Recent polls – at least those prepared for Virtual Poland – show an increase in support of the Civic Coalition and a slight decline for the Law and Justice. In fact, however, for respective months, both parties have been going almost "head to head". Can fear of aggression from Russia make Donald Tusk's government stay in power?
Łukasz Pawłowski – president of the Polish investigation Group
In sociology, this phenomenon is called “the gathering around the flag”. It is that in emergency situations society is instinctively united around the rulers. We want power to give us a sense of safety and stability. It was the same during the Covid-19 pandemic, likewise after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, and besides at the time erstwhile the drones entered Poland.
When it comes to polls, you gotta remember that this is nothing new. Already in the presidential run before the second round, we had studies that indicated that Rafał Trzaskowski wins 60 to 40. As you can see, reality has turned out to be completely different. Our investigation shows present that the Civic Coalition is in first place due to the fact that it has mostly taken over the support of smaller groups. If elections were held now, only KO – PSL would enter the Sejm. Poland 2050 and the Left would not exceed the electoral threshold. However, in the last 2 months, both support for the Civic Coalition and the Law and Justice organization have been growing. This is the consequence of polarization – we have 2 main centres of power: Donald Tusk and Karol Nawrocki. Their rivalry drives support for both sides. Interestingly, in the face of danger, these 2 centres were able to communicate, but only briefly. In Poland specified "national consents" last no more than 48 hours, but even this short agreement is noted and rewarded by voters.
It's not a election! This is simply a political fraud! Fool K. Krupa
The drone incidental will affect the polls for a long time?
It depends on whether this happens again. If the threat is permanent or regular, then it will surely affect the politicians and attitudes of the voters. If it was a single episode, the effect will be short-lived. It can already be seen that after these 2 days of political unity, the parties have returned to their ‘traditional bulge’. What truly mattered was the interest of Poles in politics that day. This was evident after the news stations were watching – people were following the news, wanting to know what was going on. They needed a clear signal: we are united, we have national consent, we are like 1 fist. And that's the signal they got. Both major political centres benefited from this. But after 48 hours we returned to the known pattern – common accusations that individual does not care about the Polish soldier or reacts badly. It's nothing new.
PANICA in government?! Bartoszewicz without pity: “This is absurd.”
What about underestimating the polls? Why do different tests show different results?
From our point of view, it does not substance whether a organization is underestimated or overestimated. It's crucial that investigation renders reality as accurately as possible. The final verification is always the election. If the polls are powerfully different from reality, it means that something in methodology has failed.
The causes of specified mistakes may be many, but the most common are money. You save yourself from research. alternatively of telephone probes, which are more expensive, e.g. net investigation – cheaper but little accurate. The cost of investigation translates straight into their quality. If Polish media were to focus more on quality alternatively than quantity, then investigation centres would focus more on reliability. We effort to keep a advanced level – from this we are known and frequently rewarded for it. But our investigation is not among the cheapest and there are not so many in public circulation. So we're back to square 1 – money is very crucial for the quality of research, as it is for many things in life.
How do you view the conflict between the Law and the Confederation, especially Jarosław Kaczyński and Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak? Is this a real dispute, or is it a theatre for fighting over voters?
WThere are no "real conflicts" in the sense that we realize them. Conflicts in politics always concern the same – who gets more votes. Politics is mostly a theatre. It is frequently said that politicians are celebrities who were unfit for amusement television, so they took up politics.
As regards the relations between the Law and the Confederation, they are bilateral. On the 1 hand, both parties compete powerfully due to the fact that they search the same voter – conservative, right-wing, frequently from smaller centres. On the another hand, they are doomed to each another due to the fact that without the Confederacy, a majority government cannot be created. The Confederacy by who its voters are must cooperate with the Law and Justice. The difference is only how much support it will get – 20, 50 or 80 tickets. Depends on what the future coalition looks like. I'm not amazed at this competition. They may only surprise the means that both sides use, but in Polish politics we have seen worse conflicts, after which there was cooperation.
Jarosław Kaczyński announced that in 2027 PiS would return to power alone. Is that possible?
We looked at 2 scenarios: the first – whether PiS can have an independent majority, and the second – whether a constitutional majority is possible for the full right (PiS, Confederation, Grzegorz Braun). The border in both cases is the number of seats which translates into support in elections. It was clear – both scenarios are impossible with the current level of support. For the right to have an independent majority, she would gotta win at least 57.5 percent of the vote. However, historically no group in Poland exceeded 52–53 percent. Something groundbreaking would gotta happen on the political scene, and there's no indication of that today.
‘They took distant my IGS. And so I returned to the engine” — NATHALA Malishewska
Would PiS have had a better chance if Jarosław Kaczyński stepped aside into political shadow?
It should be noted that Jarosław Kaczyński has been in the shadows for many years. After his 2005–07 term, erstwhile he was Prime Minister and PiS lost the election, he drew a lesson – individual else should be at the head of the government. And so it was: First Andrzej Duda as a presidential candidate, then Beata Szydło, Mateusz Morawiecki, present Karol Nawrocki. Kaczyński is simply a large strategist in choosing people to be the faces of the party. He himself remains in the background and decides on key movements. This distinguishes him from Donald Tusk, who is always at the forefront, as a leader and prime minister. Kaczyński's strategy has been successful and will most likely continue.
Who can become the Prime Minister candidate for the Law and Justice?
In my opinion, there is simply a kind of "casting", akin to the election of a presidential candidate. Then Kaczyński had clear guidelines: this is to be a stable, strong man, handsome, speaking languages. And finally, the election came on Karol Nawrocki, who turned out to be a jackpot due to the fact that he became president. It'll be the same now. The candidate for Prime Minister must be a man, preferably in his late 40s, due to the fact that safety issues and competition with the Confederacy require a candidate who will be well received by a younger right-wing electorate. It should besides come from a smaller centre, due to the fact that the conflict between the elites of large cities and the alleged people is very real. It is crucial not to be associated with the governments of the Law and Justice in the last 8 years – it must look like a fresh opening. specified candidates can be found both among Members, Euro MPs and local governments of the Law and Justice.
