As voters, we can decide in which constituency we vote. The elections to the Sejm ceased to be equal in Poland, 2 votes cast in Warsaw are worth as much as 1 vote thrown into the urn in Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship
The differences in vote between the 41 constituency are dramatic in Poland today. Apart from what organization we will vote for, it is very crucial where we will vote. In this article, I will urge voters, especially the largest cities, to consider a journey on election day to another constituency, which will increase the power of their electoral vote. This is not an effort to influence the result of elections undemocraticly. This is an attempt, though, to partially repair the electoral system, which present is unfair, especially for residents of Warsaw and surrounding areas, Poznań, Wrocław, Krakow, Gdańsk. I will besides urge Donald Tusk to compete in the elections in Kielce, not in Warsaw. This would be an election play that can give the Democratic side an additional 2-4 mandates and pays off all opposition parties, not just the Citizens' Platform.
41 WOŚP finals in 1 day
The election takes place on 1 day and we may think that the vote is akin to the final of the large Orchestra of Christmas Charity – it is about mobilization in that 1 day, and each gold thrown into a volunteer can increases the full score of the collection. The election is different. Voting takes place in 41 constituencies and these are events independent of each other. The only common component is exceeding the national electoral threshold of 5% or 8%. Apart from this 1 element, the counting of votes and the conversion into parliamentary seats takes place independently, in each of the 41 constituency. utilizing the analogy of the large Orchestra of Christmas Charity, it is like 1 day to do 41 rebounds in Poland, each for a different purpose. The success of each of them depends only on how much money it collects. How much money the remaining 40 rebounds rise doesn't matter. It's worth remembering. There is no crucial consequence of the election list in the voivodship, nor in the country, of 41 independent results in the constituency.
To realize the electoral strategy in Poland, the function of constituencies in my opinion is more crucial than the impact of converting votes on d’Hondt's mandates. The 1 in which the constituency gives our vote is our decision. Most of us vote at their place of residence, but the vote anywhere else in Poland is simple. You can collect a certificate of voting right from the municipality and vote in any election commission. You can besides add to the list of voters at the selected polling place in the country without leaving your home via the Internet.
Number of Members elected in the district
In the elections to the Sejm Poland is divided into 41 constituencies where 7 to 20 MPs are elected. There are 4 districts that coincide with the Świętokrzyskie, Podlaskie, Opolee and Lubuskie voivodships. In another voivodships, from 2 to six constituencies were created. The number of Members elected in the territory should be correlated with the number of residents of that district. This is required by the rule of equal voting as enshrined in the Constitution. According to the Electoral Code, the number of elected Members should be updated before each election, in line with the demographic change in our country. As a consequence of the Parliament's omissions of the last 3 terms of office, these updates have not been made and this year's elections will lead to drastic violations of the constitutional rule of equal voting. The population of territory 20 (districts around Warsaw) will be selected by 12 MPs, and the population of territory 6 (Lublin) will be selected by 15 MPs. According to the electoral code, 14 Members should be elected in both districts.
Read more about the rules for updating the number of parliamentary seats in constituency HERE
The electoral districts and the number of Members elected therein are described in the following map.
Figure 1. Number of parliamentary seats in constituency
Voting power
In the elections to the Sejm, election turnouts in individual districts are not applicable for counting tickets. On election day 2019, 1.38 million voters of territory 19 (Warsaw and abroad) elected 20 MPs. On the same day, 16 MPs elected 570,000 voters in territory no. 33 (Świętokrzyskie Province). The voting power in Warsaw was lower, as more voters were needed to gain 1 mandate. After dividing the number of voters by the number of Members elected in the district, we receive an average number of votes per parliamentary mandate. The Warsaw territory had an average of 69,1 1000 votes for 1 parliamentary mandate, in the Świętokrzyskie territory – 35,6 1000 votes. Comparing these 2 electoral districts, we can say that the vote given in Warsaw and abroad is twice as much as in Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship.
For the 2019 elections, the distribution of the voting power between the districts is shown in the following map.
Figure 2. Average number of votes (in thousands) per single parliamentary mandate in constituency in the 2019 Sejm election.
As you can see, in 2019 voters in Warsaw had the least electoral power. There were 69,1 1000 votes in territory 19 per MP, well above the national average, which amounted to 40,2 1000 in that election. This is simply a consequence of advanced election attendance in the capital, but besides the addition of votes cast abroad in this constituency. At 1.38 million votes, counted in territory no. 19, 312,000 are votes cast outside Poland. The inhabitants of Warsaw should consider voting in territory 18 – Siedlce. If 70 000 voters in Warsaw decide to vote in the Minsk district, which is part of territory 18, their organization will lose 1 mandate in Warsaw and will almost surely gain 2 seats in the Siedle district. For the inhabitants of Warsaw, it is very simple, it is adequate to go to Sulejówka. Apart from Warsaw, another places, where the districts with a large difference in voice, are Poznań district, Gdańsk district, Kraków district, Wroclaw territory and no. 20 territory – districts around Warsaw.
The vote in the constituency has a decisive impact on the final result of the election. To see this, let's summarize the election results for 10 districts where the voter power in 2019 was the largest – these are districts where the average vote for the mandate was 36,000 or less, the darkest shades of green on the map above. In these districts, the PiS won a full of 1,766 million votes and 59 seats. On average, he needed 29,9 1000 votes for 1 ticket. In these districts he won decisively with the Civic Coalition, which won a full of 890.5 1000 votes here. Now let's see what the election results looked like in 7 districts with the lowest vote power (43,000 votes per ticket or more). These are districts with large urban centres, where the Civic Coalition mostly won in 2019. In these districts, the Civic Coalition won a full of 1.733 million votes, but only 36 parliamentary seats. This required an average of 47.9,000 votes per mandate.
Summary
Understanding the differences in the vote cast in the various constituencies is simply a decisive component in making a good decision where it is worth voting in the elections on 15 October. We should avoid voting in the largest urban centres specified as Warsaw and districts around Warsaw, Gdańsk, Kraków, Poznań, Wrocław. At 50 km from these cities, you can find a polling station in another constituency, where our vote will be respective twelve percent higher. specified conduct will not be unfair to bend electoral rules. This will be a conscious effort to partially equalise the constitutional rule of equal voting, which present in many regions of Poland has ceased to apply.
Appeal to Donald Tusk and opposition voters
The Citizens' Coalition announced that the “one” on its Warsaw list would be Donald Tusk and that he would compete with Jarosław Kaczyński, who would win more votes. We know that in Warsaw specified a duel will be won by Donald Tusk, and as well gentlemen could compete in the competition, who runs faster at any distance or just who is taller. What is dangerous about this duel is that, as with the 4 June march, Donald Tusk can attract opposition voters from another constituency to Warsaw. This would be fatal for the overall consequence of the election, due to the fact that in the capital the vote is the smallest (69,1,000 votes for the 2019 mandate).
W Warsaw all candidate of the Civic Coalition placed in number 1 position on the list will win more votes than Jarosław Kaczyński, it is simply a pity to affect Donald Tusk. Donald Tusk's candidacy as “one” in territory 33 – Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship would have a much greater impact on the result of the election. This is the second largest constituency in Poland, where 16 seats are available. These tickets are much easier than in Warsaw. In 2019, an average of 35.6 1000 voters, twice as much as in Warsaw.
What would the consequence of the election look like if Donald Tusk had attracted 140 1000 voters from another electoral districts, including those with the smallest vote – Kraków, Warsaw, Podwarszawskie counties (district 20), Częstochowa, Łódź, Bielsko Biała. The Citizens' Coalition would gain 4 additional parliamentary mandates, possibly losing a full of 1-2 mandates in another districts. most likely Donald Tusk would win a duel for the number of votes won with Zbigniew Ziobro, the electoral “one” of the United Right in this district. Only in these elections the most crucial are the individual duels of the election leaders of the letter, any method that more effectively converts election votes into tickets. From this point of view, Warsaw is the worst place to launch Donald Tusk.
This is now an appeal to the opposition voters – do not look at who is the ‘one’ in which constituency. If you live in a territory where the vote is advanced (36 1000 votes for the 2019 mandate or less) vote at your polling place. If the vote is low in your constituency (43 1000 votes per mandate in 2019 or more) choose a constituency where the vote is comparatively higher (green districts on the map with an average number of votes per parliamentary mandate). I hope that any people will take these recommendations into account on election day and decide to vote in the neighbouring constituency. I'm certain it'll be worth the vote 2-4 hours alternatively of half an hour. This could translate into an additional 2-4 mandates for the democratic opposition on a national scale.
Finally, a remark on the Confederacy. This is the organization that in 2019 felt most severely how our electoral strategy works. Over 1.2 million votes translated into only 11 parliamentary seats. I'm afraid that in their election staff, gentlemen with Excel have long counted in which districts you can get tickets cheaper at the expense of voting. The voters of the democratic side should besides start to benefit from this knowledge.
In my calculations, I utilized the 2019 election results. Disparities in the volume of voice between districts over the last 4 years have grown. Residents in the largest cities have arrived. The fastest arrival in Poland is in territory 20 – districts around Warsaw.
