Through Captain Arunas' binoculars, visibility is close to zero: “one kilometer, no more”.
Dense fog over Baltic Sea complicates patrol 50 Jotvingis sailors. Their mission aboard the command ship of the Lithuanian Navy: prevention of hybrid threats under Natovian Operation Baltic Sentry.
On the horizon, a large black figure emerges from the winter gray. The container ship just left. Plaipeda, the 3rd largest city in Lithuania and home naval base.
— There is no request to check it out — he responded to our radio call earlier, says the captain. A massive ship disappears in the fog.
Military personnel shall ensure, off the coast of Lithuania, that no ship shows any threatening activity in their exclusive economical zone.
— It's like our backyard. If we feel he's in danger, it's bad for our people. Then we'll react. “The captain says by scanning the horizon with his eyes.
In search of suspicious ships
Russia's territorial waters are 40 km south. Exclave Rabbit, pressed between Lithuania and Poland, is home to parts of the Moscow Navy.
On this cold January morning shifts on board seem to have no end. After rotation, sailors rapidly retreat to the inside of the ship, where officers watch radar screens in search of suspicious ships.
If Jotvingis and another Lithuanian naval vessels stay on advanced alert, it is due to the fact that tensions in the Baltic Sea have reached historical levels.
Since a full invasion of Russia into Ukraine in 2022. and the subsequent expansion of NATO to Sweden and Finland these shallow waters became scene for hybrid war, with attacks powerfully suggesting Russian engagement.
“We are dealing with hybrid scenarios that were not on our radar a fewer years ago. Underwater infrastructure is the first target, says Adj. Giedrius Premeneckas.
The Baltic Sea bordering 9 countries is crossed by electrical and communication cables. All 4 incidents involving them over the past 3 years have been attributed to the Russian submarine fleet.
Mysterious events in the Baltic Sea
These ships, flying under abroad flags, transport hydrocarbons that fill Moscow's money. Ships — frequently ageing, poorly insured, and operating outside legal supervision — let Russia to circumvent Western oil sanctions.
The latest incidental occurred last Sunday, erstwhile the fiber-optic submarine connecting Ventspils in Latvia to the Swedish island of Gotland was damaged. Swedish authorities have stopped Michelis San, a bulk ship flying the Maltese flag.
A period earlier, on December 25, the power cable was cut. Estlink 2 connecting Finland and Estonia. The Finnish authorities reported that the Eagle S tanker was pulling its anchor over the seabed for 60 miles before it caught the cables. A tanker flying the flag of the Cook Islands has been described by customs officials as part of Russian ‘shadow float’.
A ship carrying oil and gas against global sanctions shall stay docked along the Finnish coast pending the result of the investigation. Fingrid, a Finnish state electricity operator, estimates that repairing the damaged cable may last until the end of July and cost tens of millions of euros.
On November 17, Lithuania besides fell victim to sabotage erstwhile a 218-kilometre BCS fibre cable connecting the Swedish island of Gotland to Lithuania was interrupted. Just a fewer hours later, at 4:04 a.m. the following day, the cable was besides damaged C-Lion1 connecting Helsinki in Finland with Rostock in Germany.
Since 2023, all Baltic countries but Russia have been members of NATO.
NATO activities
In consequence to the escalation of hybrid attacks, the leaders of the 8 alliance states in the region announced a set of safety measures, including an operation Baltic Sentry at the top of the Baltic Allies in Helsinki on 14 January. The goal is to halt future sabotage.
— Since the beginning of June, we have inspected over 300 tankers and boarded 7 of them," said Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal at a press conference at the summit.
Operation Baltic Sentry will deploy frigates, marine patrol aircraft and fleet of tiny sea drones.
On Jotvingis, the usage of 1 of these sea drones is crucial for underwater infrastructure inspection.
— It can go to a depth of 55 m, explains the commander, standing next to the launch boat. — Then, utilizing the sonar system, it scans the cables, passing them on to a circumstantial area.
When immersed in water, the torpedo-like device is controlled by a smartphone application. No harm to the cables located 50 m below the ship was detected that day.
"Can origin disaster"
In any operations, Jotvingis besides monitors the ‘shadow float’, although it does not board ships. “We follow them on the radar and then conduct visual inspection at sea. We question the captain and transmit all the information to the authorities, says Premeneckas.
These “powers” are NATO headquarters. A joint list of the North Atlantic Alliance and the EU has been developed to identify ships suspected of acting under the influence of the Kremlin.
— This is simply a peculiar list, common to the European Union and NATO associate States: a list of shadow floats. During each inspection, we check whether the ship is on the list, says the admiral. There are presently almost 100 ships on the list, although the actual fleet is believed to have hundreds of ships.
The hybrid war, led mainly by Moscow against the West, combines conventional military tactics with cyber attacks, disinformation, economical force and secret sabotage. Mark Galeotti, Russian safety specialist, described her as "political war by any means that is not adequate to wage an open war".
Premeneckas besides notes Environmental hazards created by outdated, poorly insured and barely held ships of the Russian fleet. “The Baltic is simply a limited sea, which means that a major oil spill can origin an ecological disaster,” he says.
“Every Russian operation will meet our answer”
On January 12, 3 German rescue ships escorted Eventin, carrying 99 000 tons of oil to prevent the spill.
Following this incident, German abroad Minister Annalena Baerbock condemned Russia for "threating European safety not only by war of aggression against Ukraine, but besides by defiled tankers".
Between 2022 and the end of 2024, Europe was almost targeted 60 hybrid attacks assigned to Russian intelligence agencies, mainly GRUs and FSB: from physical sabotage to cyber attacks and interference in elections.
— With these operations, Russia escalates its hybrid war in Europe, carrying out attacks on the ever-changing front," says Charlie Edwards, elder worker of the global Institute of strategical Studies in London.
On that day, no "shadow floats" vessels were detected on Jotvingis. But Captain Arunas remains relentless.
— all Russian operation will meet our response,” he says.
