In 2019, the European Green Deal initiated the process of transforming the EU economy towards achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Legislative changes have emerged in the areas of energy, transport, industry, agriculture, investment financing and broadly understood reporting on the sustainability of the company. Both the European Commission and the European Parliament have started legislative work on different fronts in parallel. The proposals prepared were the subject of many negotiations with representatives of stakeholders. As a consequence of multilateral arrangements, any of the provisions have been softened, any have not been specified, with the endorsement that their item will take place at the level of the regulations and any of the proposals have been withdrawn in general. The European Commission and the European Parliament besides failed to close the key decision-making processes before the European Parliament elections in 2024, which adversely affected the European economy. In many sectors, the financial impact of EU law on economical activity is presently hard to assess. In turn, the deficiency of transparency at the level of their implementation and the crucial impact of national political lobbying at the phase of the preparation of the regulations implementing the individual directives make an unstable situation in which companies are uncertain where (in which country) and in what (technology, machinery, equipment, infrastructure) they invest and what they will gotta face (legal and administrative obligations, additional indirect costs not arising from the first business activity, etc.) to guarantee compliance.
In October 2023, the European border price adjustment mechanism, including CO emissions, entered into force as part of the "Got at 55" package (related to at least 55% simplification mark in the European Union by 2030).2 – CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism). During a transitional period which runs until December 2025, importers or indirect customs representatives shall study quarterly, including information on goods covered by CBAM (cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen). In the next phase, operators of installations outside the European Union producing these goods will gotta enter data on their installations and emissions into the European registry of CBAM.
The gradual introduction of CBAM coincides with the withdrawal of the allocation of free allowances under the EU ETS. crucial changes in the current strategy concern, inter alia, the simplification of emissions limits for sectors covered by the EU ETS by 62% by 2030 (compared to 2005 levels) and the simplification of the full number of allowances issued in the EU each year under this strategy – from 2024 to 2027 – by 4.3% per year and from 2028 – by 4.4% per year. This means that any industries will gotta carry out a green transition in the coming years or anticipate an increase in the cost of their activities. In order to encourage emanation reductions in the road transport and construction sectors not yet covered by the EU ETS, a parallel emissions trading strategy (EU ETS2) is being created for fuels incinerated in those sectors, which will apply from 2027. Those paying the excise work on energy and at the same time subject to the EU ETS2 should waive the allowances for their confirmed emissions corresponding to the quantities of fuels they have placed on the market. The full number of allowances issued under the EU ETS2 will be reduced annually by 5.10% after its launch and by 5.38% per year from 2028. These changes are intended, on the 1 hand, to aid the European economy to carry out the essential climate change and, on the another hand, to prevent the alleged carbon leakage, that is, bringing the production of certain goods to countries outside the European Union which apply little restrictive restrictions.
The gradual introduction of CBAM coincides with the withdrawal of the allocation of free allowances under the EU ETS. A parallel Emissions Trading strategy (EU ETS2) is besides being established for fuels consumed in road transport and construction. These changes are intended, on the 1 hand, to aid the European economy to carry out the essential climate change and, on the another hand, to prevent the alleged carbon leakage, that is, bringing the production of certain goods to countries outside the European Union which apply little restrictive restrictions.
In Poland, these regulations have a crucial impact on the future of industries: cement, chemical, processing of iron metals and non-ferrous metals, in which the usage of conventional fuels (e.g. gas and coke) is crucial for ensuring the stableness of production processes. However, the way of their transformation is not always possible. Green electricity or green hydrogen solutions will not work in technological and/or economical terms everywhere. The increase in the cost of import or production in Poland of certain natural materials and semi-finished products can consequence in a failure of competitiveness of plants on the global marketplace and the gradual disappearance of dense processing manufacture in our country. In turn, covering the road transport sector with additional costs is peculiarly crucial for Poland as a supplier country in the European supply chains. all week thousands of trucks from Polish logistics companies supply semi-finished products and products to plants in Germany, Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands or Scandinavian countries. In view of the global companies' drive to reduce the carbon footprint of their end products, 2 scenarios can be envisaged: the anticipation that suppliers will place their plants closer to the customer's main plants, thus reducing transport; the anticipation that logistics companies will equip themselves with a fleet of environmentally friendly vehicles (electrical or hydrogen powered) and will benefit more from rail transport. The challenge is to invest both in the infrastructure for loading trucks along motorways and to supply the required capacity for freight trains on railway lines connecting Poland to Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
From the position of the planet economy, 2022 will be remembered not only as the minute erstwhile Russia began a full-scale war with Ukraine – but besides as a period during which it powerfully accelerated the process of developing fresh planet economical governance, based on the BRICS agreement (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). They presently represent 35% of global GDP and 45% of the world's population, and the G7 countries (France, Japan, Canada, Germany, the United States, Britain, Italy) represent 30% of global GDP and 10% of the world's population. After joining BRICS in 2024 countries specified as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United arabian Emirates, another 40 countries showed interest in membership in this global arrangement (which besides received a fresh name: BRICS+). Russia, China and Iran share interests, straight and indirectly, in connection with the war in Ukraine and the mediate East. In addition, the mediate State is trying to become the leader of the BRICS+ system. India and Brazil, on the another hand, would like to set their own little aggressive course towards Western countries and do not full accept China's strong global position. To date, the European Union has conducted trade negotiations (outside the BRICS+ Agreement) with Brazil, India and South Africa.1. However, the negotiating position of the European Union, under the force of the mediate State, will become weaker. Here, for example, it is worth pointing out the construction of a port in Peru, which is intended to guarantee easy transport of goods from China to the countries of South America.
Both Brazil and India, in consequence to their civilizational aspirations, request circumstantial technological solutions to strengthen and improve their national production facilities. Poland should monitor this situation and, above all, usage its assets in pharmaceutical, chemical, mechanical and agricultural industries to make economical relations with these countries. In consequence to this challenge, the Polish Investment and Trade Agency (PAIiIZ) supports Polish exporters, organizing webinars, commercial missions and networking. It is crucial to consider how to step up relations with these countries, given that more and more commercial transactions will take place within the BRICS+ block over the next 5 years (perhaps little and little with players outside this arrangement). Can Brazil and India become hubs for Polish companies to build future relations with another countries under BRICS+?
Both Brazil and India, in consequence to their civilizational aspirations, request circumstantial technological solutions to strengthen and improve their national production facilities. It is so crucial to consider how to step up relations with the 2 countries, given that more and more commercial transactions will take place within the BRICS+ block over the next 5 years.
BRICS+ countries are crucial exporters of oil and natural materials. The importance of any natural materials grows due to their usage in many low-carbon technologies specified as photovoltaic panels (aluminium, silver, copper, silicon), wind turbines (aluminium, copper, nickel) and electrical vehicles (cobalt, copper, lithium, manganese). Not only China, as part of the "Made in China 2025" strategy, is trying to usage its position in natural materials to produce end products for both interior and global leadership. another BRICS+ countries besides analyse how to usage their own possible to accomplish a suitable position in lower production processes of global importance. In 2022 a partnership for mineral safety was established under the aegis of the European Union and the United States to guarantee a appropriate counterbalance to this situation. Minerals safety Partnership), which initially included countries specified as Australia, Estonia, Finland, France, India, Japan, Canada, Germany, Norway, Republic of Korea, Sweden, large Britain, Italy and in 2024 also: Argentina, Ecuador, Philippines, Greenland, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Namibia, Peru, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominican Republic, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Zambia. Poland is among them through the European Commission, but is not straight active as a member. This partnership aims to accelerate the improvement of diverse and sustainable mineral supply chains of critical importance through cooperation with the governments of these countries and with their manufacture to pool resources for strategical projects.
In 2024, the European Parliament adopted a regulation establishing a framework for safe and sustainable supply of critical natural materials. This concerns all strategical natural materials and any another critical natural materials of major importance to the European Union economy as a whole, where there is simply a advanced hazard of supply disruption, which could distort competition and lead to fragmentation of the interior market. Finally, associate States are to increase their capacity to process these natural materials, to get intermediates based on them and to recover natural materials from waste and to recycle them. For products containing critical natural materials, as for packaging or vehicles, the European Commission will be able to set minimum requirements for the anticipation of recycling and the content of natural materials recovered in the product.2. crucial aspects are: repeatability of the quality of recovered natural materials, predictability of their supply and availability – at a competitive price and lowest possible technologically and logistically, carbon footprint. There is an urgent request for a circular table on this subject involving stakeholders of all parties. Current initiatives, including grants for the modernisation of recovery and recycling installations, alternatively keep status quo. A fragmented strategy and uncertain legal framework make more investment highly risky. This can lead to a situation where we will gotta import recovered natural materials, which translates into additional transport costs and an adverse carbon footprint.
By unfavourable environmental indicators, suppliers from Poland can be excluded from the supply chains of global companies. Against the background of expanding administrative and environmental requirements, there are besides expanding inequalities in the market. For example, as a consequence of the signing of a free trade agreement between the European Union and the countries of South America, there is simply a hazard that we will receive agricultural crops utilizing chemicals banned in Europe.
Changes to the rules of play in the European marketplace as a consequence of legal and political decisions and the global marketplace as a consequence of economical and political decisions will affect energy-intensive sectors, based on imported materials, powerfully linked to global supply chains3. Companies in these sectors will gotta go through deep energy, water and natural materials transformation. They must have access to inexpensive green energy, to natural materials – including recycled products at the end of the life cycle – and semi-finished products close to the place of production (the goal of minimising the carbon footprint), as well as to low-carbon means of transport, in order to scope customers both in Poland and abroad. 1 should be aware that for any product groups production in Poland is slow becoming unprofitable. We are becoming little competitive due to the carbon footprint of the intermediate or product, resulting from an unfavorable energy mix, inactive based on conventional fuels. Even if we defend ourselves pricelessly, the unfavorable environmental indicators of suppliers from Poland may exclude them from the supply chains of global companies. Therefore, in order to get backing for further investment projects, companies must show an ecologically liable low carbon footprint, including the practice of utilizing energy from renewable sources. Against the background of the expanding administrative and environmental requirements imposed on producers operating in the European Union, there are at the same time expanding inequalities in the market. For example, there is simply a hazard that, as a consequence of the signing of the free trade agreement between the European Union and the countries of South America, we will receive agricultural crops, where production has been intensively utilized for chemicals prohibited in Europe. China, on the another hand, will proceed its strategy to become the planet leader in circumstantial product groups, providing public aid to its businesses so that they can last the price war in Europe, which we will witness between 2026 and 2030.
In the discussion on the future of the Polish economy in the European Union, and its drivers, you can rapidly fall into the trap of identifying key sectors or leading techniques. Meanwhile, among the leaders of the Polish economy, present we separate companies from various sectors, which are focused on maintaining a leading position on the home marketplace and aspire to be a positively perceived player on the global stage. More and more companies with Polish capital have a chance to become a leader in the niches of the global market. They are active in pharmaceutical, chemical, recycling, construction, space, energy and food sectors, as well as in the following sectors: IT, development, medical services or financial services. Thousands of Polish entrepreneurs and managers are aware that nowadays they request to leave their comfort region and invest in investigation and development, make a network of cooperation with partners, make acquisitions and acquisitions in order to accomplish a scale and more cost-effectiveness. Our companies are not limited to buying companies from another European Union countries, but are expanding their activity internationally, taking over entities on the American and Asian continents. Their appetite for improvement will require crucial financial resources and the readiness of banks and another financial institutions to support these processes.
At the same time, they cannot sleep the right time to diversify sources of capital raising. Unfortunately, the Polish capital marketplace is inactive mediocre in resources and alternatively conservative erstwhile it comes to making courageous investment decisions. If we want to take part in a global technological race in the pharmaceutical, space, natural materials manufacture and we request immense investments on the ladder towards a group of European leaders. This requires redesigning the Polish R & D backing system. We request to spend more money on strategical projects. We so request a continuous and transparent dialog between the economical environment, ministries and government agencies to make an optimal strategy. It is besides essential to improve the marketing of products in Poland, specified as medical products or construction products. It should be in our common interest, after the completion of the investigation and improvement work, to verify, certify or approve innovative products sufficiently rapidly so that they receive the papers essential to let them to be marketed. Extending this process by all period is an activity to the detriment of the Polish innovator.
Unfortunately, the Polish capital marketplace is inactive mediocre in resources and alternatively conservative erstwhile it comes to making courageous investment decisions. We request to spend more money on strategical projects. We so request a continuous and transparent dialog between the economical environment, ministries and government agencies to make an optimal strategy. It is besides essential to improve the marketing authorisation system.
It should be noted that among the market-leading companies4 The word “group” is increasingly appearing. Consolidation takes place not only in the public sector but besides in the private sector. In view of BRICS+ and China's actions, it will be essential to proceed the process of creating and strengthening groups in Poland, in which current home competitors agree specializations. In this way they will halt fighting about a tiny part of the planet marketplace cake, finishing each another in the Polish backyard. akin consolidation should besides take place in the area of micro and tiny enterprises' support by ministries, government agencies and local governments. Over the years, this strategy has been characterised by duplication at national and regional level, cannibalisation of initiatives targeting the same mark groups and mediocre quality. Attempts to make selection by introducing accreditation systems for business environment institutions have only been concrete for subsequent years status quo. On the another hand, representatives of micro and tiny enterprises have limited time to decently familiarise themselves with the immense offer of aid services and to identify circumstantial administrative requirements for circumstantial forms of support. Any changes shall be financed from own resources or with comparatively small public aid. However, there are no conditions for considering courageous, possibly more risky, paths of development. Poland has technology parks, incubators, industrial parks or office buildings in city centres that would possibly connect micro- and tiny enterprises. In the era of online platforms, respective to hundreds of groups of micro- and tiny enterprises combining their possible and competences could besides be created on this road, with greater cost efficiency, productivity and impact strength to exploit marketplace opportunities in Poland and in the world.
Special attention will be paid to sectors that emerged in Poland in the 1990s and benefited from state aid based on Act of 20 October 1994 on peculiar economical Zones. The first investments came during the period erstwhile Poland was low-cost country. After that, reinvestments took place in the same factories, as well as those with a more advanced production or service nature. However, will the branches of global companies inactive be able to convince their management that Poland is the right country to invest and conduct business? In the case of composite products, possibly yes. However, for manufacturers of semi-finished products or products with low complexity, the cost of employment, energy and transport makes production in Poland little profitable. It is so essential to measure whether the improvement dynamics of another companies in the individual voivodships is large adequate to affect workers who, due to restructuring or closure of factories, will appear on the labour marketplace from 2027 to 2030.
As I mentioned earlier, in order to be a associate in a technological race – not just a recipient of global solutions – it is essential to allocate billions of PLN for investigation and improvement programmes in a thoughtful way, not dispersed. In the coming years Poland will be the beneficiary of the largest European fund pool in its history. I hope that any of them will be allocated to the improvement of universities to encourage business people to start a career in science, and to update and adapt to the marketplace situation of curricula, especially in method directions. At present, universities are filling in human resources deficits to the degree that their resources and opportunities let them to do so, thereby gradually decreasing the quality of teaching. However, it is good that they have already introduced fresh directions to the needs of the marketplace in the areas of artificial intelligence, data analytics, 3D printing engineering, applied chemistry, applied physics or fresh energy sources. Polish companies, which are presently conquering the planet based on AI or space technologies, have access to decently educated and prepared personnel. A downside is the underperformance of both universities and investigation institutes in creating their function as a partner for the economy. This is due, among another things, to the financial negligence of the erstwhile government in fresh years to guarantee the essential continuity in investigation work and to the detention of entrepreneurial scientists on board.
In the coming years Poland will be the beneficiary of the largest European fund pool in its history. I hope that any of them will be allocated to the improvement of universities to encourage business people to start a career in science, and to update and adapt to the marketplace situation of curricula, especially in method directions.
The European Union, located between China, whose destiny depends, inter alia, on the success of the "Made in China 2025" strategy, and the United States, in which the fresh president plans to implement its policy under the "America First" flag, will gotta revise its fresh economical model (as far as it is inactive based on the foundations of Green Deal). The current realities are diametrically different from the situation in 2016-2019 erstwhile the Green Deal thought took shape. However, it is hard to search unity in a European camp, where countries specified as Italy, France and Germany effort to defend their economical interests by lobbying, sometimes to the detriment of Poland. erstwhile national interests prevail over Community interests in the EU, the associate States in which China will invest will win. The Polish government must be aware of the interaction between the Polish and German economies, as well as the function of our suppliers in the supply chains related to Italy and France. Decisions leading to a concentration of supplier activities closer to final product factories or mark markets (as set out in the rules local for local (return to narrow regionalisation) or climate neutrality) will hit the Polish economy twice. We must not forget that in the case of full automation of factories and green logistics it is not the cost of labour, but the cost of energy will count.
At government level, a group of actions should be launched (task force) to make a cooperation programme with India, and within the Polish Investment and Trade Agency make a permanent platform for cooperation with Polish industry: medical, food processing, agricultural, green chemistry and recycling technologies, in order to strengthen our presence in India. We should besides be more present in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa.
Poland inactive lacks a comprehensive approach to the integration of foreigners. Yes, we have succeeded in bringing more than 2 million Ukrainian citizens into the economy in a short time. However, more and more people from another parts of the planet come to Poland – whether on temporary contracts or having exile status. They must find themselves in a fresh country, acquainted with customs and language. quite a few them will stay here for a while. To avoid marginalisation and gain fresh competences, they will gotta participate in various trainings, which evidently requires language skills. Although any Chinese investments have been temporarily halted, in the next decade we must be prepared for an influx of between 100,000 and 500,000 Chinese who will work in our factories or run business. In the mediate State, 1.5 million university graduates postgraduate each year complete method studies. Sooner or later they will go to Poland – whether in cooperation with Chinese suppliers, or as a consequence of acquisition of companies in Poland. That is why we request to make an appropriate programme for the integration of immigrants and implement a number of actions promoting openness to another cultures at local level. The employment of more foreigners in companies besides requires a review of the government on wellness and safety at work in the context of communication in a language understandable to the worker. Compared to the situation 25 years ago, erstwhile immigrants did not come to Poland so willingly and abundantly, present we are a more diverse cultural society, which should be utilized in a affirmative way in global relations.
We must bet on: education; capital ready to take investment risks in advanced technologies; inexpensive green energy; well-connected rail transport, global logistics; electrical vehicle charging infrastructure; good quality of life in cities and in agrarian areas. A imagination and strategy and their consistent implementation at both political and economical levels are needed, based on transparent dialog with public and private stakeholders.
The position of the Polish economy in the European Union will besides be determined by the velocity of transformation in the energy and railway sectors, where circular table talks are needed between public and private players, in order to specify a common strategy in the area of critical and supporting infrastructure. There is besides a request for dialog between the central level and stakeholders in individual voivodships in the context of the construction of the hydrogen economy. Polish Hydrogen strategy to 2030 with a view to 2040 and strategies developed at regional level are in stalemate. For any sectors, the conversion of gas to green hydrogen is the only option (or alternatively a necessity) to stay in play and avoid the advanced costs of issuing charges. A comprehensive approach to energy safety besides requires the inclusion in these discussions of the waste management sector, which could shortly be found between a hammer and anvil, erstwhile the European government on the recycling of products at the end of their life cycle is approved and re-entering recyclates into circulation in the value chains in which they were originally applied (recycle content in products).
Poland is present the sixth largest economy in the European Union. In order to keep this position, we request to focus on: education, including the provision of decently qualified staff in secondary and higher schools; access to capital ready to take on investment risks in advanced technologies; inexpensive green energy; well-connected rail transport, global logistics; electrical vehicle charging infrastructure; good quality of life in cities and in agrarian areas. A imagination and strategy and their consistent implementation at both political and economical levels are needed, based on transparent dialog with public and private stakeholders.
1 The negotiations on the EU-Brazil line on the free-handel agreement with the Mercosur countries (South American economical and political bloc) are at the final phase after 25 years. In turn, the agreement on a free trade agreement with India is ongoing; there is no compatibility in terms, among others, of social, environmental, data safety and access to the public procurement market. Since 2000, the EU and South Africa have been bound by the free trade agreement, making South Africa the largest trading partner of the European Union in Africa.
2 This means that a national strategy for collecting and recycling waste and recovering natural materials and preparing them for re-use in value chains will play an crucial function for an expanding number of sectors and producers.
3 These are mainly: the manufacture of paper and paper products; the manufacture and processing of coke and petroleum refining products; the production of chemicals and chemical products; the production of basic pharmaceutical substances and pharmaceuticals and another pharmaceutical products; the manufacture of rubber and plastic products; the manufacture of non-metallic mineral products (glass, ceramics, cement, lime, plaster); the production of metals; the production of motor vehicles and another transport equipment; the production of furniture and the production of electrical appliances.
4 For example, among companies ranked in the rankings: “List 500” of the diary “Rzeczpospolita”, “100 largest private companies” of the magazine “Forbes”, “Business Newspapers” of the diary “Business Puls” or another specified regional rankings.
