate state out of a deep ideological and intellectual crisis, from sinking into an "eternal war" with the Moscals, from cultivating hatred and thirst for retaliation. It is besides the work of Poland and Poles who should draw realistic conclusions from historical experiences, not lie and flee into amnesia.
Polish governments, regardless of their perfect provenance, have adopted a romanticist heritage as an axiom, as late recalled in the anthology of texts Zygmunt Krasiński on Russia (Russia. Anthology, Warsaw 2023). Recognising the attitude towards this country (as a origin of metaphysical evil) as the main determinant of east politics, all political forces have placed themselves in the position of common blackmailing the Russian factor. Anyone who makes any motion towards Russia, which deviates from the widely imposed political line, is exposed not only to anatomy, but to exclusion from the ellipse of people worthy of participation in public life.
Bidding who is simply a greater patriot by the prism of hatred of Russia is simply a persistent cognitive aberration, requiring specialized therapy on a mass scale. Cognitive distortions affect the inability to practice realistic politics for subsequent generations, endangering the existence of the state and nation, dragging Poland after tragic “tracks, missions, destinations”. Today, in the light of the continuation of the tragic policy of absolute conflict with Russia, it is clear that Polish elites endure from rusophobic determinism and Ukraine is only its trigger. How He Appreciates Lech Mażewski, it would be fatal if the attitude of Polish governments to the Kremlin resulted from the recidivism of insurgent blackmail and the policy of retaliation for past harm ("Insurgent blackmail and policy of retaliation", Warsaw 2022).
It seems that 1 of the most crucial “historical demons” – the story of “the murdered kingdom” – is at the root of all the misfortunes in Polish-Russian relations. Yes Adam Zagajewski poetically he called the trauma after the failure of the Jagiellonian monarchy ("Solidarity and Loneliness", Warsaw 2002, pp. 81-82), which has been obsessively provoking for respective 100 years until rematch and retaliation under completely different circumstances and conditions. another "historical demons" have imposed on this trauma, which makes Poland a slave to not so much history, but to consciously created pathological "historical politics".
The Ukrainian War created an chance to revive this mythical heritage. She has unleashed in all social circles a immense emotional boost that has become a feed for various “engineering” political narratives to look at this conflict solely from the position of the victim. Political consolidation around solidarity with Ukraine was based on forced unanimity, denying people reasoning about their own views. There were many “watchmen” who protected the congregation from different views. In a democratic state, oppressive and repressive censorship has been restored. Eliminateing the issue of the war consequences of engagement from the electoral discussions of each political organization is besides evidence that Polish politicians are not prepared to face the critics of "Paternalist infantilism", which naturally leads to increased tensions.
Opportunists and blunt bureaucrats
Currently there is no political formation in Poland that has independency and courage, but besides the ability to specify the national interest, which takes into account the interests of Poles themselves. The problem is more complex than it seems to an outside observer. In fact, independent intellectual reflection has disappeared. Opportunists and dull bureaucrats have a real advantage. Even universities were repressed due to the fact that they match their dependence on the structures of power, placing in the times of the PRL under the control of the governing party. On the another hand, many analytical and expert centres do not cover that they are financed and act on behalf of abroad agencies. In total, we are faced with an different paradox erstwhile our own country and its agendas are more afraid about the destiny of another country, receiving small in return.
The biggest problem is the deficiency of actors not only capable of conducting an independent and effective abroad policy, but even curious in specified an undertaking. The main political groups trust more on fancy visions of the hegemonic order, whether under the aegis of the United States or within the European Union, not wanting to see the deep decomposition of the arrangement of forces in global relations. The engagement in projects, based on ‘plural geopolitics’, with the participation of ‘new powers’, from China starting in shaping global governance, cannot be escaped.
To tell Poland that it has become a power in the region created for ideological and propaganda purposes of the "Międzymorza" or "Trimorza" region is nothing more than to put it permanently in the chariot of the hegemonic politics of the United States. However, erstwhile the Washington elites change their minds and halt investing in east Europe, Poland, which is inactive in the “satellite” mentality, will feel betrayed and alone. Political elites will not be able to reproduce without the engagement of an external origin any form of equality with Russia. Counting on its destabilization or full erasure from the map of Europe is not only a dream, but a evidence to the absurdity and complete separation from reality.
Russia stays
Russia, despite the anathema of the West, will stay a founding power in east Europe. This origin must be taken into account in all scenarios of the European future after the end of the Ukrainian War. In the fresh hand of the power roles, the West will not escape the arrangement with Russia, even erstwhile Western politicians cannot imagine negotiations with themselves Vladimir Putin. Russia will not quit on safety for itself. Setting up Ukraine and prolonging war lead unnecessarily to deepening the negative effects of the war disaster. These, on the another hand, will liberate Western societies from a rebellion that will wipe out the elite and lead to a disturbance on an unprecedented scale.
Poland will not be able to make wise usage of its position as moderator and co-creator of the fresh regional order due to its unequivocal support for Ukraine. For now, it is hard to overestimate the chances of winning 1 side or the another in the ongoing war. In all situation, however, the efforts to democratise and rebuild the Ukrainian state will should be consistently pursued in accordance with Western models (political pluralism, alternation of power, transparency, independency of courts, civilian liberties, etc.). It now seems premature to declare that Ukraine must be adopted into Western structures as shortly as possible. After all, in all case there are criteria for accession to the EU or NATO which depend on the subsequent process of adaptation of the adopted state and protection of the identity of existing structures. A country in disintegration and conflict with an atomic neighbour can bring more misery to its dowry into integration communities than it allows to see the angry rusophobia of the imagination of the scolded Western elite.
Looking at the “Polish-Polish War” and the ideological disputes between Poland and the European Union, it is hard to find what offer Poland has present towards its east neighbours. Belarus remains in a close relation with Russia and while it is ruled by the clan Aleksandra LukashenkaThere's no way she could be dragged to the west side. For Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia, however, the “European choice” that Poland offers them is full of question marks and ambiguities. In the light of the upcoming electoral fight, Poland's policy is becoming a large unknown. The state of the economy and the increasing social tensions point to the inability to lead in the geopolitical reorientation of the russian space. There is simply a clear contradiction between the intra-EU opposition of Poland and its claims to effectively represent EU values externally.
We besides encounter a immense wave of naivety in repeating American slogans about building democracy in the East and perpetuating Western values. By pointing to Russia, the authoritarian heritage of Byzantium, the Golden Orda, Carism and Stalinism is either forgotten or disregarded akin ancestry of Ukrainian political culture. To this should be added the rebel and anarchist element, as well as the "black cards" of flagism. It is crucial to realise that the process of grafting liberal values under specified conditions will not be swift or effective.
Poland is in specified a geopolitical position that without allied support it could not cope with the attack of “enemy” Russia. So it is worth remembering that each of the Western allies and partners is more crucial to her than she is to each of them. Zbigniew Brzeziński, which has been the top authority for successive governments in Warsaw to date, he has said that this is an apparent fact "and you should be a kid to not realize it" ("Wprost" of 27 September 2009).
Therefore, he urged that the fundamental disparity of potentials and the asymmetry of forces between Poland and the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France be assessed. If he were alive, he would most likely call for consideration towards Russia and the war in Ukraine. cognition of the strategy suggests that the expedition to Poland of a permanent garrison of U.S. forces will not origin American engagement in a direct clash with Russia, and Moscow on the planet map will always mean more than Warsaw. Although it sounds bitter, it is worth noting that the confrontational commitment against Russia in the name of Ukraine's defence will require a rational turn towards the peace process, the rejection of national megalomania and messianism, as well as the learning of prudence and prudence in the plan of perspectives closer and further global environment.
The challenge of the minute is first and foremost the restoration of the professionalism of Polish diplomacy. After a possible change of government, Poland could play an crucial function in rebuilding organization and normative governance in Europe after the end of the war in Ukraine. It would be worth returning to the diplomatic initiative for common security. To this end, opposition parties who pretend to take power after the regression period should come out with fresh ideas based on realism and a fresh European balance. Among the proposals could be a fresh organisation, the European safety Council, which would organise the Euro-Atlantic scene in terms of modern assurance building measures.
Preliminary initiatives are needed to rehabilitate war-torn societies and reconcilise between the disputed parties. Only specified a conversion of war energy will guarantee the fulfillment of Isaiah’s prophecy: “Then their swords will beat into plowshares, and their spears into sickles. Nation against nation will not lift up sword, they will no longer train themselves for war.”
Prof. Stanisław Bielen
photo. ria.novosti
Think Poland, No. 15-16 (9-16.04.201023)