Commentary by Sergei Piereslingin on current and future events
We proceed to discuss the deepening crisis.
There are no good events in the world. Let's effort to get any optimism out of it. As my favourite chess player, Tarras, utilized to say, “Where there are no good moves, there will always be bad ones.”
Let's talk about bad moves.
Let's start with the fact that the Americans are actually preparing for a land operation and it seems to be happening any day now. I fear that no 1 knows what the Americans are preparing for, including themselves, due to the fact that it is present that Trump has declared that he has reached an agreement with Iran and the war must end. On the another hand, the level of assurance in Donnie's speeches during the war is, in my opinion, close to zero, even in the United States, let alone another places. The comic thing is, Trump's announcement of the end of the war does not mean that Iranian rockets will no longer destruct the Iron Dome, which is inactive barely holding.
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And although Trump promises a land operation, he already says it will not aid countries that cannot get hydrocarbons due to the fact that the Strait of Ormuz is closed. There are besides the first risks associated with both the energy and food crisis.
Does Trump want to prolong the situation? And why would he want that?
First let's realize what's going on.
Fuel and petrol prices began to emergence rather rapidly in all non-oil producing countries. The situation is as follows. Remember erstwhile we discussed the food market, we said that it is in a zero-profit region and that the food reserves in commodity terms are very small. This marketplace is always a small undersaturated. Since food is sold comparatively cheaply, partially for political and social reasons, the marketplace remains at zero profitability. Consequently, since the burning of hydrocarbons is the basis of all activities in modern society – this besides applies to agriculture, at least due to the fact that the harvested yields request to be transported somewhere and imported fertilizers earlier – under current conditions food prices are beginning to emergence rapidly.
As prices rise, the volume of trade naturally falls. As a result, many food producers find production unprofitable. And now it is announced that the Netherlands, northern Germany to any extent, Norway to any extent, is beginning to experience any problems with fishing, due to the fact that the seiners(*) They consume quite a few diesel while for any reason no 1 switched to waste. They are forced to sale fish at prices dictated by the market, and fish are an excellent opportunity. As a result, fish production began to decline rapidly.
The same situation begins to make during the sowing period. Many farmers and large food producers say that seeding is unprofitable at current prices and so they will not do so. This concerns Europe, and to a large degree also, for example, Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
As always, the delicate point is Bangladesh. Remember erstwhile we said there was gonna be the first major famine? Bangladesh has very small or no financial reserves. As a result, Bangladesh argues that it is not yet entirely certain how to proceed agriculture. We are approaching a situation where sowing can be disrupted in a large part of the northern hemisphere. And given that the marketplace has already been in a alternatively unstable balance, this can lead to – it is hard to say whether it can be called hunger, but we can be almost certain that it will lead to a crucial increase in the share of food in household spending, which is simply a characteristic of the social crisis.
Unless Trump comes to an agreement with Hamas next day and opens the Ormuz Strait to the satisfaction of all. However, even this will not change many situations, as many oil refineries have burnt down in both Russia and the mediate East. Therefore, I think the price will stay advanced even in this case.
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Trump's situation. I gotta draw 1 very unpleasant conclusion for me. This is truly very hard for me, internally. I'm forced to do this, although at least for the last fewer months I've been hoping it wouldn't. What is happening in the planet now, that is, in Russia, the USA and Europe, is dictated again by globalists. And from this perspective, it must be said that the situation is rather favourable for them. They just meant hunger as a good way to regulation the world.
How does Trump play for globalists?That's an interesting question I don't know the answer to. 2 factors are most likely involved.
Let's see, for example, if we're talking about Russia – we'll talk about this later in more detail, but now a simple example – we know at least rather clearly who works for globalists in Russia: this is the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, now the Ministry of Digital improvement and Communications, and Roskomover, and of course Well, those large oligarchs who depend on Western markets. We know them.
I am not convinced that Trump clearly understands who works for the globalists in his party.
He understands that the Democratic organization is working for them, but it seems that the globalists have succeeded in regrouping and knowing that the Democrats will not aid them any time shortly and that they must look for another spheres of influence. And since the Republican organization traditionally was a organization of large industrial capital, they most likely found areas of influence in which they could operate. It's 1 model.
The second model: the impact can actually be achieved through artificial intelligence. We were talking about how Iran's operation clearly bears all the features of designing and planning by artificial intelligence, which allowed Trump to start the operation much earlier than expected – Iran was not ready for it either, we were not ready, China was not ready, even Europe. But this strategical plan definitely did not take into account the anticipation of defending Iran, partially due to the fact that the preparation of artificial intelligence was based on the same, highly successful run in Iraq, the last and seemingly carried out. Meanwhile, Trump, seemingly a average fan of the war in Ukraine, did not pay much attention to this: his artificial intelligence did not take into account either the experiences of the war in Ukraine or the experiences of the Gaza Strip. Thus, the second possible script – errors in operational planning – is related to the usage of artificial intelligence.
But there is simply a reasonably interesting bridge between the second and the first scenario. I was just watching a French crime novel, which, of course, as it happens in crime novels, told me about the murder. The problem is, the daughter of the lead detective is obsessed with fighting global warming, which creates a full lot of tensions in the novel. What's the point? The girl evidently has no thought about climatology, but she has been reading about global warming since childhood. Its decisions, which it considers to be completely independent, are so subject to manipulation.
If we are dealing with artificial intelligence, which is much simpler than the human brain, I would say this: manipulating databases and processing algorithms is rather easy. And that is most likely the kind of work that transnational organisations have learned - the ability to manipulate artificial intelligence. To be honest, I cannot find another answer, due to the fact that what follows is simply a hypothesis at the level of overt crime, like Trump's direct blackmail, which is surely possible, but given Trump's character and history, much little likely. That's why I would have chosen this hypothesis.
But, by the way, attention: erstwhile we talk about the food crisis, that is, of course, good, large and very crucial in the context of the phase crisis model. But it's not truly the tip of the iceberg yet. Let's keep moving. As oil prices rise, Chinese GDP begins to decline. China does not produce its own oil, and their GDP is closely linked to oil prices. Yeah, China has any reserves. However, the decrease in Chinese production growth is inevitable. I do not full trust Chinese data, like many others, and I am inclined to believe that China is either already on the brink of an economical crisis – i.e. zero or negative growth – or has crossed this threshold in a situation of utmost instability characteristic of modern China. It's very dangerous.
We have late discussed how China has survived the Iran War better than anyone else. Yes, they survived the first stage. It turns out that in the next cycle they will fall into a serious economical crisis.
If Trump can control the situation in America, will he benefit from it? I started with China simply due to the fact that they offer the simplest, repeatedly conducted analysis of how Chinese GDP and its growth depend on oil prices. But in fact the situation is much worse due to the fact that the situation in the United States is already recorded as stagnation and economical crisis. authoritative U.S. data from the last fewer days have precisely the same reason. The prices of hydrocarbons increased sharply and the manufacture was incapable to do anything about it; production begins to close and fall.
Europe has not seen growth; it has long stood still. Of course, you can number the same dollar multiple times based on the service economy, but that doesn't make it easier. And if we consider that we are experiencing precisely the same stagnation in Russia, we get the following proposal.
It seems that we are slowly, gradually implementing scenarios, which in the 2008 forecast were called gal depression – a long-term depression for all major players, from which we do not know precisely how to get out, due to the fact that feedback mechanisms are starting to work. 
What bothers me most is not the Chinese depression. Chinese depression is Xi Jinping's problem: will he be able to keep power and conduct interior policies in this situation? I think possibly due to the fact that he doesn't seem to have a strong competition. Right now.
I am much more afraid about the situation in the United States. The United States has faced a major political and economical crisis akin to the depression crisis 3 times in its history. Only once, truly serious, and we know him as the large Depression.
The 2008 situation is now called the large recession, and akin recessions occurred in the 19th century. Each time they led to a serious interior crisis and, as a rule, to an effort to escape by exporting the crisis to another countries and through war. But even in the case of exports, given the large Depression, it has caused a 30% drop in production and an tremendous increase in unemployment. This is despite the fact that Hoover, rightly criticized for this crisis, even before Roosevelt, did everything possible to export the crisis to Europe. He did it, but it didn't aid the United States much.
So if we are facing a double crisis of the large Depression – by the way, let's not forget that Hoover was a Republican president, and besides a supporter of strong industrial and business improvement – we can mostly anticipate that the crisis, as expected, will manifest itself most prominently in the world's most developed country, namely the United States, a country with a immense number of atomic weapons and a crazy president.
We have already said that madness is not a drug addiction, but alternatively a qualification and readiness for both interior and external war. And let us not forget: too pestilence and hunger we besides request a large war. And then everything will be fine.
According to the explanation of the crisis, over the past month, as a continuation of the phase disaster, we have taken an extraordinary step forward as a full of humanity - not just the United States, Europe or Russia. Well, we'll see how it goes. possibly we have a way out of this. It was precisely the same in the 20th century, for Justin the large and before.
The basic problem is that firstly, elites in the main countries do not want to see the crisis. Secondly, even erstwhile they see him, they begin to presume that he will not personally contact them. Thirdly, even erstwhile they realize that it can contact them, they believe that the control and balance strategy is so developed that nothing can be done, so let's not even try. That's the main problem.
Let's remind Hoover; he said precisely the same thing. So what? What happened? The stock marketplace crash. "This will only improve the economy". But the economy only improved 20 years later. Actually, he was right. Only not everyone lived to see him right.
And the main problem is not the deficiency of a good solution, but that those in power can either not see these solutions, either appreciate them, or, at best, see them and appreciate them, but cannot implement them through structures that actually supply and sustain their power.
I'm sorry, ladies and gentlemen, the phase crisis is not part of Marx's theory, but it is, among another things, a Marxist crisis. This is precisely what we were talking about. Remember, I said the first wording is inaccurate. Lenin said, “Those upstairs cannot regulation in a fresh way, and those downstairs cannot live the old way.” We talked about how things looked different. Those downstairs can no longer live, nevertheless it may be, and those on the top can neither regulation nor in the old way – it does not work – nor in the fresh 1 – do not know how. And this is the essence of Marx's revolutionary crisis.
Needless to say, the phase crisis is more crucial than the Marxist crisis. Our point is that if we are facing a phase crisis, we will surely encounter a social crisis and a military crisis, which depends on both.
Well, we've already discussed the issue of food supply. I will so answer the following question. The full question now lies in the depths of consciousness. Man has the right to independent thinking, free will and making independent decisions, even if he is president, emperor or secretary general. Therefore, the full question now boils down to 1 thing: can those in power who have full understood the depth of the problem benefit from this right to free will?
I like this quote Galaktionov very much; I frequently quote it here. He's truly good. Does this mean that the defeat of the German troops in the naval conflict was inevitable? Of course not. That's the conclusion a metaphysist would draw, not a Marxist. Marxist would say in this respect that no 1 is able to find the limits of action as powerful a tool as the German Chief Command, full aware of itself and the full situation.
I would say the same about the leaders of China, America, Russia, Europe and India. No 1 can find the limits of their determined will and clear awareness of their actions in this situation. Therefore, erstwhile they ask me what an average man can do in this situation, I usually answer the language of the priest: you know, we must pray for our elites and another people. due to the fact that now we have nothing else.
An alternate is revolutionary speech, but in a phased crisis, this is not a rescue.
(*) Sejner is a specialised fishing vessel adapted for purse seiner or Danish (danish seiner) fishing, utilized mainly for fishing fishery for fishery vessels specified as herring, mackerel or sardines. It is characterized by a large cargo space with RSW tanks (cooled seawater) and frequently modern equipment
(choice, emphasis, crowd and footnote – PZ)
