I contributed to the Citizens' survey fundraiser and I don't regret it. The poll results will not have a real impact on the final form of the ballots, but I look at them differently.
General questions on worldview, economical and European Union issues can be analysed on the basis of the full surveyed group of 4000 people, which is not frequently the case in another polls. Detailed results are public and give a truly interesting image of Polish society at the beginning of the election campaign.
I hope that the results of the survey will be utilized by specialists for interesting analyses. I was opened to groups of youngest voters. I have the feeling that the opposition, in order to win the election, must find ways to convince itself of these voters. It's not a large group, but getting to it present is more crucial than a common list.
Opinions in the Civic Survey
These are the answers to the general questions, not the electoral preferences:
- Abortion
Opinion one: Abortion of pregnancy should be strictly prohibited but where pregnancy endangers the life of a woman,
Second opinion: Until 12 weeks of pregnancy, a female should have the right to decide to discontinue her pregnancy.
These results are clear – after 8 years of the regulation of the Law and Justice, Polish society powerfully advocates the liberalisation of abortion rights. Among voters 18-24 is simply a dominant attitude, but besides among voters 60+ there are more people who want abortion on request up to 12 weeks of pregnancy than a full ban on abortion (in this age group 41.1% chose the opinion of the first, 9.1% consequence "it is hard to say"). In consequence to the question about abortion, there is besides a definite difference between age groups 18-24 and 25-29.
- Fighting inflation
Opinion one: With advanced inflation, spending from the state budget, especially on pensions and public sector salaries, should be increased to keep up with rising prices,
Second opinion: With advanced inflation, erstwhile everything is expensive, spending from the state budget should be reduced and the interest rate on loans increased as shortly as possible in order to reduce price increases.
This economical question shows whether it is more crucial to fight the causes of inflation (reduction of budgetary expenditure and raising interest rates) or to mitigate the effects of inflation by valorising wages and pensions. In consequence to this question, there is simply a crucial difference between men and women who want to address the causes of inflation much more. The answers of the youngest adult Poles are much more focused on eliminating the causes of inflation than older age groups.
- Poland in the European Union
Opinion one: Within the framework of the European Union, Poland should strive for maximum independence.
2nd Opinion: Within the European Union, Poland should strive for the top possible integration
The answers to this question show that the views of the 18-24 age group are very different from those of the 25-29 age group. The youngest voters powerfully advocate greater integration within the Union.
- Religion
The definition of religion on a scale of 1-5, where 1 means that religion plays small or no meaning and the responsive does not participate in spiritual practices at all. 5 means that religion is very crucial to a individual and participation in spiritual practices at least erstwhile a week
In these answers, you can see how insignificant religion is for the 18-24 age group and how different this group is from the remainder of society. For age groups 25-29, 30-39, 40-49, the percent of people declaring low religion is very similar. Older people have a small more religiousity, but what is interesting is that the age group 25-29 is closer in consequence to the category 60+ than to the group 18-24.
Electoral preferences
In order to realize the declared electoral behaviour, the most interesting for me are the results of the answers, where all major political parties competing separately are available. The "wide" category Non-voters include all respondents who were not determined whether they would take part in the elections and those who declare that they would not go to the elections.
The first conclusion of these results – voters 60+ are elected to the election, only 28.8% of them are not convinced to participate in the election. Conversely, it is in age categories 18-24 and 25-29, where more than 58% are not convinced to participate in the election.
The differences in electoral behaviour between men and women are significant. A prominently male organization is the Confederate who wants to vote for 9.3% of men and only 2.7% of women. Women more frequently than men declare voting for the Left – 6.6% (4.5% men). 6.8% of men declare voting for another party, importantly more than women, for whom these are only 3.3% indications. Women more frequently than men declare a deficiency of firm interest in elections – 42.9% to 39% for men.
Voters 18-24
The most interesting thing for me is the distribution of electoral behaviour in age groups. In age categories 18-24 and 25-29 are trace numbers of KO and PSL voters, there are besides fewer PiS voters, although this organization in category 25-29 is more popular than KO, PSL, Poland 2050. We request to consider the tiny number of these age groups in the survey, so we should not draw besides far conclusions from these results. The age profile of KO and PiS voters is very akin – the older the more. There is besides a clear age profile of Confederate voters – they are the most among young people, and among voters 50-59 and 60+ is the least selected party. The left besides has voters mostly among young people, but for her is besides an crucial age category of 60+.
When we analyse the age group 18-24 divided by a woman/man, we see that electoral behaviour is very interesting here. Both women and men are dominated by the attitude of not engaging in elections, and only 2 of the parties count, Confederation among men (25.2%), Left among women (20.7%). The 3rd organization with much little support is Poland 2050.
This distribution of organization preferences in age groups is essential for the raging election campaign.
The popularity of PiS over the last 8 years has been maintained at the price of massive social transfers, funded by rising debt. As a society, we have come to a very serious intergenerational conflict. The oldest will go massively to the elections to keep the privileges of the 13th and 14th retirements, and the youngest will lose the sense of participating in the elections due to the fact that the main political parties are not curious in this group of voters. The youngest may halt believing that the PiS can be stripped of power in elections. Nor do they see their problems addressed by the main opposition party. Knowing that it will be on them to pay the debts generated by the Law and Justice governments, they search a organization that will reduce social transfers. present it is simply a Confederate. Since 2020 Poland 2050 has lost its attractiveness to the youngest, and the alliance with PSL only accelerates this process. The Left is an attractive organization for the youngest women, but its possible alliance with the KO results in the biggest withdrawal from the election and in part transfer of votes to the Confederation. For voters from the 50+ age group, changing political preferences from the Left to the Confederate is unimaginable, but among the youngest voters joining their preferred organization to the KO coalition is, as you can see, unforgivable.
Real Independent Candidates on Election Lists
The political parties of the mainstream seem to realize that they are not attractive to the youngest voters. Young people tweeted:
It is simply a good initiative to show where the Confederacy is akin to the Law and Justice. The youngest voters add to this table the category of social transfers and here the Young .Modern by the PPO prism are perceived the same as PiS . Young people .Modern is not a political force that can be voted for and will always be seen only as a youth of the organization which present is part of the KO.
KOs should invitation youth activists to their electoral lists, without any preliminaries, on a clear basis, that if they become MPs, they will be independent MPs. specified candidates will not be competing for another KO candidates due to the fact that they will address an electorate to which KO in the current election expression does not reach. In order to realize the difference between the activist of the 20-year-old, and the activist of the 50-year-old, I urge watching Malwina Chmara's statements from the election debate organised by Citizen Toruń, the relation with references to the recordings from the debate is HERE.
The left should keep a clear separation between the candidates of the parties together and the rest. Adrian Zandberg does not request to talk of war reparations from the Germans and pensions, and he should focus only on subjects crucial to young people. The Left should besides search truly independent activists of twenty-year-olds on its electoral lists.
Poland 2050 with an alliance with the PSL of its youngest voters most likely effectively discouraged. This alliance is seen as being included on a spiritual scale, and this is how the results of the Citizens' survey for the youngest voters show the red line.
It is good that the Citizens' survey happened now, at the beginning of the election campaign, due to the fact that it gives serious analytical material on how to scope different groups of voters. Clearly, the democratic opposition has a lot to do, and it will be crucial to choice candidates on the electoral lists. There must be truly independent candidates on them, so that any group that wants to remove the Law and Justice from power finds its candidate to vote for.
Photo: The origin for the graphic is stream ♪ I don't know ♪ from the debate on the results of the civilian poll
