Where to look for safe investments in the era of the worsening U.S.-China trade war? Comprehensive analysis of the Chinese market

Developed by Amber Zhang, China Mobile analyst

Investing in the shadow of geopolitics

Over the last fewer years, trade relations between the United States and China have become 1 of the key factors that form global financial markets. The duties, technological constraints and political rhetoric introduced by both parties make investors face a hard challenge – how to invest capital in order to simultaneously accomplish profits and minimise risks?

In this context, Chinese companies appear peculiarly interesting, which, although operating in a hard macroeconomic environment, can offer a comparatively safe shelter for capital. Amber Zhang, a China Mobile expert (the world's largest telecom operator), has shown that the key to success present is the appropriate selection of sectors and companies.

1. Why is the Chinese marketplace inactive worth mentioning?

Despite geopolitical tensions, China remains the world's second largest economy and their capital marketplace offers unique opportunities. respective crucial trends have been observed in fresh months:

(a) comparative marketplace opposition A-shares

Index CSI 300, bringing together the 300 largest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, shows greater stableness than the more speculative Hong Kong market. This is related to respective factors:

• Strong support from the alleged “National team” – government investment funds that actively intervene to stabilise the market.
• Smaller vulnerability to abroad capital – Western organization investors have limited access to A-shares, reducing their vulnerability to global temper swings.
• Beijing's economical policy – in the face of the economical downturn, the Chinese government introduces further fiscal and monetary incentives that support home companies.

(b) Defence vs. speculation

Under the current conditions, it is worth avoiding excessive vulnerability to highly valued technology companies, which are peculiarly delicate to changes in the global supply chain and export restrictions. Instead, Zhang recommends focusing on:

• Companies with unchangeable revenues and advanced dividends (e.g. telecommunications sector, banks).
• Internal market-oriented enterpriseswhich are little susceptible to fluctuations in global demand.

2. Dividends as a defence Strategy

Under falling interest rates (Chinese 10-year government bonds presently offer only ~1.6%) and expanding uncertainty, high dividend shares They become peculiarly attractive.

Example: China Mobile

• 60% telecommunications marketplace share China.
• Stable business model – telecommunications services stay essential regardless of the situation.
• Attractive dividend – historically, it paid shareholders about 5-7 percent per year.

In February 2025 Zhang pointed out that the telecommunications sector combined both growth potential (development 5G, cloud computing), as well as defensive. In the current geopolitical situation, this combination seems peculiarly valuable.

3. China capital marketplace – key facts

In order to better realize the specificities of investing in China, it is worth looking at the structure of the capital marketplace there:

Although the Chinese stock marketplace only has Okay. 30 years, its capitalization is already beyond USD 11 trillionWhich makes him the second largest in the planet after the United States.

4. Risks worth remembering

When investing in China, account should be taken of:

• Capital control – China continues to apply restrictions on currency movements, which may make it hard to pay profits.
• State Interventionism – The government can at any time introduce fresh regulations that will influence the valuation of companies.
• Political risk – Escalating tensions with the US can lead to further restrictions on trade and investment.

Is it worth investing in China in 2025?

Amber Zhang's conclusions propose that Yesbut subject to careful selection. The safest choice seems:

1. High dividend companies (e.g. China Mobile, banks).
2. A-sharessupported by government policy.
3. Defence sectorsless delicate to global shocks.

Of course, any investment decision should be preceded own analysis and taking into account individual hazard tolerance. This opinion does not constitute an investment advice but a review of current trends.

Source:

1. Amber Zhang, Baiguan (17.04.2025) – Chinese marketplace analysis.
2. China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) – Capital marketplace data.
3. Bloomberg, Reuters – index data and bonds.
4. World Federation of Exchanges – stock exchange statistics.

The material is informative and does not replace professional investment advice.

Leszek B. Glass

Email: [email protected]

© www.chiny24.com