We know the list of candidates in a 100 constituency to the legislature of Poland. I should not say this a small more than a period before the election, but even if a miracle occurs and we deprive the Law and Justice of the Sejm, the fragile majority of the opposition—even if the miracle is so crucial that the majority will be possible without a pact with the Confederate—will have not only Duda and Przylebska against each other, but besides the Senate. It's apparent present that the legislature must lose. How is that possible?
Our legislature and Losses “Senacy Pact” from 2019
Well, let's callback the vote 4 years ago, erstwhile the 3 opposition parties had a lead of about 5% of the votes over the Law and Justice, and yet they managed to give the Law and Justice a stand-alone power over the Sejm, and this happened thanks to the decision to take off 3 separate letters. It's D'Hondt. It's all been told. In the Senate, however, the vote is majority — and here the parties concluded a “pact”, sharing districts and agreeing not to put candidates against each other. We should have won if we had the advantage. And we won. 1 ticket for leverage. 5% of votes should give us 5 more tickets. In fact, this advantage should be even greater due to the fact that in 2019 we gave the PiS 10 constituency in which 3 opposition parties had an absolute advantage over the PiS (counting parliamentary votes in the same election committees). The PiS did not quit a single territory in which he supported. We should have won 61 tickets then. How come we didn't win them? And what does that mean for our chances in the legislature today?
In 2019, we gave 773 769 votes little than they were to 3 parliamentary candidates (in fact, it was a cabinet division of the surviving skin inactive a bear into organization pieces, and not a pact) which meant losing almost 9% of all opposition votes. In spite of this, however, as Simon Hołownia in peculiar persistently repeated, it was not the effect of discouragement of the “artificial coalition”. Something completely different happened.
They decided “third parties”
The “Pact” was expected — and then present — to face one-on-one: the candidate of the “unified opposition” was expected to collide with the PiS candidate. In fact, this play went in only 40 out of 100 districts. If you number the votes here, in these districts, it turns out that the candidates for the “Pact” did not lose any parliamentary voters of the 3 opposition parties. On average, they received almost 6% more votes in these districts than in opposition parties in the same committees. It is interesting to ask who the votes were — who were supported by these additional voters of opposition legislature candidates in the simultaneous parliamentary vote. Well, there was no 1 else in this election — mostly Confederate voters and smaller creations specified as partyless localities, Liroy people and similar. Those facing specified a choice voted for opposition much more than for PiS.
Of these 40 districts, the opposition won 27 tickets. Without revelation, there was not 1 among them in which the Law and Justice had the advantage, counting the votes of the Sejm. 13 of these confrontations we lost due to the fact that we had to. They were PiS territories for us not to be taken. In the remaining 58 districts (I do not number 2 in which the opposition has not issued any candidacy) apart from candidates of the Law and the “Pact” appeared “third parties”. There were 80 of them all over the country. I was 1 of them, but I was unusual. They were mostly people of utmost right. These people didn't take the votes from the PiS candidates. They took it almost exclusively from candidates of the “Pact”. On average, in these 58 districts, candidates for the “Pact” lost almost 18% of the votes cast in the parliamentary vote to 3 opposition parties! This is where we lost the 10 tickets. We won them in 58 districts and confrontations with the Law and Justice and “third parties” 23 tickets, although we had the advantage in 34, and in 24 it exceeded 50% of the support!
One-on-one confrontation will take place present in only 19 legislature districts!
And that determines it. These 19 districts are blue spots on the map in the picture. It can be hoped that polarization will besides take the legal voters of political plankton and “third parties” will take distant our votes little than then. Maybe. possibly we won't lose 18% of the vote like that. How much do we lose? 9%? It won't change much. That's erstwhile we won by a hair. We have no chance to win tonight. Of course, as then, we won't win in each one-by-one district, although it seems about that we will win in the majority. Similarly, not in all territory with “third parties” we must lose. I'm certain we'll win in the Tri-City and there's more like that. Michał Kamiński in 1 of the sub-warszawski districts should have managed even without the votes of the Unpartisan Local Governments and Confederates, whose votes he took as part of the “favor for unification” 4 years ago. For example, we can capture Olsztyn, where the PiS is presenting a candidacy against the Old Town Lidia, and at the same time the Confederate competes there. The analysis of the odds in individual districts is inactive to be done, but unfortunately it can only bring a somewhat more precise description of the size of the failure... erstwhile the “Senatic Pact” was announced, it was said that its mark were 63 districts. I wonder if anyone remembers that today.
I am so sorry to compose about all of this without question and to demobilize us before a conflict in which good religion is of large importance. But this religion cannot give us victory. We should be aware of that. We should besides realize why this happened. The legislature Pact should include not 3 parties in Warsaw, but all claiming in each of the 100 constituency. I suggested this due to the fact that although it was highly difficult, it was absolutely necessary. I worked on this by talking to pretentious rights and another people, taking on and acquainted to NGO’s function as the organizer of a platform missing the dramatic “first round” of elections, taking on all the stink and the burden of work for “packaging with the devil”. I received quite a few declarations of participation in specified a constructed agreement, the goal of which was to put in place a suitable candidate against the Law and Justice. For all those who are so “packed” it was clear that any transparent and democratic procedure of “first tour” must end with the triumph of opposition organization candidates. Even today's polls show it. However, these proposals and these efforts have been ignored by all participants of today's “Senatic Pact”. We will see the effect after October 15 — I bet everything that present my warnings will not believe anyone.
Walkover
I've written about my efforts many times. This was read by a very limited group of people, but organization decision makers learned the content of the diagnosis and offers. It all looks like you're giving up the field by fighting. Like the 2019 election. Since I could number D’Hondt's calculator virtually all the pre-election polls at the time to show that each of them meant a second word of the Law and Justice, the more the opposition's election staff had to realize this.
I was announcing a run for the Senate. There's no fake conversation here. erstwhile akin announcements came from Giertych and Petru, Boris Budka publically responded to them with a proposal to march to the “Eastern Front” and fight with the Law and Justice where you truly gotta fight, not just take your own, as in Warsaw. erstwhile we heard this, we decided — citizens of Poland — to effort a start in the 47th legislature district. It includes Garwolinski, Minsk, and Hungarian counties — PiS has always won here in cugels. Also, no 1 from any organization answered this offer with a word. In “the Pact” this territory fell to the Left. But the PKW has not registered any opposition candidate here. The Law and Justice will face 1 against 1 with the Unpartisan Localities... Well, there wasn't much chance here anyway. But the walkover remains the walkover.
