The Hungarians have fought 2 energy battles recently. After them, they engaged in blackmailing Brussels and in a very delicate subject – sanctions against Russia. They played theirs, but it's only the beginning of the road.
Viktor Orbán fought Kiev with 2 energetic battles. 1 over oil erstwhile Kiev cut off Łukoil, the main supplier of Hungarian and Slovakia refinery https://myślpolska.info/2024/11/21/game-fight-o-rope-with-kiyov-i-Brussels/, the second to extend Russian gas transit through Ukraine https://myślpolska.info/2025/01/27/who-win-on-break-Ukrainian-transit/). He won the first thanks to a thoughtful oil transfer operation on the Belarusian border. The second conflict – for gas – was lost, as Brussels and Washington, the 2 most crucial players (then playing hand in hand) decided to halt supplying Russian gas to Europe.
After the turn of the gas tap by Ukraine on 1 January 2025, nothing catastrophic happened – gas flows in central Europe turned, countries of the region, without supplies from the east began to receive gas from their western neighbours. They lost so logistically (further from the origin of supplies, more intermediaries along the way), as well as of course – financially.
However, the Prime Minister of Hungary has not stopped fighting Brussels, cutting Russia off with an axe from the countries of Central Europe. For a very simple reason: sanctions are causing Hungary losses, and this is crucial – EUR 19.5 billion (more than PLN 100 billion) in 3 years.
When the Western global and liberal forces were united, Viktor Orbán had to agree to adverse solutions under massive force from Brussels and Washington. erstwhile better times came – he tried to play something more for a tiny and insignificant country like Hungary. As he describes it in a picturesque way: “Two dense shoes pressed the cage to the ground: 1 — the progressives from Brussels and the another — the liberal administration of the United States. Now the force has halved."
He called on Brussels to "pull sanctions out the window and establish a relation free of them with Russia". He asked any rhetorical questions: “Did they end the war? Nope. Did they crush the Russian economy? Nope. Did the EU replace Russian energy with another inexpensive natural materials? No’. He concluded: "The actions of the Brussels bureaucrats achieved 1 thing: they destroyed the competitiveness of the EU economy".
On January 24, Prime Minister Orbán puts the European Commission on an ultimatum. "Hungary lost $19 billion due to sanctions, so I pulled a hand brake, it can't go on like this anymore". He argues: “Without our help, the economy and the conflict of Ukraine would not last a day. However, Ukrainians hit our gas supply. So we just stand there and say: dear Ukrainian friends, we realize everything, but let Russian gas pass! How do you want to enter the European Union if you are messing with the countries of Central Europe? This has to stop!” He demands that Brussels force Kiev to resume Russian gas transit.
The Prime Minister of Hungary presented the conditions which the Commission has undertaken to comply with. Firstly, the Ukrainians must open the transit of gas from Russia to Central Europe, secondly, Ukraine cannot attack the gas transmission line, as it did at the border with Russia and thirdly, must guarantee that nothing akin happens to the transmission of oil.
Péter Szijjártó, head of the Ministry of abroad Affairs, explains that only the guarantees of the Commission, a joint declaration by all countries of the request for safety of supply by Ukraine, will let Hungary to approve the extension of sanctions. Brussels has bent, Budapest has played its part, the European Commission has declared its readiness to talk to Kiev about extending transit and participating in these talks between Budapest and Bratislava and, in general, on safety of energy supply to Central Europe. It can be said that “only declarations”, but she never wanted to hear about it before.
Viktor Orbán said: “We had to stand up so hard. Otherwise we will be pushers and Hungarians will pay for Ukraine's insolence". He asked himself openly: “We have received guarantees from the Commission, and I wonder if they will keep them. If not, sanctions against Russia will simply be repealed." A unanimous extension of sanctions by all associate States is required all six months. 1 country's opposition eliminates the full achievements of Brussels from cutting off the Old Continent from Russia.
The conflict for the Brussels Hungarian commitments won. But as they do – word war is only a margin of real energy policy. We'll proceed soon.
Andrzej Szczęsniak
Think Poland, No. 9-10 (2-9.03.2025)
