In Europe and the US, political discussions are ongoing regarding possible amounts of aid to Ukraine. In my opinion, these discussions can be helped by a clear imagination of the planet in line with 2 alternate scenarios: Ukrainian defeat and Ukrainian victory. What benefits and losses will western countries gotta face? It is worth analyzing specified possible outcomes.
What if Ukraine will lose?
Imagine the planet after Ukraine’s defeat.
First, this would be a clear signal to all aggressive regimes around the globe: you can do whatever you want. The rule-based and agreement-based planet order is over. The planet would go back to how it was 100 years ago, with all the efforts and victims related to the Second planet War wasted. China will usage force to grow its influence, which could consequence in a fresh planet war. But besides smaller autocracies across the planet will attack their weaker neighbours like Saddam Hussein attacked Kuwait. North Korean forces will appear more in conflicts across the globe. Piracy, blocking trade routes and cutting communications will be a average practice. Commodity prices will go up, insurance rates will be sky high, and free trade will be forced to shrink.
Second, it would be clear that only atomic weapons can halt an aggressor. All long-term efforts to halt proliferation will be wasted. atomic blackmail will be the norm. The planet will become a much more insecure place, and the probability of atomic accidents will only grow.
Third, the fall of Ukraine will make a fresh wave of refugees much bigger than before. This will undermine the European economy and social cohesion.
Fourth, Russia will not stop. A successful offensive in Ukraine will strengthen it with Ukrainian resources, including local people drafted into the Russian army. Russia will go forward, to the Baltics (as described by the General Richard Shirreff) and Poland, to the Caucasus and Central Asia, restoring its empire as Putin promised. Russia will more actively penetrate elections in the free world; grow its media influence, cyber-attacks and secret operations; and weaponize fuel and grain. fresh hot spots will appear in Africa, the mediate East and Asia, possibly 1 day even in the western hemisphere. Those westerners who are afraid of escalation will see their biggest fears become reality.
Fifth, very most likely the Russian economy will not last a further escalation in its aggressive wars. The collapse of the Russian economy will produce even more issues like the proliferation of atomic weapons; humanitarian catastrophes specified as exile crises; the growth of extremist Islam; and the further strengthening of China with Russian resources.
Sixth, the efficiency of dictatorship and weakness of democracy will be proven for all to see. Strong hands and Russia sympathizers will come to power in many countries, including Europe. European unity will be over as well as European dreams for sustainable peace. EU-US relations will besides deteriorate greatly.
An interim remark
Some people in the West believe that it is possible to end the war without a Ukrainian defeat or triumph – in sports language, a draw. However, war is not a sport. The cessation of hostilities without defeat or triumph is only a respite for Russia, which will not quit its goals.
I gotta note that Ukraine’s defeat does not necessarily mean that Russian forces would be able to break through the Ukrainian defence. This could be a consequence of a long war of attrition, making Ukraine scorched earth unfit for life and leading to the collapse of the country’s energy strategy and economy. It could besides be a consequence of an imposed ceasefire, which will be utilized by Russia and its allies to accumulate adequate missiles to beat Ukraine’s air defence and annihilate its government. All the indecisions that we have observed throughout the last fewer years could yet end in Ukraine’s defeat. Time matters. Ukrainian resilience is large but not unlimited.
What if Ukraine will win?
Imagine the planet after Russia’s defeat.
First, this would offer a clear signal that the planet order based on rules and agreements is sustainable. China and another aggressive regimes will reduce their appetite for provocation. The safety of global routes and communications will be ensured. planet energy and food safety will be strengthened. planet leaders, now focused on security, will be able to pay more attention to another key problems of humankind.
Second, a wider war in Europe will be prevented without any drop of American or European blood. European unity will be saved. Investments to the borderland countries will be saved and secured for the future.
Third, the full authoritarian axis will be weakened. Tensions throughout the planet will decrease primarily in key areas of Russian activity: the mediate East and Africa. All the dictators, terrorist regimes and organizations, private military companies, hacker groups and another destructive forces will lose support.
Fourth, Moscow’s defeat will bring affirmative effects to the peoples of the Russian Federation, as it has always been the case in the Russian/Soviet empire’s history. Defeat becomes the basis for reforms. As the European Parliament Resolution 2024/2579 from February 29th 2024 declares, “Ukraine’s decisive triumph may lead to genuine changes in the strategy in the Russian Federation, in peculiar deimperialisation, decolonisation and refederalisation, all of which are essential conditions for the establishment of democracy in Russia.” The Russian Federation will return to the planet arena as a liable partner.
Fifth, there will be 1 little pretender erstwhile it comes to the function of global superpower, which will dramatically decrease global risks. 2 superpowers are more likely to come to an agreement than three, as the past of the end of the Cold War proves. The absence of a resurgent Russia would be profitable for both the US and China. Thus, this becomes a good point for a possible agreement or knowing between 2 superpowers.
Sixth, global trade will be more profitable for the West. Nobody will weaponize fuel or another goods. Western companies will take over the Russian part of any key markets like military equipment due to the fact that a Russian defeat will undermine its function as a maker of modern weaponry. simply put, a Russian defeat would be profitable.
Seventh, innovations brought by this war could be utilized to rethink modern warfare, as well as rearm and retrain NATO forces to make them ready for the next generation of challenges. For the first time in modern history, generals can prepare for the next war, not the last one, without losing the lives of their soldiers. besides the safety balance between Europe and the US will improve significantly.
Conclusion
Today, western elites are afraid of escalation and so they wait and make half-hearted decisions. The reality is that escalation is happening gradually anyway as a consequence of these (in)decisions.
The planet will never be like it was before Russia’s full-scale unprovoked war against Ukraine. It is not possible to go back to business as usual. Now we are coming to a turning point: Ukraine’s defeat or Russia’s defeat. A prolonged war of attrition will lead to Ukraine’s defeat as well as increases in western expenses. The ceasefire which is essential for Moscow to rearm with the support of its allies will besides lead to Ukraine’s defeat. There is no way to avoid the choice. There is no way to postpone the choice to any point in the future. Time matters.
Support for Ukraine is not an expense but an investment: in global peace, in rearmament and innovations, and in free trade. Support for Ukraine not for “as long as it takes” but aimed at Ukraine’s triumph and Russia’s defeat is not only value-based, it is simply a rational choice based on many arguments.
Avoiding the future will only take us back to the past: to the hell of global disorder.
Valerii Pekar is simply a co-founder of the Nova Kraina Civic Platform, the author of 4 books, an adjunct prof. at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School and a erstwhile associate of the National improvement Council.
Please support New east Europe's crowdfunding campaign. Donate by clicking on the button below.
